Unfulfilled Promises: Why the Pretoria Peace Agreement Has Failed Tigray

Why Invading Forces Remain in Tigray—and What It Means for Peace Efforts

At a critical juncture in Ethiopia’s turbulent political landscape, representatives of the highest ranks of some of the world’s most influential nations recently met with the leadership of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Delegates from the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany, Italy, France, Denmark, and the European Union convened to deliberate on the critical situation in Tigray—a region grappling with the repercussions of conflict, displacement, and humanitarian crises. The meeting was attended by Comrade Amanuel Assefa and Ms. Fetlewerk Gebre-Egziabher, Head of the Office of the Party, and it was emphasised that the implementation of the Pretoria Peace Agreement, a significant accord intended to bring about lasting peace, has been unsuccessful and has become a symbol of broken promises.

The stakes could not be higher. For a period exceeding three years, the populace of Tigray has suffered unspeakable hardship, encompassing famine, disease, and systematic violence, amidst an ongoing war that has drawn censure from the international community. The leadership of the TPLF has emphasised that the ongoing presence of invading forces in Tigray, in conjunction with the failure to facilitate the return of displaced populations and the initiation of meaningful reconstruction efforts, has resulted in the region teetering on the brink of collapse. They emphasised that the non-implementation of the Pretoria Agreement is not merely a breach of diplomatic protocol, but a catastrophic failure that perpetuates death, hunger, and despair among millions of civilians.

The significance of this subject lies in its capacity to transcend the narrow confines of Ethiopia’s regional politics, thereby evoking a universal responsibility that resonates across the globe. It underscores the collective obligation to forestall atrocities, to champion justice, and to ensure that those culpable for violations against vulnerable populations are held to account. As the global community grapples with the moral and ethical implications of inaction, the ongoing dialogue between global powers and Tigrayan leaders serves as a beacon of hope and a stark reminder of unfulfilled commitments. The onus, therefore, is on the international community to demonstrate its capacity to rise to this challenge, and thereby ensure that the suffering of the Tigrayan people is not consigned to the shadows of geopolitical indifference.

The Stalled Promise of the Pretoria Peace Agreement

The Pretoria Peace Agreement, which was signed in November 2022, was regarded as a significant breakthrough aimed at ending the devastating conflict in Tigray. The war had already resulted in the loss of numerous lives and the displacement of millions. The agreement, brokered under the auspices of the African Union with significant backing from international mediators, sought to establish a ceasefire, ensure the withdrawal of foreign and allied forces from Tigray, and pave the way for humanitarian aid delivery and political reconciliation. The Pretoria Agreement can be regarded as a vital lifeline for a region on the brink of collapse. However, almost two years later, the implementation of its key provisions remains woefully incomplete, casting doubt on its efficacy and exposing the deep fissures that continue to undermine peace efforts in Ethiopia.

A notable failure of the agreement is the failure to withdraw invading forces from Tigray. Despite explicit commitments to remove Eritrean troops and Amhara regional militias—forces accused of widespread atrocities—their continued presence has been a persistent obstacle to stability. Reports from human rights organisations and local sources indicate that these forces remain entrenched in strategic areas, perpetuating cycles of violence and intimidation. This refusal to vacate Tigray contravenes the terms of the agreement and erodes trust in the peace process, engendering scepticism among the TPLF and other stakeholders regarding the federal government’s capacity—or inclination—to enforce compliance.

A further cause for concern is the absence of advancement in the facilitation of the secure return of internally displaced persons (IDPs) to their places of origin. The number of Tigrayans who remain displaced is estimated to be exceeding two million, with many of those affected residing in overcrowded camps that are characterised by a paucity of essential resources, including food, clean water, and medical care. These conditions have resulted in a humanitarian crisis, characterised by the widespread prevalence of malnutrition and preventable diseases. The Pretoria Agreement explicitly called for measures to ensure the voluntary and dignified return of IDPs, yet little has been done to address the security concerns and infrastructure deficits that prevent families from reclaiming their livelihoods. Instead, many displaced individuals face the distressing choice of returning to areas still controlled by hostile forces or enduring indefinite exile within their homeland.

The agreement also included the delivery of humanitarian aid, yet this has been impeded by systemic blockades and bureaucratic hurdles. While the cessation of hostilities initially permitted the passage of some relief convoys into Tigray, access remains both inconsistent and inadequate. Aid workers have reported frequent delays, arbitrary checkpoints, and outright denials of entry, often attributed to disputes over logistics and security protocols. These impediments have consequently rendered millions reliant on sporadic assistance, thereby exacerbating the region’s already critical food insecurity. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), over 90% of Tigray’s population requires emergency aid, a figure that underscores the inadequacy of current efforts and highlights the urgent need for sustained international pressure to ensure unimpeded aid flows (OCHA, 2023).

The final pillar of the Pretoria Agreement, political reconciliation, has also faltered amid mutual distrust and competing narratives. The agreement stipulated the establishment of a framework for dialogue between the Ethiopian federal government and Tigrayan authorities with a view to addressing grievances and charting a course for future collaboration. However, the negotiations have been marred by accusations of bad faith, with each side blaming the other for obstructing progress. Critics argue that without genuine commitment from all parties—and robust international oversight—the prospects for meaningful reconciliation remain bleak.

The consequences of these failures are profound and far-reaching. For the populace of Tigray, the non-implementation of the Pretoria Agreement has meant protracted suffering, loss, and uncertainty. For Ethiopia as a nation, it has deepened divisions, eroded public confidence in governance, and tarnished its standing on the global stage. On the global stage, the situation gives rise to significant questions surrounding the efficacy of diplomatic interventions in protracted conflicts and the role of external actors in ensuring accountability. As the crisis continues, the Pretoria Peace Agreement risks becoming a symbol not of hope, but of unmet expectations, serving as a stark reminder of the challenges inherent in translating paper pledges into tangible peace.

The Unrelenting Suffering of Tigray: Hunger, Disease, and Systemic Violence

The Tigrayan people’s situation is regarded as one of the most distressing humanitarian crises of the modern era, distinguished by unrelenting hardship, starvation, and systemic violence. Despite the signing of the Pretoria Peace Agreement, which promised a period of respite and recovery, the reality on the ground tells a different story – one of continued deprivation and despair. Within refugee camps dispersed throughout the region, tens of thousands of Tigrayans confront circumstances that profoundly violate fundamental human dignity. Food shortages have reached catastrophic levels, with reports indicating that over 80% of the population faces acute food insecurity. Malnutrition rates among children under five have escalated sharply, with UNICEF issuing warnings of a “silent emergency” as thousands succumb to preventable illnesses exacerbated by hunger.

The crisis has been further compounded by disease outbreaks, thriving in environments where sanitation is virtually non-existent and healthcare services remain inaccessible. Cholera, measles, and malaria have surged in displacement camps, overwhelming already strained medical facilities. Doctors Without Borders (MSF) has documented cases of untreated wounds festering due to a lack of medical supplies, while pregnant women and newborns face heightened risks of mortality without access to maternal care. The psychological impact of these conditions cannot be overstated; survivors have reported witnessing loved ones perishing from starvation or treatable illnesses, their pleas for help unanswered amid the chaos.

