The Horn of Africa on the Brink: analysing the Ethiopia-Eritrea Crisis, Sea Access, and the Fight for Sovereignty
The Horn of Africa stands at a perilous crossroads, where the echoes of past wars threaten to drown out the fragile hope for peace. At the heart of this escalating crisis lies a dangerous stalemate between Ethiopia and Eritrea, fuelled by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s declaration that sovereign sea access is “inevitable” and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki’s resolute refusal to negotiate under threat. This geopolitical struggle, however, is merely the surface of a far deeper conflict. Within Ethiopia, the regime’s aggressive posturing masks a brutal internal war against its own people, exemplified by the righteous resistance of FANO freedom fighters in Amhara and other regions fighting against centralised oppression. This comprehensive analysis delves into the multifaceted layers of this crisis: from the military brinkmanship and the crucial role of Sudanese-made Safaroog drones, to the deafening silence of the African Union and the cynical weaponisation of nationalism. We examine the high-stakes international diplomacy of the US and UK, the internal purges of officials like Bacha Debele, and the profound human cost that another devastating war would inflict. Ultimately, this is a story of power, sovereignty, and the unbreakable spirit of a people determined to secure a future built not on coercion and conflict, but on justice, dialogue, and genuine Pan-Horn unity.
Introduction
In the heart of the Horn of Africa, a storm is gathering. The very soul of our nation, Ethiopia, is being tested once more. For centuries, we have stood as a beacon of independence, never bowing to colonial masters. Today, a different struggle unfolds—one fought not only on battlefields but in the halls of power, the whispers of diplomacy, and the resilience of our people. The recent tensions with Eritrea, the internal political manoeuvring, and the shifting allegiances are not merely news headlines; they are chapters in our ongoing story of resistance and self-determination. This article delves into the critical issues shaping Ethiopia’s present and future, from the high-stakes diplomacy over sea access to the unwavering courage of our freedom fighters. It is a call to understand, to reflect, and to stand firm in defence of what is rightfully ours.
20 Key Points and Arguments
An Inheritance of Sovereignty: Why We Do Not Beg for What Is Rightfully Ours
In the highlands of Ethiopia, where the thin air carries the whispers of ancient kings and the unyielding spirit of a people never conquered, there exists a sacred covenant between the land and its children. It is a covenant of sovereignty, paid for in the blood of our ancestors at Adwa and upheld through centuries of fierce independence. This is not merely history; it is the very bedrock of our identity. And so, when we speak of access to the sea, we are not speaking of a mere economic convenience. We are speaking of a historical right, a geographical imperative, and a national destiny. The current notion that Ethiopia must posture, plead, or bargain for what is rightfully hers is not just a failed policy—it is a profound insult to our legacy.
There is an adage our elders repeat, one that has guided us through generations of struggle: “The lion’s share is not begged for; it is taken by the might of the lion.” This is not a call for mindless aggression, but a declaration of principle. A lion does not lower itself to beg from the jackal. It carries itself with the innate dignity and strength bestowed by the Creator. For too long, our diplomacy has resembled the whimper of the supplicant rather than the reasoned roar of the sovereign.
Consider our history. When the waves of colonial ambition crashed against our shores, it was Emperor Menelik II who, with a combination of shrewd diplomacy and unparalleled military resolve, ensured Ethiopia was the sole African lion that kept its crown. He did not beg for his nation’s sovereignty; he guaranteed it through strategic strength and unity. The Battle of Adwa in 1896 was not a negotiation; it was a statement—a statement that reverberated across the globe that Ethiopia treats with equals, not with superiors. Today, however, we see our leaders employing a language of desperation, attempting to justify a cause that, for any other nation, would require no justification. A nation of over 100 million people, the second-most populous in Africa, an economic engine of the region, is being forced to plead for a port? This is an absurdity that would be comical if it were not so tragically demeaning.
This demeaning posture is felt most acutely by our brave Freedom Fighters in the FANO and other movements, who watch from the front lines as the nation’s dignity is bartered in foreign halls. These fighters understand the true meaning of sacrifice. They do not take up arms for a monthly salary or for political favour; they do so to protect the very essence of Ethiopia from those who would see it fractured, weakened, and brought to its knees. They fight against the erosion of our identity, both from internal oppression and from external pressure. To them, and to all Ethiopians who remember the weight of our history, the current approach to the sea is a betrayal of the principle they are willing to die for.
Furthermore, this narrative of begging fundamentally misreads the situation with Eritrea. Asmara’s intransigence is built upon a foundation of our own making. When we frame our right as a request, we implicitly validate their ability to deny it. President Isaias Afwerki is a strategist who respects strength and exploits weakness. Our current posture—a blend of public threats and private pleading—projects not strength, but chaotic inconsistency. It has allowed him to cast Ethiopia as the regional bully in the eyes of the international community, while he portrays himself as the defender of a smaller nation’s sovereignty. We have handed him the perfect propaganda tool, all because we forgot our own playbook: you negotiate with equals from a position of unshakeable principle and quiet, undeniable strength.
The path forward is not through empty threats or undignified pleas. It is through the rediscovery of our own historical sovereignty. It is through internal unity, economic resilience, and a diplomatic corps that carries the dignified resolve of Menelik’s envoys, not the begging bowl of a debtor nation. Our cause is just. Our right is historical. Our need is logical.We must remember who we are. We are the descendants of lions, not jackals. And a lion knows its share; it does not beg for it. It is time our roar echoed once more, not just on the battlefield, but in the chancelleries of the world, reminding everyone of a simple, timeless truth: Ethiopia’s destiny is not subject to another’s permission.
The Sea Access Imperative: A Cause Worth a Wise Fight, Not a Reckless War
The Prime Minister’s declaration that sea access for Ethiopia is ‘inevitable’ is a sentiment that resonates in the heart of every true patriot. On this, he speaks a hard truth. For a nation of our stature, history, and economic potential to remain shackled, a landlocked prisoner dependent on the goodwill of neighbours, is an affront to both our past and our future. The economic argument is unassailable; sovereign port access is the lifeblood of a modern economy, the artery through which the wealth of a nation flows. Yet, in his approach, the Prime Minister confuses the roar of the lion for the bluster of the jackal. He is right in his ends but dangerously wrong in his means. True strength, as our ancestors knew, is not demonstrated through reckless threats but through the unwavering, strategic application of principle and power.
There is an adage from the highlands that our Freedom Fighters in the FANO understand in their very bones: “A wise hunter does not shout his intention from the mountain top; he reads the wind, learns the path of his prey, and strikes with precision when the time is right.” The current government’s strategy is all shout and no hunt. By publicly threatening war, flexing military muscle, and purging sober-minded officials in favour of sycophants, they have telegraphed every intention to Eritrea and the world. This has not forced Asmara to the table; it has fortified its resolve, given it the moral high ground of a nation under threat, and rallied international diplomats to its defence. This is not strength; it is a catastrophic failure of strategy that isolates Ethiopia and makes the peaceful attainment of our goal infinitely harder.
The economic imperative is undeniable. Every birr added to the cost of a container through transit fees at Djibouti’s ports is a birr stolen from the development of our schools, our hospitals, and our industries. It is a strategic vulnerability that leaves our national security at the mercy of foreign agreements. This economic strangulation is what our Freedom Fighters resist—not just the bullet and the tank, but the slow death of our nation’s potential. They fight for an Ethiopia that is not just free from internal oppression but is also sovereign in its economic destiny. To them, access to the sea is synonymous with breathing room, with survival, with the ability to finally stand tall and self-reliant.
However, the pursuit of this goal must be as dignified as the goal itself. The Prime Minister’s threats and the erratic purging of anyone deemed insufficiently hawkish reveal a desperation that undermines our cause. It makes our pursuit seem like an avaricious land-grab rather than the righteous claim of a nation seeking its natural and historical rights. This plays directly into the hands of President Isaias Afwerki, a master strategist who thrives on the chaos of others. He now sits back, the defender of a smaller nation’s territorial integrity, while our government is cast as the regional bully in the international press. We have handed him a propaganda victory on a silver platter.The path to the sea was never going to be won by loud speeches in Addis Ababa. It will be forged through a combination of unshakeable internal unity, relentless diplomatic ingenuity, and the quiet, formidable strength that gives others pause. It requires building a economy so powerful and a political union so strong that the world sees the logic of our cause and the necessity of accommodating it. It means making Ethiopia an indispensable regional partner, not a feared threat.
The FANO Freedom Fighters and other righteous resistance groups understand this dichotomy perfectly. They do not fight merely for a change of face in the palace; they fight for a change in the very soul of our governance. They fight for a leadership that understands that true inevitability is not declared—it is built. It is built with the wisdom of the hunter, not the recklessness of a charging bull. The sea is our destiny. But we must navigate to it with the skill of ancient seafarers, not crash against the rocks like a doomed ship. Our right is just, but our approach must be wiser. Our cause is inevitable, but only if we are smart enough to make it so.
Diplomatic Brinkmanship: The Dangerous Art of Dancing on the Precipice
The current path chosen by the government in Addis Ababa—a volatile cocktail of public threats and military sabre-rattling aimed at forcing Eritrea to the negotiating table—is not statecraft. It is a form of diplomatic gambling, a reckless game of brinkmanship where the stakes are the very lives of millions and the stability of the entire Horn of Africa. While the goal of securing Ethiopia’s rightful access to the sea is a national imperative, this strategy is a dangerously flawed instrument. It risks alienating the entire world and pushing our region to the edge of a devastating abyss from which there may be no return.
There is an old Ethiopian adage that speaks directly to this folly: “He who tries to frighten a snake by stepping on its tail will soon learn the difference between courage and a lack of sense.” The current administration, in its desperate quest for a legacy, is stomping on the tail of a serpent that has long known how to bite. President Isaias Afwerki in Asmara is not a leader easily cowed by public ultimatums; he is a strategist forged in decades of conflict who understands that such bluster often masks internal weakness and strategic desperation. Every threat issued from Addis Ababa does not make him more pliable; it makes him more prepared, more resolved, and more justified in the eyes of an international community that instinctively rallies behind the nation perceived to be under threat.
This misguided brinkmanship is a gift to our adversaries and a curse to our cause. Firstly, it alienates potential allies. The Gulf States, who have interests in both nations, will not choose a side that appears belligerent. The African Union, headquartered in our own capital, is forced into a corner, unable to support a member state that seems to be threatening the sacred principle of territorial integrity it is sworn to uphold. The Europeans and Americans, who have repeatedly stated that military force is “unacceptable,” are now funneling their diplomacy towards restraining Ethiopia, not engaging with our legitimate grievances. We have managed to turn a just cause into a perceived threat, isolating ourselves at the very moment we need the broadest possible coalition.
Secondly, and most terrifyingly, this game risks a miscalculation that could ignite a conflict no one can control. Moving troops, establishing command posts, and issuing bellicose statements creates a momentum of its own. In the fog of tension, a single skirmish on a contested border, a misread manoeuvre, or a panicked soldier’s shot could spiral into a full-scale war. The government plays this game thinking it can control the escalation, but war, once unleashed, has a voracious appetite that consumes all who summon it. The children of Tigray, Afar, and Amhara have already borne the brunt of one war; they cannot bear another fought for the vanity of politicians.
This is where the resolve of our Ethiopian Freedom Fighters, including the brave souls in FANO, stands in stark contrast to the government’s posturing. They do not engage in brinkmanship; they engage in sacrifice. Their fight in the mountains and valleys of Wollo and Gondar is not a game. It is a principled struggle for justice, autonomy, and a vision of Ethiopia that is not held hostage by the reckless ambitions of a single ruling party. They understand that true strength is not demonstrated in loud threats but in quiet, unwavering resilience. They fight for the soul of the nation, knowing that an Ethiopia that is not free and just within its own borders can never truly be sovereign beyond them.
The pursuit of the sea must be reconceived. It must be waged not with the language of threats, but with the unassailable power of a united, democratic, and economically vibrant Ethiopia that commands respect, not fear. It requires a diplomacy that is as deep and patient as the sea we seek, building alliances based on mutual interest and principled argument, not on coercion.
Brinkmanship is the strategy of the gambler, not the statesman. It is a betrayal of our people’s hope for peace and a betrayal of the dignified legacy of our ancestors. We must remember: you cannot build a lasting future on the foundation of a threatened explosion. The path to the sea must be paved with wisdom, not littered with the debris of a war we were foolish enough to start.International Interference: The Wolf’s Concern for the Lamb’s Well-Being
The sudden, keen interest of Western powers—the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union—in mediating the tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea should be met not with gratitude, but with profound and clear-eyed suspicion. To believe their involvement is purely altruistic is a dangerous naivety that history has repeatedly warned us against. Their diplomacy, draped in the language of peace and regional stability, is invariably tailored to serve their own strategic and economic interests in the Horn of Africa. While we must engage with the world, we must do so with the unwavering principle that no external solution that compromises a single inch of our sovereignty is worth considering.
An ancient Amharic adage encapsulates perfectly this dynamic: “When the wolf offers to mediate a dispute between the sheep, it is not justice he seeks, but a better view of the flock.” The US, UK, and EU are not neutral arbiters; they are strategic players with a long history of viewing our region through a lens of self-interest. Their primary goals are not Ethiopian prosperity or Eritrean sovereignty, but the containment of Chinese influence, the securing of trade routes, the control of migration flows, and access to strategic ports and military bases. Our national struggles are merely chess pieces on their grand geopolitical board. They will happily sacrifice a pawn to checkmate a rival, and we must never forget that we are the pawns in their game.
Let us be under no illusion: their sudden flurry of diplomatic activity is not to champion Ethiopia’s rightful cause for sea access. It is to prevent a war that would destabilise a region crucial to their global interests. Their shuttle diplomacy between Addis Ababa and Asmara is a mission of containment, not of justice. They have clearly stated that military force is “unacceptable,” not because they cherish Eritrean sovereignty, but because a conflict would threaten the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, invite further Chinese and Russian meddling, and create another humanitarian crisis they would be forced to manage. Their priority is the status quo—a calm Horn that is amenable to their influence—not a just resolution that addresses Ethiopia’s historical and economic imprisonment.
Furthermore, their solutions often come with invisible chains. They speak of “dialogue” and “engagement,” but the terms of that dialogue are often set in Washington, London, and Brussels, not in Addis Ababa or Asmara. Their mediation can often lead to externally imposed agreements that create dependency, force concessions that serve their interests over ours, and compromise our ability to determine our own future. We have seen this pattern before, where their aid and support are conditional on adopting policies that benefit their corporations and their geopolitical standing, not our farmers or our industries.This is why the struggle of the Ethiopian Freedom Fighters, including the gallant forces of FANO, is so intrinsically linked to resisting this foreign manipulation. Their fight is not merely against internal oppression; it is a fight for the very soul of Ethiopian self-determination. They understand that a nation that is not free from external strings cannot be free within its own borders. A government in Addis Ababa that is beholden to Western donors for political survival or economic aid cannot possibly negotiate from a position of strength on matters of national survival like the sea. True sovereignty—the kind worth fighting for—means the ability to engage with the world on our terms, from a position of internal unity and strength, not from a position of subservience.
We must therefore beware of external saviours. Our cause is just, but it is ours to win. The path to the sea and to true national dignity will not be found in the conference rooms of foreign capitals. It will be forged through our own resilience, our own strategic unity, and our own unwavering commitment to the principle that defined us at Adwa: that Ethiopians are the masters of their own destiny. We must engage with the world wisely, but we must never outsource our future. Let us remember the wisdom of our ancestors: the wolf may offer counsel, but he never dines with the sheep.
The AU’s Failure: The Watchman Who Sleeps in the Fortress
From the heart of Addis Ababa, a silence echoes—a silence so profound it threatens to drown out the very principles upon which it was built. The African Union, an institution that resides within our sovereign territory, a symbol of Pan-African unity and self-determination, stands mute as the drums of war beat ever louder between Ethiopia and Eritrea. This is not merely an oversight; it is a profound and unforgivable failure of leadership. Its inability to proactively mediate between member states, to wield its moral authority to prevent conflict, exposes a crippling paralysis that betrays every African who still believes in the dream of a continent solving its own problems.
There is an adage from the highlands that our Freedom Fighters understand all too well: “A hen owned by the community often dies of hunger.” When something is everyone’s responsibility, it becomes no one’s. The AU has become that communal hen—a body so beholden to the consensus of its members, so fearful of offending individual regimes, that it starves itself of purpose and action. It is a watchman sleeping soundly within the fortress, oblivious to the gathering storm at the gates. Its inaction speaks volumes; it tells President Isaias that his defiance will face no African censure, and it tells Ethiopia that its legitimate strategic concerns are not worthy of a continental forum. This vacuum of leadership does not preserve peace; it actively invites chaos, forcing nations to seek solutions from foreign powers whose interests are not our own.
The AU’s failure is multifaceted and damning. Firstly, it is a failure of principle. The Organisation of African Unity was founded on the sacred principle of inviolable borders, a necessary rule to end the colonialism of the past. The AU’s Constitutive Act, however, also commits it to promote peace, security, and stability. By remaining silent, it is prioritising a stagnant interpretation of sovereignty over its active duty to prevent war. It is allowing the principle of non-interference to become a doctrine of neglect.
Secondly, it is a failure of courage. The headquarters in Addis Ababa places the institution in the eye of the storm, yet it seems intimidated by its host. To mediate effectively requires speaking hard truths to both parties—to Ethiopia about the perils of its brinkmanship, and to Eritrea about the necessity of good-faith engagement. The AU’s silence suggests a fear of diplomatic reprisal, a preference for comfortable irrelevance over difficult engagement. This cowardice dishonours the memory of the founding fathers who dreamed of a strong, independent Africa.
Thirdly, it is a failure of vision. True Pan-Africanism is not about flags and anthems at summits; it is about building the frameworks to manage our inter-dependence. The Red Sea is a vital artery for the entire continent. A conflict there would have devastating ripple effects on trade, security, and migration, impacting nations far beyond the Horn. The AU’s myopia—its inability to see that this bilateral tension is a continental concern—reveals an institution that has lost its strategic compass and its relevance in the 21st century.
This failure is a gift to hawks on both sides and a betrayal to the people. It is why the resolve of Ethiopian Freedom Fighters, including the steadfast FANO, becomes ever more critical. They fight not only against internal tyranny but for a vision of an Ethiopia that is strong, self-reliant, and capable of defending its interests without waiting for permission from a paralysed international community. Their struggle is a stark reminder that when institutions fail, the people must become the guardians of their own destiny.
The AU’s inaction is a betrayal of the Pan-African dream. It creates a vacuum that is eagerly filled by foreign powers—the Americans, Europeans, and Gulf States—who then dictate terms that serve their interests, not Africa’s. By failing to act, the AU is not preserving African sovereignty; it is auctioning it off to the highest bidder.The path forward requires the AU to remember its purpose. It must shed its fear and embrace its role as a mediator. It must invoke its own mechanisms for conflict prevention and speak with a united, African voice. If it cannot, it condemns itself to irrelevance and our continent to perpetual instability. The watchman must awake, or the fortress will surely fall.
Eritrea’s Stance: The Unbending Reed in the Wind of Threats
In the high-stakes drama unfolding between Ethiopia and Eritrea, President Isaias Afwerki’s resolute refusal to negotiate under the cloud of explicit threats is a masterclass in strategic defiance. Far from a sign of weakness, this unwavering stance is a position of immense strength. It serves to brilliantly expose the crude bullying tactics employed by Addis Ababa and, in doing so, underscores a timeless lesson in statecraft: that principled diplomacy, rooted in national dignity, is the only foundation for any lasting and respectful agreement.