However, the suffering extends beyond physical deprivation to encompass systemic violence and torture, perpetrated with impunity by occupying forces. Accounts from witnesses and investigative reports offer a disconcerting depiction of atrocities committed against civilians. Women and girls have been particularly targeted in this regard, with Amnesty International documenting widespread cases of gang rape, mutilation, and forced sterilisation. Survivors have described being held captive for extended periods, subjected to extreme brutality, and left with profound and lasting trauma. It is notable that men and boys have also been subject to arbitrary detentions, beatings and extrajudicial killings, which have become a regular occurrence, thereby instilling a fear of dissent and preventing any form of opposition.

These acts of violence are not isolated incidents, but part of a broader pattern of collective punishment targeting the Tigrayan population. These tactics include the razing of homes, the burning of crops, and the slaughter of livestock, with the aim of destroying livelihoods and forcing surrender. Entire villages have been emptied, with their inhabitants either killed or driven into exile. The deliberate destruction of infrastructure, including but not limited to schools, hospitals, and water systems, has rendered large swathes of Tigray uninhabitable, further entrenching cycles of displacement and dependency.

The magnitude of the suffering experienced in Tigray is beyond estimation, yet the global community remains largely uninformed of the events unfolding. Restrictions on media coverage, limitations on access for journalists, and the suppression of independent reporting have resulted in a pervasive silence surrounding Tigray, enabling atrocities to persist without scrutiny. When images do emerge, they reveal scenes of devastation that shock even seasoned observers: emaciated children clinging to life, elderly men scavenging for scraps, and mass graves bearing silent testimony to lives lost.

For those who survive, the psychological impact is profound. Mental health experts predict a generation traumatised by war, with PTSD, depression, and anxiety becoming endemic. Furthermore, the fracturing of familial bonds due to displacement, compounded by the rifts within communities caused by betrayal and loss, poses significant challenges in the process of reconstruction and healing. The Tigrayan people have demonstrated an undeniable resilience; however, it is imperative to recognise that resilience alone cannot be a sustainable solution. The failure to address the underlying causes of their suffering, namely the failure to implement the Pretoria Agreement and hold perpetrators accountable, will result in a perpetuated cycle of death and despair, leaving a legacy of pain for future generations.

The Persistent Presence of Invading Forces: A Barrier to Peace

Despite the explicit provisions of the Pretoria Peace Agreement, which stipulates the withdrawal of foreign and allied forces from Tigray, these troops persist in maintaining a presence within the region. This presence functions as a significant impediment to the attainment of sustainable peace. The ongoing occupation by Eritrean forces and Amhara regional militias represents a clear violation of the terms of the agreement, both in spirit and in letter. This in turn serves to perpetuate an environment of fear and instability. This defiance underscores a fundamental breakdown in trust between the parties involved and raises critical questions about the mechanisms—or lack thereof—for enforcing compliance with international accords.

Eritrean troops, whose involvement in the conflict has been widely condemned by human rights organisations, maintain control over strategic areas along Tigray’s northern border. Their presence is not merely symbolic; it represents a calculated effort to exert dominance and suppress dissent. Reports from local sources indicate that Eritrean soldiers frequently engage in looting, arson, and targeted attacks on civilians, actions that mirror the scorched-earth tactics employed during earlier phases of the war. These incursions are not random acts of aggression but part of a broader strategy to destabilise Tigray and weaken its capacity for self-governance. By maintaining their presence, Eritrea is sending a clear message that it intends to retain its influence over the region, thereby undermining Ethiopia’s sovereignty and complicating efforts to restore order.

Similarly, Amhara regional militias, operating under the guise of securing territorial claims, continue to occupy the western and southern parts of Tigray. Their actions have been characterised by land seizures, ethnic profiling, and the forced displacement of Tigrayan communities. These militias have frequently collaborated with federal forces, leveraging the power vacuum engendered by the conflict to advance their own political agendas. Their refusal to relinquish control over disputed territories has led to the resurgence of tensions and the resurgence of fears of renewed violence. For many Tigrayans, the presence of these forces evokes memories of past atrocities, creating a climate of mistrust that hinders reconciliation efforts.

The implications of this protracted occupation extend beyond immediate security concerns. The occupation fosters an environment in which impunity flourishes, emboldening perpetrators of human rights abuses and discouraging victims from seeking justice. Furthermore, the obstruction of humanitarian aid is a matter of significant concern, as supply routes are routinely blocked or rerouted through militarised zones. Reports by aid workers indicate instances of harassment, the confiscation of supplies, and the denial of access, which collectively serve to exacerbate the suffering of vulnerable populations. The failure to ensure the safety of convoys carrying relief supplies is indicative of the broader dysfunctionality of the peace process, where promises made on paper fail to translate into tangible outcomes on the ground.

From a diplomatic standpoint, the persistence of invading forces poses significant challenges to the process of mediating a resolution. The Ethiopian federal government, entrusted with the responsibility of overseeing the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement, appears to demonstrate either a lack of willingness or an inability to ensure compliance from its allies. This perceived lack of authority undermines the government’s credibility as a neutral arbiter and raises questions about its commitment to peace. Concurrently, international actors, notably the African Union and Western powers, are experiencing mounting pressure to adopt a more assertive stance. There has been an increase in the volume of calls for sanctions, arms embargoes, and targeted interventions, which reflect growing frustration with the current conditions.

The failure to remove invading forces from Tigray is perceived as a fundamental breach of the Pretoria Agreement, representing not only a violation of the principles of sovereignty, justice, and human dignity, but also a challenge to the very foundations of international order. Until this issue is addressed, any attempts at fostering peace will remain superficial, offering little solace to a population yearning for safety and stability. It is imperative for the international community to acknowledge that sustainable peace cannot be achieved through incremental measures or superficial rhetoric; decisive action is necessary to hold perpetrators accountable and ensure the implementation of the agreement’s terms. Only through such actions can Tigray begin to recuperate from the injuries inflicted by this protracted conflict.

The Tigray War: A Catastrophic Conflict Rooted in Power Struggles

The Tigray War, which commenced in November 2020, is not merely a regional skirmish but a complex and deeply rooted conflict born out of Ethiopia’s fractious political landscape. At its core, the war represents a collision of competing interests, historical grievances, and shifting power dynamics within one of Africa’s most populous and strategically significant nations. The conflict, which began as a dispute between the Ethiopian federal government, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) – a once-dominant political faction – quickly escalated into a devastating multi-front conflict involving regional militias, Eritrean forces, and various international actors. The genesis of this war can be traced back to the erosion of the TPLF’s influence following Abiy’s ascension to power in 2018, the subsequent reconfiguration of Ethiopia’s federalist system, and the simmering tensions that erupted into open hostilities.

Abiy Ahmed, who assumed office amid widespread hopes for reform and unity, inherited a deeply polarised political environment. His early manoeuvres to consolidate power, including the dissolution of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition, which had long been dominated by the TPLF, and the establishment of the Prosperity Party, were perceived by many Tigrayans as an attempt to marginalize their region and undermine its autonomy. The TPLF, which had played a central role in shaping Ethiopia’s post-Derg political order, viewed these changes as existential threats to their political and economic interests. This growing rift was further exacerbated by disagreements over constitutional interpretations, electoral processes, and resource allocations, culminating in a stand-off that neither side seemed willing to de-escalate.