An Amharic adage warns of the folly of such coercion: “You cannot force the sun to set faster by throwing stones at it.” The current Ethiopian administration, with its public ultimatums and military posturing, is engaged in precisely this futile endeavour. Each threat, each purging of a moderate official, each grandiose speech about the ‘inevitability’ of sea access is another stone tossed at the sky. President Isaias simply will not be forced to negotiate under such terms. His stance brilliantly reframes the entire conflict for the international community: Ethiopia is no longer the historical giant asserting its rights, but the regional bully attempting to intimidate a smaller neighbour. Asmara’s position paints Addis Ababa’s strategy as reckless and illegitimate, garnering a subtle but significant degree of international sympathy and forcing external mediators to focus on restraining Ethiopian aggression rather than addressing its underlying grievances.
This is not mere stubbornness; it is a calculated application of principled diplomacy. Principled diplomacy does not mean a refusal to ever talk. It means a refusal to be dictated to. It means establishing immutable preconditions for engagement: mutual respect, the absence of threats, and the unequivocal acknowledgement of sovereignty and territorial integrity. By holding this line, Isaias Afwerki forces the entire diplomatic equation to revolve around Eritrea’s terms. He understands that entering talks while Ethiopian troops are massing on the border and officials are threatening war would be tantamount to surrender before a word is even spoken. It would legitimise aggression as a viable tool of statecraft.This Eritrean posture also acts as a mirror, reflecting the internal contradictions within Ethiopia’s approach. The government’s desperate need for a foreign policy victory to distract from its devastating internal wars—particularly against the resistance of the FANO Freedom Fighters in Amhara and other regions—is laid bare. The Freedom Fighters’ struggle exposes a critical truth: a nation that is not at peace with itself can never effectively project strength beyond its borders. The resources spent on brinkmanship with Eritrea are resources not spent on addressing the legitimate demands of the Ethiopian people for justice, self-determination, and accountable governance. Isaias’s defiance highlights that Ethiopia’s real weakness is not the lack of a port, but its lack of internal unity.
For the Ethiopian Freedom Fighters, the Eritrean stance offers a stark lesson in resolve. The FANO fighters, who uphold the true spirit of Ethiopian resistance against oppression, understand that strength is not measured by the volume of one’s threats but by the steadfastness of one’s principles. They fight not for a greater empire, but for a freer and more just Ethiopia, one that would ideally engage with its neighbours from a position of internal strength and moral clarity, not from a position of desperation and bluster.
Ultimately, Eritrea’s refusal to bend is a testament to a nation that has cultivated a fortress mentality through decades of struggle. It is a strategy that forces the world to recognise a simple, powerful truth: sovereignty is not negotiable. For any meaningful dialogue to eventually occur, Ethiopia must first retreat from its threats and embrace a diplomacy of equals. Until then, the sun will continue its slow, deliberate arc across the sky, utterly unmoved by the stones thrown at it.
Internal Purges: The Folly of Silencing the Counsel of Elders
The sudden removal of seasoned officials like Ambassador Bacha Debele and Intelligence Chief Redwan Hussein on the flimsy charge of being ‘pro-Eritrea’ is not a sign of a government strengthening its resolve. It is the desperate act of a regime closing ranks, silencing wisdom, and consolidating power around a single, reckless narrative. This disturbing trend is not a show of strength; it is the ultimate admission of weakness and a profound strategic error that threatens to gut the Ethiopian state of its experienced minds on the eve of its greatest modern crisis.
An ancient Tigrinya adage offers a piercing insight into this folly: “A king who listens only to the echo of his own voice will soon rule over a kingdom of the deaf.” The Prime Minister, in his bid to hear only the chorus of agreement, is systematically deafening himself to the nuanced counsel and dissenting perspectives that are vital for sound statecraft. Officials like Bacha Debele, a military general who understands the brutal realities of war, and Redwan Hussein, an intelligence chief who navigated complex negotiations, possess something the palace sycophants do not: memory and experience. Their removal is not about eradicating treason; it is about eradicating caution. It is about replacing strategic depth with aggressive simplicity, replacing the sober analysis of capabilities with the dangerous euphoria of inevitability.
This purge exposes a critical vulnerability in the government’s posture. A leadership truly confident in its cause and its capabilities would welcome rigorous debate. It would encourage its strategists to play devil’s advocate, to stress-test every plan, and to voice uncomfortable truths about the enemy’s strength or the nation’s readiness. By branding such necessary counsel as disloyalty, the regime reveals a brittle insecurity. It is attempting to manufacture an artificial consensus, creating an echo chamber where the only thing that matters is allegiance to the Prime Minister’s personal ambition, not the nation’s holistic well-being. This is how nations march blindly into disaster.
The charge of being ‘pro-Eritrea’ is particularly cynical. It deliberately conflates two very different things: treasonous allegiance to a foreign state and a rational understanding of an adversary. A general like Bacha, who acknowledges the fighting prowess of the Eritrean Defence Forces, is not praising an enemy; he is stating a fact any competent commander must understand winning. A security chief like Redwan, who understands the complexities of President Isaias Afwerki’s mindset, is not an apologist; he is an asset. Silencing them means going to war without a true understanding of the enemy—a guaranteed path to catastrophic miscalculation.This internal decay is precisely why the struggle of the Ethiopian Freedom Fighters, including the valiant FANO, is so vital. They recognise that a government that purges its own best minds is a government that has lost its way. Their fight is not just against a political opponent; it is for the soul of Ethiopia itself—a nation that should be led by its wisest and most courageous, not its most obsequious. The Freedom Fighters understand that true sovereignty begins at home: it requires a government secure enough to tolerate dissent and wise enough to listen to it. A regime that rules through fear and purges at home can only project aggression abroad.
Ultimately, these purges do not strengthen Ethiopia’s hand against Eritrea; they weaken it immeasurably. They signal to Asmara and the world that Addis Ababa is being driven by ideology, not by strategy, and that its decision-making is becoming more erratic and divorced from reality. President Isaias, a master of long-game strategy, will only see this as further evidence of his adversary’s internal fragility.
By choosing the yes-man over the wise man, the current government is not sharpening its sword; it is blinding itself in one eye on the eve of a duel. It is ensuring that if conflict comes, Ethiopia will not be led by its most capable, but by its most compliant. And as our ancestors well knew, an army of sheep led by a lion will always triumph over an army of lions led by a sheep. In purging its lions, the regime is ensuring our national fight will be led by those who know only how to bleat in agreement.
The FANO Movement: The Unquenchable Fire of Popular Resistance
To dismiss the FANO movement as a mere ‘militia’ is to fundamentally misunderstand the very nature of its struggle and the will of the Ethiopian people it represents. This is not an armed faction; it is the undeniable embodiment of popular resistance, a righteous uprising against the relentless tide of centralised oppression and the systematic erosion of the rights and dignities of our historic regions. They are not soldiers of fortune; they are the sons and daughters of their soil, the guardians of a covenant between the people and their land, fighting for a vision of Ethiopia that is a voluntary union of free peoples, not a prison house of nations held together by force.
An Oromo proverb, resonant across our cultures, speaks to this truth: “You can cut all the flowers, but you cannot stop the spring from coming.” The current regime in Addis Ababa, with its overwhelming military might, can burn villages and arrest thousands. It can label, slander, and attempt to delegitimise. But it cannot extinguish the season of resistance. FANO is not a group that was created; it is a spirit that was awakened. It is the inevitable spring that arrives after the long winter of marginalisation, the natural response to a government that has chosen the boot heel of authoritarian control over the respectful partnership of federalism. Their ranks are filled not by recruits seeking pay, but by farmers, students, and elders who have seen their autonomy stripped away, their voices silenced, and their very identity under threat.
This movement is the living, breathing rejection of a failed and toxic centralism. The promise of Ethiopia’s federal structure was designed precisely to honour our nation’s magnificent diversity, to ensure that the Amhara, the Oromo, the Tigrayan, the Somali, and every other nation and nationality could have a authentic voice in their own destiny. The current government has betrayed that promise, replacing it with a suffocating, top-down dictatorship that seeks to micromanage every aspect of life from the centre. FANO fights against this betrayal. They are the defenders of the constitutional spirit that has been murdered in plain sight, the last line of defence against the complete evisceration of regional rights.
To call them a ‘militia’ is a deliberate tactic of psychological warfare employed by Addis Ababa to minimise their legitimacy. A militia is an irregular force; a Freedom Fighter is a moral agent. A militia fights for a faction; a Freedom Fighter fights for a principle. The FANO movement’s deep roots in the community, its popular support, and its stated goal—not of secession, but of a truly free and equitable Ethiopia—elevates its struggle to a higher plane. They are not breaking the country; they are trying to save it from a regime that is tearing it apart with its own intolerance.
Their struggle is also intrinsically linked to the broader national crisis. A government that is waging a brutal war against its own people in Amhara and Oromia cannot possibly claim the moral authority to lead a national crusade for sea access. It reveals a fatal contradiction: how can one speak of asserting sovereignty against external forces while simultaneously crushing sovereignty at home? The bravery of the FANO Freedom Fighters exposes this hypocrisy. They fight the internal battle for freedom without which any external victory would be meaningless.
The path forward for Ethiopia does not lie in the annihilation of FANO. It lies in addressing the profound grievances that fuel its existence. It requires a return to genuine federalism, a respect for regional autonomy, and an unconditional national dialogue. The unquenchable fire of popular resistance will never be put out by force; it can only be quelled by justice. For as long as oppression remains, the spring will always, always come again.
The Tigray Question: The Silence That Speaks Volumes
Amidst the escalating drumbeats of war over sea access, a profound and telling silence emanates from the leadership of Tigray. This is not a silence of indifference, nor is it a silence of weakness. It is a heavy, calculated, and deeply political silence that screams a truth the central government in Addis Ababa desperately wishes to ignore: Ethiopia is not a united nation marching in lockstep, but a fractured empire held together by fraying threads. The Tigrayan leadership’s refusal to champion the Prime Minister’s nationalist crusade underscores the fundamental reality that the deep fractures within Ethiopia must be healed through genuine inclusive dialogue and justice, not through the diversionary fervour of external expansion.
A timeless adage from the region warns of such folly: “A man who tries to build the roof of his house while the walls are crumbling will find himself shelterless in the storm.” The current administration is obsessed with building a grand, nationalist roof—the project of sea access—while the very walls of the Ethiopian state, its foundational covenants between diverse peoples, are collapsing into dust. The silence from Mekelle is a stark reminder that the people of Tigray have just emerged from a horrific war that saw them brutalised by the very state now asking for their patriotic solidarity. They remember the closures of borders, the sieges, and the propaganda that labelled them enemies of Ethiopia. To now be expected to rally behind a flag that was recently used to justify their collective punishment is not just unrealistic; it is a profound insult to their suffering and their intelligence.
This silence is a powerful political statement. It exposes the hypocrisy of a government that speaks of national unity while waging a brutal war on its own people in Amhara and Oromia, and having done so recently in Tigray. How can a regime demand solidarity for an external project of sovereignty when it has so viciously violated the internal sovereignty of its own constituent nations? The Tigrayan leadership’s stance highlights a simple, powerful equation: meaningful solidarity is earned, not commanded. It is built on a foundation of mutual respect, justice, and a guaranteed share in power. It cannot be extracted at the point of a gun or through empty slogans.The struggle of the Ethiopian Freedom Fighters, including the FANO forces, is inextricably linked to this Tigrayan silence. Both represent a fundamental rejection of the centralised, oppressive model of governance emanating from Addis Ababa. The Freedom Fighters in Amhara may fight for different specific grievances than the people of Tigray, but they are united in their resistance against a government that denies them authentic self-rule and dignity. The government’s inability to secure Tigray’s support for its most cherished foreign policy goal is a testament to its catastrophic failure to build a cohesive national project. It reveals a nation so deeply divided that it cannot even present a united front on an issue of purported national survival.
Therefore, the path to the sea does not run through Asmara or Djibouti; it first runs through Mekelle, through Dessie, through Nekemte, and through every region that feels alienated and oppressed. The pursuit of sea access without first achieving internal reconciliation is a dangerous fantasy. It is an attempt to use an external enemy to paper over internal fissures—a strategy as old as it is ultimately doomed to fail.
True strength, the kind that would make Ethiopia unassailable, lies in its ability to create a voluntary and joyful union. Before the government can demand that Tigray, Amhara, or Oromia stand with it against Eritrea, it must first prove it stands for them. It must engage in an unconditional national dialogue to address the legitimate demands of all its peoples.The silence from Tigray is not a problem to be ignored. It is the most important message the government will receive. To ignore it is to continue building a roof on a house that is already falling down. A nation that is not at peace with itself can never truly be sovereign beyond its borders. The silence will continue until it is met not with threats, but with the respectful offer of a seat at a table where the future of all Ethiopia is truly negotiated.
The Economic Leverage: The Golden Chains of Foreign Aid
In the intricate dance of international diplomacy, the promise of economic reward is the most potent weapon in the arsenal of foreign powers. The tantalising offer of reinstatement into the US African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and the flow of financial aid from Western nations are not acts of charity; they are carefully calibrated tools of policy influence, designed to purchase compliance and undermine sovereignty. For a nation as proud and historically independent as Ethiopia, to trade our long-term right to self-determination for short-term economic relief would be a catastrophic betrayal of our ancestors and a mortgage on our children’s future. We must see these offers for what they are: golden chains that glitter invitingly but bind us all the same.
An Amharic adage speaks to this very danger: “The beggar’s plate is always full, but his freedom is always empty.” The United States and its European allies are well aware of the economic devastation wrought by recent conflicts and the immense pressure the Ethiopian government is under. Their offer to reopen the taps of finance and trade through AGOA is presented as a lifeline, but it comes with invisible strings attached. These strings are meant to pull our nation’s policies into alignment with their strategic interests in the Horn of Africa—interests that prioritise their regional security, their counterterrorism goals, and their containment of rival powers like China and Russia over Ethiopia’s own national imperatives.
The leverage is brutally simple. AGOA access means duty-free exports to a massive market, supporting millions of jobs. Its denial means economic hardship, factory closures, and increased unemployment. This gives foreign capitals immense power to dictate terms: Scale back your stance on the sea. Do not escalate with Eritrea. Curtail your relationships with certain nations. Modify your internal governance. Each concession might be presented as a reasonable diplomatic compromise, but together, they amount to a gradual, insidious erosion of our ability to make independent decisions based on our own national interest.
This economic pressure is a direct assault on the principles for which our Ethiopian Freedom Fighters, including the courageous FANO, are sacrificing everything. Their struggle in the mountains of Amhara and beyond is fundamentally a fight for sovereignty—the right of the Ethiopian people to determine their own destiny without external interference or internal tyranny. To see the government in Addis Ababa potentially barter away that hard-won sovereignty for a temporary economic fix would validate the very oppression they are resisting. The Freedom Fighters understand that a nation that cannot feed its own people without following a foreign recipe is not a sovereign nation at all.
Furthermore, this dynamic creates a perverse incentive for the government. Needing external financial support to survive, it may be tempted to prioritise the demands of foreign donors over the legitimate grievances of its own people. The struggle for justice in Amhara and Oromia, the demand for inclusive dialogue, and the need for authentic federalism could all be sidelined as inconvenient obstacles to securing the Western aid needed to keep the economy afloat. This creates a vicious cycle where internal oppression continues to secure external funding, fuelling further resistance and instability.
True national strength—the kind that cannot be bought or bullied—comes from economic self-reliance and internal political legitimacy. It is built by forging a genuine social contract between the government and all its people, not by signing conditional contracts with foreign powers. The path to dignity does not lie in begging for a place at another man’s table; it lies in building our own table so strong and so abundant that others ask to join it.
We must not be seduced by the glitter of short-term gain. We must have the courage and the foresight to endure economic hardship if it means preserving our right to choose our own path. The promise of AGOA is a test of our national character. Will we remain the proud descendants of Adwa, or will we become beggars with full plates and empty souls? The Freedom Fighters have already given their answer with their blood. It is time for the nation to heed their call.
The Drone Warfare Revolution: The Hawk That Fights the Eagle
In the brutal calculus of modern conflict, the balance of power is no longer dictated by population size or the number of tanks in a parade. A revolution is underway, one that echoes from the battlefields of Ukraine to the deserts of Sudan, demonstrating that a determined nation can indeed level the playing field against a larger aggressor. The development and devastating effectiveness of cost-effective drones, like the Sudanese Safaroog, offer a crucial lesson for Ethiopia: we must urgently invest in our own asymmetrical capabilities. But this pursuit must be guided by a sacred principle—these tools are for the defence of our sovereignty, not for the aggression the regime in Addis Ababa so recklessly promotes. They are the shield for the vulnerable, not a sword for the ambitious.
There is an adage from the highlands that speaks to this new form of warfare: “The hawk cannot be killed by the eagle’s boast, but by the hunter’s well-aimed stone.” For too long, Ethiopia has been mesmerised by the ‘eagle’s boast’—the grandiose display of conventional military might, the parades of heavy armour, the rhetoric of inevitability. Yet, as the Safaroog drone proves in Sudan, it is the precise, well-aimed ‘stone’ that now wins battles. This low-cost, locally-produced loitering munition, with its anti-jamming capabilities and precision strikes, has allowed the Sudanese military to halt the advance of the well-funded Rapid Support Forces. It is a testament to how ingenuity and determination can counter brute force and financial backing. This is not a technology reserved for global superpowers; it is a tool of strategic empowerment for nations that refuse to be bullied.
For Ethiopia, this presents a critical strategic imperative. We cannot ignore the stark reality that Eritrea, fortified by its alliance with Sudan and others, and the current Addis Ababa regime, with its purchases of Turkish and Iranian drones, are both investing in this technology. To be without a capable drone programme is to cede the skies to our adversaries. However, the purpose of this investment must be fundamentally different from the expansionist dreams of the central government. We must develop this capability not to threaten our neighbours or to annex territory, but to ensure that our homeland remains inviolable.
This is where the righteous cause of the Ethiopian Freedom Fighters, including the gallant FANO, converges with this technological necessity. For them, drones are not instruments of foreign policy adventurism; they are a potential equaliser. A small, mobile unit of Freedom Fighters, armed with cost-effective reconnaissance and kamikaze drones, can monitor troop movements, disrupt supply lines, and defend their villages from aerial bombardment without needing a billion-pound air force. This technology empowers the defender, the guerrilla, the patriot who knows the terrain and is fighting for a just cause. It is the ultimate embodiment of the well-aimed stone against the eagle’s boast.
Therefore, our call is not for an arms race, but for a defensive awakening. Ethiopia’s intellectual capital, its engineers, and its innovators must be mobilised not for conquest, but for preservation. We must develop our own Safaroog—a drone capable of patrolling our borders, safeguarding our people, and delivering a decisive response to any who would dare violate our airspace or our territorial integrity. This programme should be a source of national pride, a project of self-reliance that serves all Ethiopians, not the narrow interests of a single ruling party.
The drone revolution teaches us that power is changing hands. It is moving from the centres of monolithic authority to the determined and the innovative. Let Ethiopia embrace this not as a tool to wield the sword of aggression, but to forge an impregnable shield of defence. Let our well-aimed stone be ready, not to attack the eagle, but to ensure the hawk—the symbol of our watchful freedom—can never again be prey. Our strength must be measured not by our capacity to invade, but by our invincibility in defence.
The Sudan Alliance: Forging a Chain to Break a Stranglehold
In the high-stakes chess game of the Horn of Africa, President Isaias Afwerki’s move to deepen military cooperation with Sudan’s besieged government is not merely a tactical shift; it is a strategic masterstroke of profound significance. This burgeoning alliance is a deft and powerful manoeuvre that simultaneously fortifies Eritrea’s defences, secures its flanks, and creates a crucial counterweight to the immense pressure being applied by Addis Ababa. It is the act of a seasoned strategist building a coalition of necessity, transforming Eritrea’s perceived isolation into a position of strengthened, interconnected resilience.