The initial impetus for the conflict was provided by the TPLF’s decision in September 2020 to proceed with regional elections despite a nationwide postponement due to the prevailing circumstances of the time, namely the global pandemic of Coronavirus. The Abiy government deemed the vote to be unconstitutional and consequently imposed punitive measures, including the withholding of federal subsidies and the cessation of Tigray funding. In response, the TPLF accused the federal government of undermining Tigray’s sovereignty and prepared for potential confrontation. On 4 November 2020, tensions escalated significantly when the Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) initiated a military offensive in Tigray, alleging that the TPLF had attacked a federal military base. The subsequent military campaign was characterised by a series of brutal tactics, including indiscriminate airstrikes, artillery bombardments, and the deployment of allied forces, including Eritrean troops and Amhara militias.

The magnitude and severity of the violence elicited a profound global response. Within weeks, reports emerged of massacres, mass rapes, and the deliberate targeting of civilians. Axum, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, became the site of one of the war’s earliest atrocities, with hundreds of residents reportedly killed by Eritrean soldiers. Similar horrors unfolded across the region, as villages were razed to the ground, crops were destroyed, and entire communities were displaced. The Ethiopian government’s stated rationale for the offensive – that it sought to restore law and order and dismantle a “terrorist organisation” – was met with a degree of scepticism by human rights groups and foreign governments, who pointed to evidence of disproportionate force and systemic abuses.

As the war continued, its intricacies intensified. The involvement of Eritrea, whose President Isaias Afwerki shares a bitter rivalry with the TPLF dating back to the 1998-2000 border war, added another layer of geopolitical intrigue. Eritrean forces, operating in conjunction with Ethiopian troops, have been implicated in several egregious atrocities, including the siege of Tigray’s capital, Mekelle, and the obstruction of humanitarian aid. Concurrently, Amhara militias sought to reclaim territories they asserted were historically theirs, precipitating violent clashes and accusations of ethnic cleansing. The intricacies of the conflict, characterised by the multifarious nature of actors involved and their divergent objectives, further compounded the already challenging task of finding a resolution.

The humanitarian consequences of the Tigray War have been profoundly disastrous. According to the United Nations, the conflict has directly affected over 6 million people, which is almost the entire population of Tigray. A significant number of these individuals have been compelled to seek refuge, either within the country or in neighbouring states such as Sudan. The situation has been further exacerbated by the onset of famine-like conditions, resulting in food insecurity reaching unprecedented levels. Furthermore, health facilities have been deliberately targeted, resulting in survivors being denied access to essential healthcare. Furthermore, the collapse of education systems has deprived an entire generation of opportunities for growth and development.

The Tigray War has had a significant impact on Ethiopia, with critics suggesting that the war has exposed the fragility of the country’s federalist structure and raised questions about the viability of its ethnically based governance model. Critics contend that the centralisation of power in Addis Ababa has compounded regional disparities and fuelled resentment among marginalised groups. Conversely, proponents of the war argue that it has exposed the perils of authoritarianism, citing Abiy’s administration’s escalating reliance on coercive measures to suppress dissent. Irrespective of the interpretation, it is evident that the Tigray War is not merely a contest for territory or resources; it is a struggle over identity, representation, and the future of Ethiopia itself.

As the conflict enters its fourth year, the prospects for resolution remain uncertain. Despite the establishment of ceasefires and the initiation of peace agreements, these have been accompanied by significant challenges in their implementation. Trust between the warring parties is virtually non-existent, and the underlying issues driving the conflict remain unaddressed. The people of Tigray, caught in the crossfire of a war they did not choose, have faced immeasurable suffering. Their suffering serves as a poignant reminder of the human consequences of unchecked ambition, unresolved grievances, and the failure of diplomacy.

The Tigray Genocide: A Deliberate Campaign of Erasure

The term “genocide” is one of significant gravity, conjuring evocative memories of history’s most abhorrent episodes, from the Holocaust to the Rwandan Genocide. However, as the global community grapples with the atrocities unfolding in Tigray, mounting evidence suggests that the events in this war-torn region meet the criteria for genocide as defined by the 1948 United Nations Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. The systematic targeting of Tigrayans, coupled with acts of mass violence, sexual brutality, and cultural destruction, paints a chilling picture of a deliberate campaign to erase an entire population. This is not merely a war; it is an orchestrated effort to annihilate the Tigrayan identity, culture, and existence.

At the core of the Tigrayan genocide are patterns of violence that are unequivocal in their intent. Mass killings have become a hallmark of the conflict, with reports documenting the execution of civilians as a group in towns and villages across the region. One of the most egregious examples occurred in the town of Mai Kadra in November 2020, where hundreds of Tigrayans were slaughtered in a single night. Survivors have provided first-hand accounts of the systematic separation of men from women by armed militias, followed by their execution in a cold-blooded manner. These incidents are not isolated occurrences, but rather part of a broader strategy aimed at instilling terror and eliminating resistance.

Sexual violence has been employed as a weapon of war with chilling precision, with Tigrayan women and girls being targeted in a manner indicative of genocidal intent. Rape, frequently accompanied by mutilation and forced sterilisation, has been used not only to humiliate and degrade but also to disrupt reproductive continuity and destroy familial bonds. Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have documented numerous cases of gang rape by multiple soldiers, sometimes in front of family members, and have reported that the women have been branded with derogatory slurs or forced to ingest chemicals intended to induce infertility. These acts are not random acts of cruelty but calculated assaults on the very fabric of Tigrayan society.

The destruction of cultural heritage has been a central feature of this genocidal campaign. Historical sites, religious monuments, and educational institutions have been deliberately targeted, with a view to eradicating symbols of Tigrayan heritage and identity. Axum, a city of great antiquity and revered as a cradle of Ethiopian Christianity, has been subject to unspeakable atrocities at the hands of Eritrean forces. These forces have desecrated churches, looted artefacts, and massacred worshippers. Educational institutions have been destroyed, libraries ransacked, and archives obliterated, severing the connection of future generations to their history and heritage. This cultural erasure cannot be considered collateral damage; rather, it is a deliberate attempt to obliterate the collective memory of the Tigrayan people.

The application of ethnic profiling and forced displacement serves to emphasise the genocidal nature of the conflict. Tigrayans residing outside the region have been subjected to arrest, detention, and expulsion based on their ethnicity alone. In urban areas such as Addis Ababa, Tigrayans have been detained as a group in overcrowded facilities without charge, subjected to inhumane treatment and denied fundamental legal protections. Those who remain in Tigray are often forcibly displaced from their ancestral lands, with Amhara militias seizing property and declaring it “historically theirs.” This systematic dispossession not only strips Tigrayans of their livelihoods but also seeks to erase their presence from the land they have inhabited for centuries.

The intent behind these actions is unmistakable. From the outset, certain factions have utilised dehumanising rhetoric to portray Tigrayans as enemies of the state, thus legitimising their persecution. The TPLF and, by extension, all Tigrayans, have been portrayed as terrorists seeking to destabilise Ethiopia by political leaders and media outlets. This demonization has created an environment where atrocities against Tigrayans are normalised, if not celebrated, further entrenching cycles of hatred and violence.