An ancient Tigrinya adage captures the essence of this strategy: “When the floodwaters rise, the wise man does not build a higher wall alone; he forges a chain with his neighbours to anchor them all to the mountain.” Facing the rising flood of Ethiopian belligerence—the threats, the military posturing, the demands on sovereign territory—Eritrea has chosen not to merely heighten its own defences. Instead, it is forging a chain of mutual interest with General al-Burhan’s Sudan, anchoring both nations to the solid ground of shared strategic necessity. This chain directly counterbalances Ethiopian pressure, making the cost of any aggression prohibitively high.
The benefits of this alliance for Asmara are multifaceted and devastatingly effective:
Strategic Depth and Diversification: For decades, Eritrea’s security was heavily reliant on its own formidable defence forces and its mountainous terrain. The Sudan alliance provides vital strategic depth. It offers potential basing options, shared intelligence across a new front, and a partner that controls a significant stretch of the Red Sea coast, complicating any potential Ethiopian strategic calculations.
Countering the Ethiopian Narrative: Ethiopia’s campaign has relied on portraying Eritrea as an intransigent, isolated outlier refusing a reasonable dialogue. This alliance shatters that narrative. It demonstrates that Eritrea is capable of building strong bilateral relationships based on mutual respect for sovereignty, a principle Addis Ababa is seen to be threatening. It internationalises the dispute, showing that the stability of the entire region, not just a bilateral issue, is at stake.
Access to Capabilities and Technology: As evidenced by the effective use of Sudanese-manufactured Safaroog drones, Sudan possesses a domestic military-industrial capability. This alliance opens the door for technology sharing, joint development, and access to these cost-effective force multipliers, which could critically enhance Eritrea’s ability to deter aggression and defend its airspace without the exorbitant cost of importing major weapons systems.
Creating a Two-Front Dilemma for Addis Ababa: This is the masterstroke. Ethiopia is already critically overstretched, fighting a devastating war against its own people in Amhara and Oromia, with the brave FANO Freedom Fighters and others pinning down vast military resources. A hostile front with Sudan to the west and west, alongside an active conflict with Eritrea to the north, would create an impossible two-front military scenario for the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF). This alliance makes it clear that any attack on Eritrea would have immediate and dire regional consequences, effectively checking Ethiopian adventurism.
This strategic reality is not lost on Ethiopia’s Freedom Fighters. They witness the central government in Addis Ababa squandering national strength on external brinkmanship while the nation fractures internally. The regime’s inability to secure its own hinterland, its failure to build a cohesive national project that commands loyalty, is its greatest weakness. Eritrea’s alliance with Sudan exploits this very weakness, highlighting the stark contrast between a regime bogged down in multiple internal conflicts and a nation like Eritrea, however austere, that can project strategic unity and form smart alliances.
The Sudan alliance is a lesson in realpolitik. It proves that in the Horn of Africa, security is a collective endeavour. For Eritrea, it is a powerful anchor against the flood. For the Ethiopian regime, it is a formidable new chain restraining its ambitions. And for the Ethiopian Freedom Fighters, it is a testament to the fact that the government’s external failures are born directly from its internal oppressions. True security begins at home, not with the annexation of a neighbour’s shore.The Downplayed Threats: The Folly of Ignoring the Gathering Storm
The recent remarks by Somalia’s President, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, seeking to dismiss the palpable risk of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea as mere “rumours” are not merely misguided; they represent a dangerous and irresponsible naivety that borders on diplomatic malpractice. To downplay the escalating military buildups, the toxic rhetoric, and the explicit threats emanating from Addis Ababa is to ignore the unmistakable scent of ozone that precedes a lightning strike. This crisis demands urgent, sober attention and robust regional mediation, not a cowardly retreat into comfortable denial that only emboldens aggressors and betrays the millions whose lives would be shattered by a conflict.
An Oromo proverb offers a piercing insight into this folly: “He who says ‘it will not rain’ while standing under a gathering cloud is the first to be soaked.” President Mohamud is effectively telling the entire region to ignore the darkening sky above us. The clouds are not metaphorical. They are the well-documented movements of troops and machinery along a tense border. They are the formation of new military command posts dedicated to planning for conflict with Eritrea. They are the Prime Minister’s own words, declaring sea access “inevitable” and threatening any Ethiopian who opposes this quest as being “dead.” These are not rumours; they are the first heavy drops of a coming deluge. To dismiss them is to ensure the entire Horn of Africa will be soaked in blood.
This downplaying is irresponsible for several critical reasons. Firstly, it undermines deterrence. A strong, unified regional voice expressing grave concern and promising diplomatic consequences can act as a crucial brake on reckless ambitions. By dismissing the threat, Somalia’s president effectively gives a green light to adventurism in Addis Ababa, suggesting that their actions will not face serious regional condemnation. It tells Prime Minister Abiy that his brinkmanship is working and that the neighbourhood is too divided or too timid to stop him.
Secondly, it betrays the cause of peace. True statesmanship at this moment would involve using Somalia’s voice to urgently call for de-escalation and for the African Union to finally awaken from its slumber to mediate. Instead, this attempt to minimise the crisis is a gift to the hawks in both capitals. It allows Eritrea’s President Isaias to further frame Ethiopia as an unprovoked aggressor, and it allows Ethiopia’s ruling party to continue its dangerous game without regional pressure. It leaves the field open for non-African powers to dictate the terms of any mediation, further eroding our continental sovereignty.For the Ethiopian Freedom Fighters, including the steadfast FANO, this diplomatic cowardice is both a warning and a confirmation. It is a warning that they cannot rely on regional leaders to act in the interest of ordinary people who will bear the brunt of a war orchestrated by elites. It confirms their belief that their struggle for justice and self-determination within Ethiopia is intrinsically linked to the regime’s reckless foreign policy. A government that is waging a brutal war on its own people in Amhara and Oromia cannot be trusted with the monumental decision to start an international war. The Freedom Fighters understand that the same hunger for power that drives internal oppression is what fuels external aggression.
The path to security for the Horn does not lie in closing our eyes to danger. It lies in staring directly at it and marshalling every diplomatic tool to prevent it. Somalia, instead of downplaying the threat, should be at the forefront of a coalition of regional states demanding an immediate cessation of threats, a pullback of forces, and unconditional dialogue under the auspices of the African Union.
To call the drums of war a “rumour” is to insult the intelligence of every farmer who hears the tanks rolling towards the border. It is to betray the very principle of collective security. We must not be the generation that stood by, muttering empty platitudes, as the storm gathered. For when the lightning finally strikes, it will be too late to complain about the rain. The time for action is now, before the first shot is fired and the last chance for peace is lost.
The Weaponisation of Nationalism: When Patriotism Becomes a Prison
In a move that exposes the brittle foundation of its authority, the regime in Addis Ababa has escalated its rhetoric from aggressive posturing to outright intellectual tyranny. The Prime Minister’s threat that any Ethiopian who opposes his government’s pursuit of sea access is ‘dead’ is not a statement of national unity; it is a toxic and desperate weaponisation of nationalism. It is a deliberate, dangerous attempt to stifle all dissent, silence all debate, and equate thoughtful criticism with treasonous betrayal. This tactic reveals a government that fears its own people more than any foreign adversary and seeks to hide behind a flimsy banner of manufactured patriotism to mask the catastrophic failures of its rule.
A profound Amharic adage speaks directly to this manipulation: “The tree that does not bend with the wind will be the first to break in the storm.” A healthy nation, like a strong forest, is resilient because it allows for movement and debate. It understands that differing perspectives strengthen the whole, allowing it to adapt and withstand pressure. The Prime Minister’s decree is the opposite: it is an attempt to petrify the national discourse into a rigid, brittle monolith that will shatter under the first real test. By declaring that every Ethiopian must think exactly as he does on this singular issue, he is not building a united nation; he is creating a nation of sycophants and yes-men, ensuring that when the storm of his own making arrives, there will be no flexibility, no creativity, and no wisdom left to survive it.
This is the ultimate corruption of patriotism. True love for one’s country is not measured by blind obedience to a single ruler’s edict. True patriotism is the courage to question, to critique, and to demand better for one’s nation. It is the farmer who questions the economic wisdom of another war. It is the academic who warns of the diplomatic isolation that reckless aggression will bring. It is the elder who remembers the cost of past conflicts and pleads for wisdom. To declare these voices ‘dead’ is to declare the very soul of Ethiopia dead. It is to claim that patriotism is the sole property of the ruling party, a commodity to be doled out to supporters and denied to critics.
This oppressive climate is precisely why the resistance of the Ethiopian Freedom Fighters, including the heroic FANO, is not an act of division but the ultimate act of patriotism. They understand that a nation that silences its own people is already lost. Their fight is to liberate Ethiopia from this very tyranny—to reclaim the right to debate, to differ, and to determine a collective future without the threat of state-sanctioned violence. They fight for an Ethiopia where love of country is expressed through the vibrant, chaotic, and robust exchange of ideas, not through forced chants at the point of a gun.The regime’s strategy is transparently cynical. It seeks to use the legitimate, historical yearning for sea access as a tool to crush all internal opposition. By framing the issue as a sacred national crusade, it hopes to tar all its domestic enemies—whether the FANO Freedom Fighters in Amhara, the militants in Oromia, or simply critical intellectuals—as enemies of the state who stand against Ethiopia’s destiny. This is a gambit to justify further internal repression under the guise of national unity.
But the people are not fooled. You cannot feed a child with a flag. You cannot shelter a family with a slogan. True national strength is built on justice, economic prosperity, and inclusive governance, not on the hysterical demands of a regime whose only remaining tool is the threat of violence. The path to the sea, if it is to be lasting and honourable, must be paved with the consent of a free people, not built upon the graves of silenced critics. A nation that must threaten its own children to secure their loyalty has already lost its way.
The Illusion of Inevitability: Reclaiming Choice from the Rhetoric of War
From the halls of power in Addis Ababa, a single, dangerous word is being used to manufacture consent for a catastrophic conflict: “inevitable.” The regime proclaims that Ethiopia’s access to the sea is historically ordained and its achievement through forceful means is an unavoidable fate. This is a seductive but poisonous illusion designed to strip the Ethiopian and Eritrean people of their agency and their future. While the right to sovereign sea access is indeed a national imperative, the method of achieving it is never preordained. War is not an act of nature; it is a conscious, deliberate choice made by fallible men. And for the peoples of Ethiopia and Eritrea, still bearing the scars of past generations, it remains the worst possible choice—a path that leads only to mutual ruin and the betrayal of our shared humanity.
An ancient Tigrinya adage offers a profound warning against such fatalism: “The river that is forced from its bed becomes a flood that drowns the farmer who dug the channel.” The current regime, in its arrogant attempt to force the river of history into a new course through threats and militarism, risks unleashing a deluge that will consume not only its intended target but the entire region, including Ethiopia itself. The notion of “inevitable” war is a rhetorical tool to silence debate and absolve the leadership of responsibility for the horrific consequences that will follow. It is the language of those who have run out of ideas and must resort to the blunt, destructive instrument of violence to maintain their power and legacy.
True statesmanship lies not in surrendering to a false inevitability, but in courageously charting an alternative course. The history of our region is littered with the bones of those who believed war was the only answer. The previous conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea (1998-2000) solved nothing; it only entrenched bitterness, cost tens of thousands of lives, and hardened borders that should have been softened by commerce and cooperation. To choose this path again is not strength; it is a tragic admission of diplomatic and intellectual bankruptcy. It is to value a patch of land or a stretch of coastline more than the lives of an entire generation of Ethiopians and Eritreans, who deserve peace and prosperity.This is where the struggle of the Ethiopian Freedom Fighters, including the valiant FANO, intersects with the highest national interest. Their fight against the central government is not a peripheral conflict; it is a direct challenge to the very logic of destructive nationalism that fuels this drive to war. They understand that a regime that is waging a brutal war on its own people in Amhara and Oromia cannot be trusted to wage a just war beyond its borders. They fight for an Ethiopia where national power is derived from internal justice and popular consent, not from the ability to inflict suffering on its neighbours. Their resistance is a living testament to the fact that there are always choices: the choice to negotiate, the choice to build economic strength, the choice to foster regional alliances, and the choice to address the internal injustices that make foreign aggression so tempting to a failing regime.
The path to the sea is not a single, narrow road paved with bullets. It is a wide horizon that can be reached through many routes: through patient diplomacy that builds trust, through economic integration that makes neighbours indispensable to one another, and through the unwavering pursuit of a just and unified Ethiopia that commands respect rather than fear.
To succumb to the illusion of inevitable war is to forget the lessons of our own history and to ignore the voices of our own people. The future of the Horn of Africa will be shaped by the choices we make today. Let us choose wisdom over hubris, construction over destruction, and life over death. The sea will still be there tomorrow. But the children we sacrifice today for a dictator’s legacy will be gone forever.
The Role of the Diaspora: A Voice from Afar for a Homeland in Peril
To the millions of Ethiopians scattered across the globe, your role has never been more critical. You are not distant spectators to the tragedy unfolding in our homeland; you are its witnesses, its conscience, and potentially, its saviours. The regime in Addis Ababa seeks your support—your remittances, your lobbying, your vocal cheerleading—for its reckless and destructive path. But true patriotism demands more than blind allegiance. It demands wisdom, courage, and a fierce love for Ethiopia that transcends the narrow interests of any single ruling party. Ethiopians abroad must use their privileged platforms not to amplify the drums of war, but to advocate for peaceful, smart, and inclusive strategies that preserve the nation from the cataclysm it is hurtling towards.
An Oromo proverb offers a timeless guide for this responsibility: “He who shouts from the mountain top does not know what is happening in the valley.” The diaspora has a view from the mountain. You have access to information, to foreign governments, to media outlets, and to financial resources that those trapped in the valley of repression and propaganda do not. You can see the larger geopolitical picture, the dire economic consequences of conflict, and the universal principles of human rights that the regime is violating daily. To use that vantage point merely to echo the regime’s jingoistic slogans is a betrayal of your unique position. Instead, you must shout a different message back into the valley: a message of caution, of strategy, and of peace.Your role must be to advocate for the Ethiopia that should be, not to defend the Ethiopia that is under its current rulers. This means:
Rejecting Nationalist Cheerleading: The government’s narrative is designed to trigger an emotional, uncritical response. It frames the quest for the sea as a sacred national crusade where any criticism is treason. The diaspora must resist this manipulation. Do not fund war efforts disguised as “development” or “national unity.” Do not lobby foreign governments to turn a blind eye to the regime’s aggression because of supposed strategic interests. Use your voices to provide context, to explain that the demand for sea access is legitimate, but the method of brinkmanship is suicidal.
Amplifying the Voices of the Voiceless: While the regime silences dissent at home, your platforms are vital. Amplify the plight of those suffering under its rule—the people of Amhara under a state of emergency, the Oromo still seeking justice, the Tigrayans recovering from war. Centre the narratives of the Ethiopian Freedom Fighters, like the heroic FANO, not to glorify war, but to explain their cause: that they are fighting for a decentralised, democratic Ethiopia where all nations and nationalities have a voice. Make it clear that a government waging war on its own people cannot lead a successful national project abroad.
Lobbying for Smart Diplomacy, Not Blanket Support: Use your influence in Western capitals not to beg for support for the regime, but to advocate for principled diplomacy. Lobby for:
Strong diplomatic engagement that pressures both sides to de-escalate and commit to unconditional dialogue.
Support for an African Union-led mediation that is proactive, not passive.
Conditional aid that is tied to verifiable improvements in human rights and a commitment to peaceful conflict resolution within Ethiopia and with its neighbours.
Sanctions against officials and institutions responsible for human rights abuses and warmongering.
Supporting Civil Society, Not the War Machine: Direct your financial resources away from government-linked initiatives and towards independent Ethiopian civil society organisations, humanitarian aid groups, and media outlets that are striving for peace and accountability. Support the building blocks of a future, functional democracy.
The diaspora must be the bridge, not the cheerleader. You bridge the gap between the world and Ethiopia, translating the regime’s dangerous actions into terms the international community can understand and act upon. You bridge the gap between the people and the power, channelling the true desires of Ethiopians for peace and justice to a global audience.
The future of Ethiopia is being decided now. The regime offers a future of perpetual war, internal repression, and regional isolation. The Freedom Fighters offer a future of internal liberation, but their path is also fraught with violence. The diaspora’s sacred duty is to use its voice to champion a third way: a strategic, peaceful, and inclusive path that secures Ethiopia’s rights without sacrificing its soul. Do not shout mindlessly from the mountain. Speak wisely, for the sake of those in the valley below.
The Media’s Role: The Lamp in the Darkness of Propaganda
In the fog of war, the first casualty is often the truth. As the regimes in Addis Ababa and Asmara wage a fierce battle of narratives to complement their military posturing, the role of independent media channels has never been more vital. These platforms, often operating at great personal risk, are the fragile lamps cutting through the oppressive darkness of state-sponsored propaganda. They are the essential lifeline for the diaspora yearning for uncensored news and for the world trying to decipher fact from fiction. In this critical hour, supporting media that seeks truth over allegiance is not a passive act; it is a revolutionary duty fundamental to the preservation of our nation’s conscience and the pursuit of a just peace.
An Amharic adage warns of the danger of a single story: “Until the lion learns to write, every tale will glorify the hunter.” The official media in Ethiopia and Eritrea are instruments of the hunter. They exist to glorify the state, to sanitise its failures, and to demonise its enemies—whether they be neighbouring nations or internal groups like the FANO Freedom Fighters. They peddle a manufactured reality where complex geopolitical struggles are reduced to simplistic tales of patriotic triumph and foreign villainy. To rely on these sources is to see the world through a distorted lens, one designed to provoke emotion and suppress critical thought.This is why channels dedicated to factual, on-the-ground reporting are so indispensable. Their role is multifaceted and crucial:
Bearing Unwitnessed Testimony: While state media parades military hardware, independent journalists and analysts work to document the human cost of mobilisation, the economic impact of sanctions, and the silent suffering of civilians in conflict zones. They give a voice to the voiceless, ensuring that the world sees the full consequences of the regime’s adventurism.
Challenging the Official Narrative: They serve as a crucial corrective force. When the government declares the pursuit of sea access “inevitable,” independent media asks “at what cost?” When the regime labels all dissent as treason, these platforms provide a space to explore the legitimate grievances and strategic concerns of those who oppose its methods. They reintroduce nuance into a debate that the state seeks to make simplistic and binary.
Informing the Diaspora’s Resistance: The global Ethiopian diaspora is not a monolith; it is a vast network of influence. Its power can only be harnessed effectively if it is informed by truth, not propaganda. Independent media provides the diaspora with the verified information needed to lobby foreign governments accurately, to counter the regime’s disinformation campaigns abroad, and to direct humanitarian and financial support to the right causes—not into the coffers of a warmongering state.
Archiving History in Real-Time: In a conflict where both sides will seek to control the historical record, independent analysis creates a contemporaneous account of events. This is vital for future accountability and for ensuring that the sacrifices of the Freedom Fighters and the suffering of the people are not erased by the victor’s narrative.
Supporting this independent media is an act of national preservation. It means critically engaging with content, sharing verified information, and providing financial or technical support to platforms that prioritise evidence over emotion. It means rejecting the lazy comfort of echo chambers that simply confirm our biases.