The international community’s response to the Tigray genocide has been widely criticised as inadequate, giving rise to concerns about global complicity. Despite the mounting evidence of crimes against humanity, calls for accountability have been met with reluctance or outright dismissal. Some nations, keen to preserve strategic partnerships with Ethiopia, have sought to minimise the severity of the crisis, focusing instead on diplomatic niceties. Consequently, survivors of the Tigray genocide are left to grapple with the disconcerting realisation that the global community may truly view them as expendable.

The parallels that can be drawn between the Tigray genocide and other genocides that have occurred throughout history are indisputable. The Tigrayan people have been targeted for annihilation based on their ethnic and cultural identity, in a manner analogous to the Armenians in Ottoman Turkey, the Jews in Nazi Germany, and the Tutsis in Rwanda. A salient difference between the Tigray genocide and other genocides is the fact that the former is being witnessed and documented in real-time, thanks to the ubiquity of social media and satellite imagery. The question that now arises is not one of awareness but of action.

The failure to recognise and respond to the Tigray genocide carries profound moral and ethical implications. It has the effect of diminishing the value of human life, thereby emboldening the perpetrators of these atrocities and setting a dangerous precedent for future conflicts. For the international community, acknowledging the genocidal nature of the atrocities in Tigray is not merely a matter of semantics; it is a moral imperative. The pursuit of justice necessitates the accountability of those responsible, not only to honour the memory of the victims but also to prevent the recurrence of similar atrocities elsewhere.

As the world watches, the people of Tigray cling to hope, praying that their suffering will not be forgotten. However, it is imperative to recognise that hope alone is insufficient to prevent a genocide. The call for action is both urgent and decisive, and must be unwavering. The present moment is of paramount importance; the opportunity to act must be seized before the pages of history are consigned to yet another chapter of human tragedy.

Abiy Ahmed’s War Crimes: A Legacy of Impunity

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s tenure, once regarded as a paradigm of reform and reconciliation, has come under increasing scrutiny due to allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity arising from his handling of the Tigray conflict. The Nobel Peace Prize laureate, awarded in 2019 for his efforts to resolve the decades-long border dispute with Eritrea, now finds himself at the centre of a storm of accusations that challenge the very foundations of his leadership. A central tenet of these allegations concerns the conduct of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) during the war, which has been marred by indiscriminate airstrikes, mass killings, and the deliberate obstruction of humanitarian aid. Critics argue that these actions constitute grave violations of international law and underscore a pattern of impunity that has emboldened further atrocities.

A particularly egregious aspect of Abiy’s involvement in the conflict pertains to the ENDF’s utilisation of airstrikes against civilian targets. Since the onset of hostilities in November 2020, Ethiopian military aircraft have repeatedly bombed markets, schools, and residential areas in Tigray, resulting in significant loss of life and widespread destruction. A notable incident occurred in June 2021, when an airstrike on a marketplace in Togoga resulted in the deaths of at least 50 individuals and injuries to numerous others, many of whom were women and children. Eyewitnesses have described scenes of chaos and carnage, with bodies strewn across the ground and survivors desperately searching for loved ones amidst the rubble. Despite the mounting evidence linking these attacks to the ENDF, Abiy’s administration has consistently denied responsibility, attributing such incidents to “misinformation” or claiming they were unintended collateral damage. However, investigations by independent monitors, including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, have revealed a disturbing trend of targeting densely populated areas, suggesting intent rather than accident.

Moreover, the role of Ethiopian forces in perpetrating mass killings and ethnic-based violence is equally troubling. Reports from human rights organisations document numerous instances where ENDF soldiers, often operating alongside Eritrean troops and Amhara militias, have carried out summary executions and massacres against Tigrayan civilians. In Dedebit, a town in western Tigray, it has been reported that Ethiopian forces rounded up dozens of men and boys, accusing them of supporting the TPLF, before executing them as a group. Similar atrocities have been reported in Axum, Adwa and other locations, creating a comprehensive and damning picture of systematic violence aimed at instilling fear and suppressing any form of opposition. These actions bear striking similarities to historical precedents of war crimes, thereby raising questions about whether Abiy’s government has crossed the threshold into criminal culpability.

A particularly insidious aspect of the Ethiopian government’s strategy has been its deliberate obstruction of humanitarian aid to Tigray. From the onset of the conflict, federal authorities implemented a de facto blockade, resulting in the disruption of essential supplies such as food, medicine, and fuel. This tactic, often justified as a means of weakening the TPLF, has had devastating consequences for the civilian population. According to the United Nations, over 90% of Tigray’s population relies on emergency assistance, yet aid deliveries have been sporadic and insufficient due to bureaucratic hurdles, arbitrary checkpoints, and outright denials of access. In some cases, aid convoys have been looted or destroyed by Ethiopian forces, leaving millions without access to life-saving resources. The World Food Programme (WFP) has condemned the blockade, terming it as “famine as a weapon of war,” implicating Abiy’s administration in a potential crime against humanity.

Abiy’s defence of these actions has been characterised by a combination of denial, deflection, and defiance. In public statements, he has portrayed the conflict as a necessary measure to restore law and order and dismantle a “terrorist organisation”. Moreover, he has dismissed allegations of war crimes as politically motivated falsehoods, accusing foreign governments and NGOs of bias and interference. Concurrently, his administration has exhibited a reluctance to accede to calls for independent investigations, invoking national sovereignty and the imperative to safeguard classified information. This position has been met with criticism from legal experts, who contend that the shielding of perpetrators from accountability undermines the rule of law and perpetuates cycles of violence.

The alleged war crimes of Abiy have consequences that extend beyond the borders of Ethiopia, giving rise to grave concerns regarding the international community’s response to gross violations of human rights. Despite the existence of mounting evidence of atrocities, the global reaction has been tepid at best. While some nations have issued condemnations, few have taken concrete steps to hold Abiy’s government accountable. Sanctions imposed by the United States and European Union have been limited in scope, sparing key sectors of Ethiopia’s economy and failing to exert meaningful pressure. Furthermore, endeavours to submit the case to the International Criminal Court (ICC) have been hindered by geopolitical considerations, with certain member states being reluctant to antagonise a strategic ally in the Horn of Africa.

Critics contend that this absence of accountability communicates a perilous message: that leaders can perpetrate egregious violations with impunity, provided they retain sufficient leverage on the global stage. For Abiy, whose reputation as a peacemaker has been irreparably tarnished, the absence of consequences has only emboldened further transgressions. His persistent disregard for international norms has the potential to erode public confidence in multilateral institutions and to subvert the global efforts to promote justice and accountability.

As the Tigray conflict continues, the issue of accountability remains a pressing concern. Will Abiy Ahmed be held to account for his alleged war crimes, or will he join the ranks of leaders who have escaped prosecution despite substantial evidence of wrongdoing? The answer to this question will have consequences not only for the future of Ethiopia, but also for the broader trajectory of international law and human rights advocacy. For the populace of Tigray, who have suffered unspeakable hardship under his governance, the pursuit of justice is not merely an ideal but a matter of survival, and a testament to their resilience in the face of adversity.

Displacement and Despair: The Unending Plight of Tigray’s Refugees

The Tigray conflict has left an indelible mark on the region, with its profound impact on displacement, engendering a state of limbo for millions of Tigrayans, characterised by uncertainty, fear, and deprivation. The war has resulted in over two million internally displaced persons (IDPs) and hundreds of thousands seeking refuge in neighbouring countries such as Sudan. The human cost of the war is evident in the faces of those who have been forcibly displaced from their homes. For these individuals, the inability to return to their communities is not merely a logistical challenge, but a profound existential crisis, which compounds the trauma of war with the indignities of prolonged exile.

The reasons for this mass displacement are numerous and complex, rooted in the deliberate strategies employed by invading forces to destabilise Tigray and suppress its population. In numerous instances, civilians have fled to escape immediate threats to their lives. Reports have been made of villages being set alight, crops being destroyed, and livestock being slaughtered in campaigns designed to render areas uninhabitable. Survivors have recounted harrowing experiences of fleeing at night, carrying only the clothes on their backs, as artillery rained down around them. Furthermore, there are accounts of individuals being forcibly evicted from their homes by militias, with motives including the appropriation of land and the reprisal for alleged allegiances to the TPLF. The consequences of these actions have been profound, resulting in the fragmentation of communities, the dispersal of their members across makeshift camps and densely populated urban areas.

The experience of living in a state of displacement is characterised by unrelenting hardship. Within the context of Tigray, the conditions in displacement camps are particularly dire, characterised by overcrowding, inadequate sanitation, and limited access to necessities. This creates a conducive environment for the outbreak and propagation of diseases. The distribution of food aid is often erratic, and when it is distributed, it is often spoiled or insufficient to meet nutritional needs. The scarcity of clean water further exacerbates the already dire conditions, with families resorting to contaminated sources due to limited access, which in turn increases the risk of illness. The absence of adequate healthcare exacerbates the vulnerability of pregnant women, infants, and the elderly. Furthermore, the disruption to education and play in the lives of children has been well-documented, resulting in an environment where trauma is internalised, and future prospects are severely limited.

For those who have sought refuge abroad, the challenges are no less daunting. In eastern Sudan, where over 60,000 Tigrayans have sought refuge since the onset of the conflict, refugee camps are operating at maximum capacity. The limited resources available are distributed unevenly, and tensions between the host communities and new arrivals occasionally escalate into violence. The presence of language barriers, cultural differences, and the absence of formal education programs further isolates refugees, deepening their sense of alienation. Those who secure employment frequently encounter exploitation, working long hours for low wages in informal sectors. The psychological impact of displacement is profound, with many grappling with feelings of loss, guilt, and hopelessness as they confront an uncertain future.

The situation is further complicated by the uncertainty surrounding the prospects of return for these individuals. For IDPs, the presence of occupying forces and ongoing insecurity in their native regions renders repatriation perilous. Land disputes, particularly in areas claimed by Amhara militias, add another layer of complexity, as displaced Tigrayans fear losing their ancestral lands altogether. Efforts to facilitate voluntary returns have been hindered by inadequate guarantees of safety and support, leaving many reluctant to take the risk. Concurrently, refugees residing abroad encounter bureaucratic impediments, including protracted asylum procedures and restrictive immigration policies, thereby perpetuating their separation from their relatives and familiar environments.

The profound emotional impact of displacement on individuals and communities cannot be overstated. For Tigrayans, land represents more than mere physical space; it is a repository of identity, history, and belonging. The loss of access to their homes is perceived to be a loss of a part of themselves, resulting in the severing of ties to their ancestors and traditions that define their identity. Elders have spoken of abandoned farms and sacred sites, expressing profound sorrow for the erosion of communal bonds that once sustained them. Concurrently, younger generations find themselves grappling with the dissonance between their memories of life before the war and the stark realities of the present. The resultant effect is a collective grief that permeates every aspect of daily existence.

However, in the midst of adversity, there is a persistent resilience. Within the context of camps and settlements, communities have adopted collective action strategies, encompassing the establishment of temporary educational institutions, the equitable distribution of limited resources, and the preservation of cultural practices that serve to affirm their collective humanity. Initiatives led by women seek to empower survivors of gender-based violence, while youth-led awareness campaigns highlight the plight of the displaced. These actions, though seemingly modest, symbolise the fortitude and dignity that define the Tigrayan spirit.

The inability of displaced Tigrayans to return home underscores the broader failures of the peace process and the urgent need for comprehensive solutions. The absence of substantive progress in implementing the Pretoria Agreement, including the withdrawal of invading forces, the resolution of land disputes, and investment in reconstruction, will result in millions remaining ensnared in cycles of displacement and dependency. The international community must recognise that addressing this crisis requires more than mere rhetorical expressions of sympathy; it necessitates a sustained commitment to ensuring safe, dignified, and sustainable returns for all those affected. Until this commitment is realised, the aspiration of return remains unfulfilled, a goal which, for the affected populations, is tantalisingly unreachable, and which therefore continues to be a source of profound disquiet and emotional distress.

Rebuilding Amid Ruins: The Stalled Reconstruction of Tigray

The reconstruction of Tigray, which was envisaged as a fundamental component of the Pretoria Peace Agreement, continues to be mired in stagnation, resulting in the region’s physical and social infrastructure being significantly damaged. There has been a failure to fulfil promises made regarding the reconstruction of infrastructure, the revitalisation of the economy, and the restoration of public services. This has led to a decline in confidence in the commitment of both national and international actors to achieve genuine recovery. Instead of being a phase of profound transformation and renewal, as envisaged, it has devolved into a series of missed opportunities, further exacerbating the plight of a population that was already being subjected to immense suffering.

At the core of this failure is the Ethiopian government’s apparent disinterest in prioritizing Tigray’s rehabilitation. Despite repeated pledges of financial support, tangible investments have been conspicuously absent. Key sectors such as energy, transportation, and telecommunications, which are vital for any functioning society, continue to operate at minimal capacity, if at all. Electricity grids, which were once a source of pride in Ethiopia’s regional development model, remain non-operational, resulting in entire towns being subjected to perpetual darkness. Furthermore, roads, which are critical for trade and humanitarian access, are riddled with potholes and debris, rendering them impassable during the rainy season. Telecommunication towers, which symbolise connectivity and modernity, have been left inactive, severing Tigrayans from vital information and communication networks. This systemic neglect has far-reaching consequences, severely impeding daily life and economic activity, and engendering a pernicious cycle of dependency and despair for the region.

The absence of advancement in the reconstruction of educational and healthcare institutions exacerbates the crisis. Educational facilities, a significant proportion of which were destroyed during the war, remain closed or operate in extremely challenging conditions. The classrooms are overcrowded, the teachers are unpaid, and the learning materials are virtually nonexistent. In Mekelle, the region’s capital, students are compelled to sit on dirt floors beneath leaking roofs, their dreams of academic achievement effectively extinguished by the harsh realities of their environment. A similar situation pertains to healthcare facilities, which are unable to function effectively due to a lack of essential equipment, medicines, and trained personnel. Medical staff have been known to perform surgical procedures in conditions of severe darkness, and to ration supplies of antibiotics. The dearth of mental healthcare services further complicates the situation, as trauma-induced disorders remain unaddressed, perpetuating cycles of suffering across generations.