For the Ethiopian Freedom Fighters, a fair media is a strategic ally. It is the means by which their struggle for justice and autonomy—so often mischaracterised by the state as mere banditry or terrorism—can be understood in its true context. It is how they can communicate their vision for a truly democratic Ethiopia to the world.
In the end, the battle for Ethiopia’s future is also a battle over information. Will we be a people informed by truth, or manipulated by lies? Will we support the lamp-bearers, or will we surrender to the darkness? The choice we make will determine not only the outcome of this crisis but the very soul of our nation for generations to come. A country that does not value truth can never be free.
The Human Cost: The Blood Price of a Leader’s Ambition
Amidst the grandiose speeches about national destiny, the maps redrawn in air-conditioned offices, and the cynical calculus of geopolitical brinkmanship, we must never lose sight of the only truth that ultimately matters: the immense, incalculable human suffering that another war would unleash. Our people, from the highlands of Tigray to the fields of Amhara, from the streets of Addis Ababa to the ports of Massawa, have endured enough. They have been burned by the fire of conflict too many times. The true measure of our leaders must not be their ability to make promises, but their proven capacity to provide and protect that most sacred of necessities: peace.
An ancient and sombre adage from the Horn of Africa speaks to this profound truth: “The wise chief counts the cost of the feast before he slaughters the bull.” The current rulers in Addis Ababa and Asmara are recklessly preparing for a feast of nationalistic glory, eager to slaughter the bull of war without a single thought for the cost. They are not counting the children who will be orphaned, the mothers who will weep over graves, the ancient towns that will be reduced to rubble, and the generations that will be cursed with hatred and trauma. They are counting drones, battalions, and kilometres of coastline, blind to the only arithmetic that has ever mattered—the value of a single human life.
The human cost of a renewed Ethiopia-Eritrea war would be a catastrophe of generational proportions:
A Harvest of Death: This would not be a swift, clinical war. It would be a brutal conflict of attrition along fortified mountain frontiers, consuming tens of thousands of young lives from both nations—sons and daughters sent to die for a quarrel they did not create. The blood of Ethiopians and Eritreans, peoples of intertwined heritage, would once again soak into the same soil.
Societal Collapse: The economic progress painstakingly built over decades would be obliterated overnight. Inflation would skyrocket, supply chains would shatter, and famine would stalk the land as resources are funneled into the insatiable appetite of the war machine. The very fabric of our societies would unravel.
The Betrayal of a Generation: A nation’s greatest treasure is its youth. Yet, our leaders are prepared to sacrifice this generation on the altar of their own ambition. Instead of classrooms, they will know trenches. Instead of textbooks, they will know weapons. Their future will be stolen from them, exchanged for the hollow vanity of a politician’s legacy.
This is the grim reality that the regime’s rhetoric of “inevitability” seeks to obscure. They ask for blind faith while planning for widespread death. This is also why the struggle of the Ethiopian Freedom Fighters, including the courageous FANO, is rooted in a deeper patriotism. They understand that a leader who cannot provide peace, justice, and prosperity at home is fundamentally unqualified to lead the nation into a conflict abroad. Their resistance is a fight to hold power accountable, to demand that the sanctity of Ethiopian life be the paramount principle of governance.
The people of Eritrea, no strangers to sacrifice and isolation, would likewise bear the horrific brunt of a conflict, their resilience tested once more by a government that has always prioritized national security over individual well-being.We must therefore judge our leaders with a ruthless clarity. Their legacy will not be written in the territory they claim, but in the lives they preserve or destroy. A leader who chooses war when pathways for peace—however difficult—still exist, is not a hero. He is a failure. He has failed the first and most basic test of leadership: the duty to protect.
The pursuit of sea access is a national goal, but it must never become a national death sentence. The true strength of a nation is not measured by the land it controls, but by the well-being of its people. Let us never forget the cost. Let us demand leaders who count it, who cherish peace, and who understand that the greatest victory is not a military one, but the preservation of a people, whole and free.
A Call for Pan-Horn Unity: Weaving a Single Cloth from Many Threads
The toxic allure of nationalism, peddled by desperate regimes in Addis Ababa and Asmara, is a poison that has crippled the Horn of Africa for generations. It is a narrow, selfish vision that pits brother against brother, squandering our collective strength in endless cycles of suspicion and conflict. The real solution to our region’s woes—from the question of sea access to the scourge of internal repression—does not lie in further fragmentation or military conquest. It lies in the courageous pursuit of deeper economic and political integration across the Horn of Africa. This is not a dream of naive idealism; it is a strategic imperative for survival and prosperity. We must strive for a unity built on the unshakeable foundations of mutual respect and shared benefit, not the failed, bloody logic of coercion.
An Oromo proverb holds the key to this vision: “A single thread is easily broken; many threads woven together make a cloth that can bear the weight of a mountain.” For too long, the nations of the Horn have been solitary, vulnerable threads. Ethiopia, landlocked and straining against its borders; Eritrea, isolated and fortified into a garrison state; Somalia, struggling for stability; Sudan, fractured by internal strife. Each alone is weak, exposed to the manipulations of foreign powers and the ambitions of predatory elites. But woven together—economically integrated, politically cooperative, and bound by mutual interest—we become a fabric of immense strength, capable of bearing the weight of our challenges and forging our own destiny.
This vision of Pan-Horn unity is the ultimate rebuke to the petty brinkmanship of the current rulers. It reimagines the Red Sea not as a prize to be won by one nation through war, but as a shared economic corridor for all. Imagine a Horn of Africa where:
Ports are shared assets, not strategic weapons. Assab and Djibouti could serve the hinterlands of Ethiopia, South Sudan, and beyond under frameworks of equitable revenue sharing and joint management, making the sea a connector, not a divider.
Goods, people, and capital flow freely across borders, unleashing the vast economic potential of our region’s market, resources, and entrepreneurial spirit. Customs unions and common infrastructure would make us collectively self-reliant.
Security is a collective responsibility, with a regional force focused on combating true threats like extremist groups and trafficking networks, rather than nations wasting their youth and treasure pointing guns at each other across barren borderlands.
This is not a surrender of sovereignty; it is its ultimate expression. True sovereignty is not the ability to close one’s borders and starve in isolation. It is the power to engage with the world from a position of collective strength, to negotiate with China, Europe, and the Gulf States as a united bloc that cannot be picked off one by one.
This is the future that the Ethiopian Freedom Fighters, including the valiant FANO, are unconsciously fighting for. Their struggle against centralised tyranny in Addis Ababa is a fight for a Ethiopia that is just and free internally, which is the essential first step towards being a trustworthy and reliable partner externally. A government that oppresses its own people can never be a genuine architect of regional peace. The Freedom Fighters’ demand for a decentralised, democratic Ethiopia aligns with this vision of a Horn of Africa where nations cooperate as equals, not as empires and vassals.The path to this unity is undoubtedly long and fraught with difficulty, built on the painful work of reconciliation and trust-building. But it is the only path that leads away from the graveyard. The alternative—the regime’s path of coercion and war—offers only a future of endless bloodshed, poverty, and foreign domination.
The call is for a new generation of leaders to emerge, not from the palaces of power, but from the people. Leaders who see the mountain we must bear together and who have the courage to begin weaving the threads. Our strength, our prosperity, and our true sovereignty lie not in conquest, but in connection.
The Power of the People: The Unbreakable Will That Outlives Empires
In the grand chessboard of the Horn of Africa, where regimes in Addis Ababa and Asmara move populations and armies like pawns in their game of eternal rivalry, they consistently forget one fundamental truth: the board itself is made of living, breathing people. Ultimately, Ethiopia’s future—its destiny, its sovereignty, its very soul—will not be decided solely by the decrees of politicians or the schemes of generals. It will be forged by the unwavering will of its people, an immense and profound power that has endured centuries of oppression and whose desire for justice, peace, and simple human dignity remains the most unbreakable force in our land.
There is an Amharic adage that has guided us through darker times than these: “A thousand rulers may pass over the bridge, but the river of the people flows on forever.” The rulers—the emperors, the dictators, the revolutionary vanguards who became the new oppressors—they all believe their time is eternal. They build statues, rewrite history books, and threaten their critics into silence. But they are merely passing over the bridge. The true constant, the enduring current that shapes the land itself, is the river of the people. Their collective will for a better life, their memory of injustice, and their hope for their children’s future constitute a force that no army can ultimately defeat and no propaganda can permanently suppress.
This power manifests not in grand palaces, but in quiet, defiant acts of resilience:
It is in the Ethiopian Freedom Fighters of FANO and other groups, who, labelled as ‘militias’ by a state that fears them, embody the people’s right to resist annihilation. They are not a rogue faction; they are the logical, armed manifestation of a people pushed beyond the brink, defending their homes and their right to self-rule against a central government that offers only subjugation.
It is in the farmer who tills his land despite the fear of soldiers requisitioning his harvest.
It is in the mother who teaches her child the history the state tries to erase.
It is in the artist whose song carries a coded message of resistance.
It is in the diaspora member who sends money not to the state, but to those suffering under its boot.
The regimes in Addis Ababa and Asmara operate on the outdated belief that power is seized through the barrel of a gun and maintained through fear. But true, lasting power is granted—and it can be withdrawn. The current Ethiopian government’s fatal error is its belief that it can orchestrate a nationalistic war for the sea while simultaneously waging a brutal war on its own people in Amhara, Oromia, and elsewhere. It fails to understand that a nation cannot be united by force; unity is voluntary, earned through justice and respect.
The people’s desire for peace is not a sign of weakness, but the ultimate source of strength. It is this desire that will ultimately judge the failed leaders. Those who choose war over dialogue, oppression over inclusion, and pride over prosperity will be swept away by the relentless flow of the river. They will become footnotes in the history that the people themselves will eventually write.
The future of Ethiopia belongs to the people who plant its seeds, weave its cloth, and uphold its deepest values of community and justice. The politicians and generals are temporary. The river is eternal. The unbreakable will for dignity flows on, and it is this current that will one day carve out a nation worthy of its people—a nation not just of borders, but of belonging; not just of power, but of peace.