International donors and humanitarian organisations have been vocal in their condemnation of the situation; however, they have struggled to translate rhetoric into action. Financial pledges have materialised slowly, hindered by bureaucratic processes and geopolitical considerations. For instance, a $1 billion reconstruction fund announced by Western nations in early 2023 has yet to be fully disbursed, with critics accusing governments of using aid as leverage in broader diplomatic negotiations. Furthermore, projects initiated by NGOs often encounter obstruction from local authorities, who impose arbitrary restrictions on movement and resource allocation. This lack of coordination between stakeholders creates inefficiencies, resulting in the duplication of efforts in certain areas while others remain neglected.

Perhaps the most damning aspect of the situation is the absence of a comprehensive, inclusive strategy for reconstruction. The reconstruction efforts in Tigray have been piecemeal and reactive, with a focus on immediate relief rather than long-term sustainability. There is a conspicuous absence of a coherent vision for the integration of displaced populations, the restoration of livelihoods, and the promotion of community cohesion. Local leaders and civil society groups, who possess invaluable knowledge of the region’s needs, are routinely excluded from decision-making processes, side lining those best positioned to drive meaningful change. This approach, characterised by its top-down nature, has the effect of alienating communities and undermining the legitimacy of reconstruction initiatives. The result is a pervasive sense of resentment and mistrust.

The consequences of this stalled reconstruction extend far beyond material losses. These consequences are deeply intertwined with the identity and resilience of Tigray. For decades, Tigrayans have prided themselves on their ability to overcome adversity, transforming their rugged highlands into a hub of innovation and progress. However, this spirit is currently under siege. The lack of opportunities for education and employment among the younger generation has resulted in a growing sense of disillusionment, with many turning to migration or engaging in illicit activities as a means of survival. Elders, custodians of cultural heritage, observe with concern the fading of traditions and the fraying of communal bonds. The psychological impact of living in a state of destruction, compounded by a pervasive sense of dignity and agency, portends a potential unravelling of the very fabric of Tigrayan society.

The failure to initiate adequate reconstruction in Tigray signifies more than a mere logistical deficit; it constitutes a betrayal of the region’s aspirations for renewal. Absent urgent and concerted action to address these deficiencies, the ramifications of war will persist, perpetuating cycles of economic deprivation, displacement, and despondency. The question remains: Will the global community respond to this moral imperative, or will the ruins of Tigray stand as a testament to broken commitments?

Pursuing Justice for the People of Tigray: Accountability in the Face of Atrocity

The pursuit of justice for the populace of Tigray is not merely a legal obligation; it is a moral imperative that transcends geographical and temporal boundaries. The atrocities perpetrated during the conflict, ranging from targeted massacres to systemic sexual violence, necessitate accountability that is commensurate with their gravity. However, the pursuit of justice is impeded by various factors, including domestic impunity, international indifference, and geopolitical manoeuvring. To ensure that the suffering of the Tigrayan people is not consigned to oblivion, concerted efforts must be made to hold perpetrators accountable, to provide reparations to victims, and to establish mechanisms for truth and reconciliation.

The primary objective of the justice agenda must be the prosecution of individuals responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity. The evidence collated by human rights organisations, investigative journalists, and survivor testimonies paints a damning picture of deliberate acts of violence against civilians. Mass graves discovered in towns such as Mahbere Dego and Dengelat provide compelling evidence of systematic executions. Sexual violence, frequently employed as a weapon of terror, has inflicted profound trauma on women and girls, many of whom are too distressed to seek assistance. These crimes, meticulously documented by entities such as Amnesty International and the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission, constitute violations of international law and should be prosecuted under universal jurisdiction statutes. However, achieving accountability has proven elusive, as domestic courts in Ethiopia lack independence, and international tribunals face significant political resistance.

One promising avenue for justice lies in leveraging the International Criminal Court (ICC). Even though Ethiopia has not signed the Rome Statute, the ICC’s jurisdiction extends to the investigation of crimes committed within the country’s borders, provided that a referral is made by the United Nations Security Council. Advocacy groups have advocated for such a referral, emphasising the court’s potential to deliver impartial verdicts and deter future atrocities. Nevertheless, the geopolitical dynamics inherent in the situation render the process complex. Historically, countries such as China and Russia, who are both permanent members of the Security Council, have consistently opposed ICC interventions, perceiving them as violations of national sovereignty. Likewise, Ethiopia’s strategic alliances with key powers may shield it from scrutiny, thereby highlighting the limitations of multilateral institutions in addressing human rights abuses.

Domestic accountability mechanisms, despite their inherent limitations, present an alternative avenue for addressing these concerns. The Ethiopian government has established a joint investigation team with the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) to probe allegations of war crimes. While this initiative may be regarded as a step towards greater transparency, there are significant concerns regarding the impartiality and the efficacy of this body. Critics contend that the government’s vested interest in shielding its forces undermines the credibility of findings. Furthermore, the absence of robust witness protection programmes deters survivors from coming forward, fearing retaliation or social ostracism. The enhancement of these mechanisms through the provision of technical assistance and the establishment of independent oversight has the potential to increase their impact, but only if there is a genuine political will to confront uncomfortable truths.

Reparations represent a further critical dimension of justice for Tigrayans. Beyond symbolic gestures, it is essential that reparations address the material and psychological harm inflicted upon victims. Financial compensation, medical care, and psychosocial support are recognised as fundamental to the healing process and enabling survivors to rebuild their lives with dignity. Land restitution, particularly for those displaced due to ethnic cleansing, is equally vital. However, the establishment of a just reparations framework is fraught with challenges. The identification of beneficiaries, the apportionment of resources, and the allocation of financial responsibility are all contentious issues. Civil society organisations and grassroots movements play a crucial role in advocating for inclusive policies that prioritise the needs of marginalised groups, including women, children, and the elderly.

Truth and reconciliation commissions (TRCs) offer a complementary approach to transitional justice, fostering dialogue and understanding between conflicting parties. Exemplary models, such as South Africa’s TRC, illustrate the efficacy of these platforms in unveiling hitherto concealed narratives, acknowledging wrongdoing, and fostering societal healing. For Tigray, the establishment of a TRC could provide a forum for victims to share their experiences, for perpetrators to acknowledge their actions, and for communities to devise strategies for peaceful coexistence. However, the success of such initiatives is contingent upon their independence, inclusivity, and accessibility. It is vital to ensure the involvement of diverse stakeholders, including diaspora communities, to capture the full spectrum of experiences and perspectives.

The amplification of calls for justice is dependent on international solidarity and advocacy. Diaspora networks, human rights organisations, and global citizens wield significant influence in shaping public opinion and pressuring policymakers. Campaigns such as #JusticeForTigray have mobilised global support, drawing attention to the plight of Tigrayans and demanding accountability from governments and institutions. Social media platforms have emerged as potent instruments for raising awareness, mobilising resources, and documenting abuses in real-time. However, sustaining this momentum requires vigilance and collaboration, as fatigue and competing priorities can threaten to diminish focus over time.

Ultimately, the pursuit of justice for the people of Tigray must be approached with a understanding that it is not a zero-sum game. Achieving this necessitates a nuanced approach that balances accountability with the promotion of reconciliation, addressing immediate needs while also laying foundations for long-term peace. Inaction carries with it the risk of normalising impunity, emboldening perpetrators, and perpetuating cycles of violence. It is incumbent upon the global community to introspect and pose the following questions: If justice for Tigray is not served, what hope remains for humanity’s collective conscience?

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front: Leadership, Legacy, and Challenges

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a dominant force in Ethiopian politics in the past, is now facing challenges due to changing alliances, evolving ideologies, and mounting pressures from domestic and international sources. As the primary representative of Tigrayan interests during the recent conflict, the TPLF has played a pivotal role in shaping the narrative around the war and advocating for the implementation of the Pretoria Peace Agreement. Nevertheless, the leadership of the TPLF is facing increased scrutiny as it deals with internal divisions, external criticism, and the considerable task of rebuilding trust among a population that is tired of war. A comprehensive understanding of the TPLF’s current position necessitates an examination of its historical trajectory, contemporary strategies, and the intricacies inherent in leading a fractured region towards recovery.

The TPLF’s origins can be traced back to the 1970s, when it emerged as a revolutionary movement, driven by a vision of self-determination for the Tigrayan people and a more profound social transformation across Ethiopia. Under the leadership of figures such as Meles Zenawi, the organisation spearheaded a successful insurgency against the Derg regime, culminating in the overthrow of Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991. For nearly three decades thereafter, the TPLF dominated Ethiopia’s ruling coalition, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), wielding significant influence over national policies and governance structures. This period was distinguished by notable achievements, including rapid economic growth, infrastructural development, and advancements in education and healthcare. However, this period was also marked by allegations of authoritarianism, corruption, and the marginalisation of other ethnic groups, which cast a shadow over the TPLF’s legacy.

The political landscape underwent a significant shift in 2018 with the ascension of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, whose reformist agenda sought to decentralise power and reduce the TPLF’s hegemony. Marginalised within the newly rebranded Prosperity Party, the TPLF retreated to Tigray, positioning itself as a defender of regional autonomy against what it perceived as encroachments by the federal government. This defensive posture was the catalyst for an escalation in tensions, which ultimately led to the outbreak of hostilities in November 2020. Throughout the conflict, the TPLF portrayed its resistance as a struggle for survival, positioning itself as the guardian of Tigrayan identity and sovereignty.

The TPLF Leadership: Navigating Advocacy, Governance, and International Diplomacy

In the highly polarised and volatile environment of post-conflict Ethiopia, the leadership of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) finds itself at a critical juncture, balancing the dual imperatives of governance and advocacy. This delicate equilibrium is embodied by key figures such as Debretsion Gebremichael, Chairman of the TPLF and Deputy Head of State for the Tigray region, and Getachew Reda, Chief Administrator of the Interim Regional Administration of Tigray. These leaders have emerged as pivotal voices in articulating the grievances of the Tigrayan people on both domestic and international platforms, leveraging their roles to galvanise support for the implementation of the Pretoria Peace Agreement and to hold adversaries accountable for its violations. Their interactions with global diplomats underscore not only the TPLF’s reliance on external pressure, but also its strategic use of diplomacy to amplify its message and secure tangible outcomes for the region.

Advocacy Amid Adversity: Amplifying Tigray’s Voice

Debretsion Gebremichael and Getachew Reda have persistently positioned themselves as staunch advocates for the rights and dignity of the Tigrayan people. In recent engagements with ambassadors and envoys from influential nations, including the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany, Italy, France, Denmark, and the European Union, they have articulated the crisis in Tigray as a humanitarian and moral imperative that demands urgent international attention. The meetings serve several purposes, including providing a platform to highlight ongoing atrocities, reinforce calls for accountability, and underscore the interconnectedness of regional stability and global security.

During these discussions, TPLF representatives have emphasised the catastrophic consequences of non-compliance with the Pretoria Agreement. They have articulated specific grievances, including the continued presence of invading forces, the obstruction of humanitarian aid, and the failure to facilitate the safe return of displaced populations. By presenting these issues as systemic failures rather than isolated incidents, the TPLF leadership seeks to shift the narrative from one of localized conflict to a broader indictment of Ethiopia’s federal government and its allies. For instance, Debretsion Gebremichael has repeatedly stressed that the withdrawal of Eritrean troops and Amhara militias is not merely a technical detail but a fundamental condition for restoring trust and fostering reconciliation. Similarly, Getachew Reda has highlighted the dire humanitarian situation in Tigray, framing it as evidence of deliberate neglect and collective punishment aimed at subjugating the Tigrayan population.

The rhetorical strategies employed by the TPLF leadership are calculated to resonate with international audiences. By invoking universal principles such as sovereignty, human rights, and the rule of law, they appeal to the ethical obligations of foreign governments and multilateral institutions. Concurrently, parallels are drawn between the plight of Tigray and other global crises, thereby positioning the struggle as part of a larger fight against impunity and injustice. This multifaceted approach has yielded varied outcomes, with some nations issuing condemnations and imposing targeted sanctions, while others have adopted a more cautious stance, wary of alienating Ethiopia, a pivotal geopolitical actor in the Horn of Africa.

Governance Under Siege: Rebuilding Amid Ruins

Beyond their role as advocates, Debretsion Gebremichael and Getachew Reda are charged with the governance of a region that has been devastated by war, displacement, and economic collapse. This responsibility adds another layer of complexity to their leadership, as they must navigate the immediate needs of their constituents while laying the groundwork for long-term recovery. The challenges they face are considerable: The Tigray region’s infrastructure is in a state of disrepair, its economy is in a state of decline, and its social fabric has been torn asunder by years of violence and mistrust. Confronted with these challenges, the leadership of the TPLF faces mounting pressure to demonstrate competence and resilience.

A matter of the utmost urgency has been to address the humanitarian crisis. Despite considerable impediments, including restrictions on movement and bureaucratic processes, local authorities have endeavoured to distribute essential supplies to affected communities. However, the magnitude of the crisis outstrips the capacity of the TPLF to provide adequate resources, compelling the TPLF to depend heavily on international aid organisations. This reliance has given rise to a precarious dynamic, characterised by the exposure of vulnerabilities and the concomitant reinforcement of the importance of maintaining strong diplomatic ties. In this context, Debretsion and Getachew have sought to establish themselves as reliable partners in these efforts, emphasising their commitment to transparency and collaboration.

Simultaneously, the leadership of the TPLF has endeavoured to reconstruct institutional capacity within Tigray. However, endeavours to reinstate fundamental services, including electricity, telecommunications, and healthcare, have been impeded by limitations in resources and persistent security concerns. Nonetheless, the partial reopening of schools and the repair of critical road networks have been identified as significant symbols of hope and resilience. These initiatives are frequently accompanied by public messaging campaigns that are designed to rally community support and foster a sense of agency among Tigrayans. The TPLF’s framing of reconstruction as a shared endeavour is intended to bolster its legitimacy and counteract narratives that portray it as an impediment to peace.

Strategic Diplomacy: Leveraging External Support

A fundamental aspect of the TPLF’s strategic approach entails engaging with the international community, thereby leveraging its position as a means to both amplify its message and exert influence. Recent meetings with ambassadors and diplomats reflect a concerted effort to build alliances and mobilise pressure on Ethiopia’s federal government and its allies. By presenting evidence of atrocities and documenting breaches of the Pretoria Agreement, TPLF representatives seek to bolster their case for intervention. This advocacy encompasses the recommendation of measures such as targeted sanctions, arms embargoes, and referrals to international judicial bodies like the International Criminal Court (ICC).