The path forward is not through empty threats or undignified pleas. It is through the rediscovery of our own historical sovereignty. It is through internal unity, economic resilience, and a diplomatic corps that carries the dignified resolve of Menelik’s envoys, not the begging bowl of a debtor nation. Our cause is just. Our right is historical. Our need is logical.
However, the pursuit of this goal must be as dignified as the goal itself. The Prime Minister’s threats and the erratic purging of anyone deemed insufficiently hawkish reveal a desperation that undermines our cause. It makes our pursuit seem like an avaricious land-grab rather than the righteous claim of a nation seeking its natural and historical rights. This plays directly into the hands of President Isaias Afwerki, a master strategist who thrives on the chaos of others. He now sits back, the defender of a smaller nation’s territorial integrity, while our government is cast as the regional bully in the international press. We have handed him a propaganda victory on a silver platter.
Brinkmanship is the strategy of the gambler, not the statesman. It is a betrayal of our people’s hope for peace and a betrayal of the dignified legacy of our ancestors. We must remember: you cannot build a lasting future on the foundation of a threatened explosion. The path to the sea must be paved with wisdom, not littered with the debris of a war we were foolish enough to start.
Furthermore, their solutions often come with invisible chains. They speak of “dialogue” and “engagement,” but the terms of that dialogue are often set in Washington, London, and Brussels, not in Addis Ababa or Asmara. Their mediation can often lead to externally imposed agreements that create dependency, force concessions that serve their interests over ours, and compromise our ability to determine our own future. We have seen this pattern before, where their aid and support are conditional on adopting policies that benefit their corporations and their geopolitical standing, not our farmers or our industries.
The AU’s inaction is a betrayal of the Pan-African dream. It creates a vacuum that is eagerly filled by foreign powers—the Americans, Europeans, and Gulf States—who then dictate terms that serve their interests, not Africa’s. By failing to act, the AU is not preserving African sovereignty; it is auctioning it off to the highest bidder.
This is not mere stubbornness; it is a calculated application of principled diplomacy. Principled diplomacy does not mean a refusal to ever talk. It means a refusal to be dictated to. It means establishing immutable preconditions for engagement: mutual respect, the absence of threats, and the unequivocal acknowledgement of sovereignty and territorial integrity. By holding this line, Isaias Afwerki forces the entire diplomatic equation to revolve around Eritrea’s terms. He understands that entering talks while Ethiopian troops are massing on the border and officials are threatening war would be tantamount to surrender before a word is even spoken. It would legitimise aggression as a viable tool of statecraft.
The charge of being ‘pro-Eritrea’ is particularly cynical. It deliberately conflates two very different things: treasonous allegiance to a foreign state and a rational understanding of an adversary. A general like Bacha, who acknowledges the fighting prowess of the Eritrean Defence Forces, is not praising an enemy; he is stating a fact any competent commander must understand winning. A security chief like Redwan, who understands the complexities of President Isaias Afwerki’s mindset, is not an apologist; he is an asset. Silencing them means going to war without a true understanding of the enemy—a guaranteed path to catastrophic miscalculation.
This silence is a powerful political statement. It exposes the hypocrisy of a government that speaks of national unity while waging a brutal war on its own people in Amhara and Oromia, and having done so recently in Tigray. How can a regime demand solidarity for an external project of sovereignty when it has so viciously violated the internal sovereignty of its own constituent nations? The Tigrayan leadership’s stance highlights a simple, powerful equation: meaningful solidarity is earned, not commanded. It is built on a foundation of mutual respect, justice, and a guaranteed share in power. It cannot be extracted at the point of a gun or through empty slogans.
True strength, the kind that would make Ethiopia unassailable, lies in its ability to create a voluntary and joyful union. Before the government can demand that Tigray, Amhara, or Oromia stand with it against Eritrea, it must first prove it stands for them. It must engage in an unconditional national dialogue to address the legitimate demands of all its peoples.
The Sudan alliance is a lesson in realpolitik. It proves that in the Horn of Africa, security is a collective endeavour. For Eritrea, it is a powerful anchor against the flood. For the Ethiopian regime, it is a formidable new chain restraining its ambitions. And for the Ethiopian Freedom Fighters, it is a testament to the fact that the government’s external failures are born directly from its internal oppressions. True security begins at home, not with the annexation of a neighbour’s shore.
Secondly, it betrays the cause of peace. True statesmanship at this moment would involve using Somalia’s voice to urgently call for de-escalation and for the African Union to finally awaken from its slumber to mediate. Instead, this attempt to minimise the crisis is a gift to the hawks in both capitals. It allows Eritrea’s President Isaias to further frame Ethiopia as an unprovoked aggressor, and it allows Ethiopia’s ruling party to continue its dangerous game without regional pressure. It leaves the field open for non-African powers to dictate the terms of any mediation, further eroding our continental sovereignty.
This oppressive climate is precisely why the resistance of the Ethiopian Freedom Fighters, including the heroic FANO, is not an act of division but the ultimate act of patriotism. They understand that a nation that silences its own people is already lost. Their fight is to liberate Ethiopia from this very tyranny—to reclaim the right to debate, to differ, and to determine a collective future without the threat of state-sanctioned violence. They fight for an Ethiopia where love of country is expressed through the vibrant, chaotic, and robust exchange of ideas, not through forced chants at the point of a gun.
True statesmanship lies not in surrendering to a false inevitability, but in courageously charting an alternative course. The history of our region is littered with the bones of those who believed war was the only answer. The previous conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea (1998-2000) solved nothing; it only entrenched bitterness, cost tens of thousands of lives, and hardened borders that should have been softened by commerce and cooperation. To choose this path again is not strength; it is a tragic admission of diplomatic and intellectual bankruptcy. It is to value a patch of land or a stretch of coastline more than the lives of an entire generation of Ethiopians and Eritreans, who deserve peace and prosperity.
An Oromo proverb offers a timeless guide for this responsibility: “He who shouts from the mountain top does not know what is happening in the valley.” The diaspora has a view from the mountain. You have access to information, to foreign governments, to media outlets, and to financial resources that those trapped in the valley of repression and propaganda do not. You can see the larger geopolitical picture, the dire economic consequences of conflict, and the universal principles of human rights that the regime is violating daily. To use that vantage point merely to echo the regime’s jingoistic slogans is a betrayal of your unique position. Instead, you must shout a different message back into the valley: a message of caution, of strategy, and of peace.
An Amharic adage warns of the danger of a single story: “Until the lion learns to write, every tale will glorify the hunter.” The official media in Ethiopia and Eritrea are instruments of the hunter. They exist to glorify the state, to sanitise its failures, and to demonise its enemies—whether they be neighbouring nations or internal groups like the FANO Freedom Fighters. They peddle a manufactured reality where complex geopolitical struggles are reduced to simplistic tales of patriotic triumph and foreign villainy. To rely on these sources is to see the world through a distorted lens, one designed to provoke emotion and suppress critical thought.
The people of Eritrea, no strangers to sacrifice and isolation, would likewise bear the horrific brunt of a conflict, their resilience tested once more by a government that has always prioritized national security over individual well-being.
This is the future that the Ethiopian Freedom Fighters, including the valiant FANO, are unconsciously fighting for. Their struggle against centralised tyranny in Addis Ababa is a fight for a Ethiopia that is just and free internally, which is the essential first step towards being a trustworthy and reliable partner externally. A government that oppresses its own people can never be a genuine architect of regional peace. The Freedom Fighters’ demand for a decentralised, democratic Ethiopia aligns with this vision of a Horn of Africa where nations cooperate as equals, not as empires and vassals.Conclusion: The Crossroads of Destiny
The path ahead for Ethiopia is fraught with both peril and possibility, a narrow ridge between the abyss of perpetual war and the uplands of hard-won peace. The dark clouds of conflict gathering over the Horn of Africa do not stem from an unavoidable fate, but from the calculated choices of failed leadership, the intoxicating poison of hubris, and the cynical manipulation of a people’s legitimate pride. As the regimes in Addis Ababa and Asmara beat the drums of war, they offer a false binary: either blind allegiance to their destructive ambitions or betrayal of the nation itself.
We must reject this poisonous choice.
Our fight—the true and righteous fight—is not for a greater empire, but for a just, united, and free Ethiopia. It is a struggle that operates on two inseparable fronts: the external resistance against foreign aggression and the internal resistance against domestic tyranny. This demands wisdom from those who would lead, wisdom that understands that true strength lies in building up the nation, not in breaking its neighbours. It demands immense courage from our Freedom Fighters, including the gallant FANO, who embody the people’s unyielding will to defend their homes and their right to self-determination against a central government that has chosen the boot over the open hand.
Most of all, it demands critical engagement from every citizen, at home and abroad. We must not be passive spectators to our own destruction. We must question, challenge, and hold power to account. We must recognise that exchanging the overt oppression of one group for the disguised oppression of another, or sacrificing our sacred principles of justice and democracy on the altar of short-term expediency, is not victory—it is a perpetuation of the same cycle that has plagued us for generations.
An old Somali adage reminds us, “The forest does not resent the fire that destroys it, for it knows the same sun will help it grow again.” Our nation has been burned before. We have endured fires that sought to consume our spirit. Yet, like the forest, we have always regenerated, drawing on a resilience that has weathered millennia of storms. This spirit—proud, unbroken, and clear-eyed—is our greatest compass. It is this spirit that must guide us now through the tempest.
The world is watching, eager to see if we will succumb to the base instincts of conflict or rise to the higher calling of our history. Let us show them what it truly means to be Ethiopian. Let us show them that our sovereignty is not measured by the coastline we control, but by the justice we uphold within our borders. Let us prove that our dignity is not won by conquering others, but by mastering ourselves and forging a future where every Ethiopian can live in peace, security, and freedom. The river of the people flows on forever. It is now our duty to ensure it flows toward justice.
Viva Ethiopia!
Ethiopia Autonomous Media
Ethiopia Autonomous Media