The TPLF’s diplomatic outreach extends beyond traditional state actors to include civil society organisations, media outlets, and grassroots movements. Recognising the influence of public opinion, Debretsion and Getachew have actively courted journalists and activists, providing them with access to first hand accounts of the conflict’s impact. This strategy has been instrumental in generating extensive media coverage of the crisis, thereby ensuring that the global spotlight remains firmly fixed on the situation, and countering any attempts to discredit or dismiss allegations of wrongdoing. The role of social media platforms in this regard is also worthy of note, given their capacity to enable direct communication between the TPLF and audiences worldwide, thus circumventing the conventional gatekeepers of information.

Nevertheless, the efficacy of these endeavours is contingent on the determination of external actors to act decisively. While certain nations have initiated proceedings to hold perpetrators accountable, others have accorded precedence to strategic interests over human rights concerns. This inconsistency highlights the limitations of reliance on international support, emphasising the necessity for complementary strategies that empower local stakeholders and foster self-reliance.

Challenges and Opportunities Ahead

The TPLF must navigate the complexities of advocacy and governance, whilst also confronting a series of formidable challenges. Internally, the organisation is faced with divisions within its ranks, scepticism from certain segments of the population, and the logistical difficulties of operating in a hostile environment. Externally, it faces resistance from powerful adversaries who view its survival as a threat to their dominance. However, these challenges also present opportunities for renewal and transformation. By maintaining a constructive engagement with the international community, the TPLF can generate momentum for significant reforms and ensure that the voices of Tigrayans are heard on the global stage.

The success of the TPLF’s leadership will be judged not only by its ability to secure short-term gains, but also by its capacity to lay the foundation for sustainable peace and prosperity. Achieving this balance will require the TPLF to demonstrate a nuanced approach, striking a delicate balance between asserting authority and fostering inclusivity, between confronting past injustices and envisioning a brighter future. As Debretsion Gebremichael and Getachew Reda continue to navigate this complex landscape, their decisions will shape not only the destiny of Tigray but also the trajectory of Ethiopia as a whole.

For the populace of Tigray, whose fortitude has been repeatedly and rigorously assessed, the consequences could not be more profound. The question arises whether the TPLF will rise to the occasion, delivering justice and healing to a wounded population. Alternatively, will the TPLF itself succumb to the same cycles of division and despair that have plagued the region for decades? The responses to these questions will determine whether Tigray exits this tumultuous period stronger and more unified, or whether it remains ensnared in a cycle of strife and misery.

Notwithstanding the diplomatic efforts, the TPLF is confronted with escalating challenges from multiple perspectives. Internally, the party must contend with divisions stemming from differing visions for Tigray’s future. While some factions advocate for continued militancy and resistance, others advocate for greater engagement with federal authorities to secure concessions through negotiation. These ideological rifts are further compounded by generational shifts, with younger members questioning the relevance of traditional hierarchies and calling for more inclusive decision-making processes. The TPLF’s association with past controversies—ranging from allegations of human rights abuses to accusations of monopolising resources—continues to tarnish its reputation, both domestically and internationally.

Externally, the TPLF must tread a delicate path, carefully balancing the assertion of Tigrayan interests while navigating the complexities of international relations to avoid isolation. The TPLF’s portrayal as a belligerent actor by certain factions within the Ethiopian government and media has the effect of complicating efforts to garner sympathy and solidarity. Conversely, the TPLF’s reliance on international allies has been met with accusations of opportunism, particularly when these relationships appear to be transactional in nature rather than grounded in shared principles. For instance, there have been criticisms of the TPLF’s alignment with Eritrea during earlier phases of the conflict, despite subsequent condemnations of Eritrean forces’ conduct in Tigray. These inconsistencies have the effect of undermining the credibility of the TPLF, and furthermore, they serve to fuel suspicions about the motives of the organisation.

Confronted with these challenges, the TPLF’s leadership is charged with the considerable responsibility of steering Tigray through a period of transition that is both opaque and uncertain. The rebuilding of trust with the local population is of paramount importance, and this will require transparent governance, equitable resource distribution, and meaningful participation in decision-making. Furthermore, it is crucial to nurture cohesion within the party ranks, thereby ensuring that a diversity of perspectives is both heard and respected. On the international stage, the TPLF must strike a balance between assertiveness and pragmatism, leveraging diplomatic channels to advance Tigray’s cause without alienating potential partners.

The ability of the TPLF to navigate these complexities will ultimately determine not only its survival but also the trajectory of Tigray’s recovery. As the region recovers from the impact of war, the following question arises: Can the TPLF transcend its troubled past and embrace a new paradigm of leadership – one rooted in accountability, inclusivity, and service to the people it claims to represent?

A Call to Action: Transforming Words into Deeds

The crisis in Tigray serves as a poignant illustration of humanity’s capacity for both cruelty and compassion. As the global community grapples with the repercussions of broken commitments, unanswered appeals, and systemic negligence, the question that confronts us is not merely rhetorical but of profound practical significance: What is required to reverse the situation in Tigray? The answer lies in a collective commitment to accountability, justice, and sustained solidarity—a triad of imperatives that must guide our response to this ongoing tragedy.

Accountability: Enforcing Promises and Ending Impunity

The concept of accountability must be considered non-negotiable in this context. The international community, in particular those nations and institutions that wield influence over Ethiopia’s government, must insist upon the realisation of substantive progress in implementing the Pretoria Peace Agreement. This entails the enforcement of stipulated deadlines for the withdrawal of invading forces, the restoration of essential services, and the facilitation of unimpeded humanitarian access. Furthermore, sanctions, targeted asset freezes, and visa bans should be considered against individuals and entities obstructing these efforts. Concurrently, there is a necessity to fortify the mechanisms for prosecuting war crimes and crimes against humanity, whether through the International Criminal Court (ICC), hybrid tribunals, or other judicial frameworks. The maxim ‘justice delayed is justice denied’ is pertinent here, and the world cannot afford to allow impunity to prevail.

For an extended period, the Ethiopian government and its allies have operated under the assumption that their actions will go unchecked. The ongoing presence of Eritrean troops and Amhara militias in Tigray, despite explicit commitments to withdraw, underscores the urgent need for enforcement mechanisms. The utilisation of diplomatic pressure alone has been inadequate; there is a necessity for concrete measures to ensure compliance. It is incumbent upon nations such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and members of the European Union to utilise their economic and political influence to hold violators accountable. Such measures could include the imposition of sectoral sanctions on key industries, the freezing of assets associated with perpetrators of atrocities, and the restriction of travel privileges for officials implicated in human rights abuses.

Furthermore, the concept of accountability encompasses not only punitive measures but also transparency and oversight. Independent investigations, led by credible bodies such as the United Nations or regional organisations, must be empowered to document violations and recommend corrective actions. The findings of such investigations should be used to inform policy decisions, ensuring that responses to violations are grounded in evidence rather than conjecture. By prioritizing accountability, the international community can convey a clear and unambiguous message: breaches of peace agreements and violations of human rights will not be tolerated.

Justice: Restoring Dignity Through Reparations

It is imperative to acknowledge the significance of the pursuit of justice for victims. The provision of reparations must transition from rhetoric to praxis, thereby becoming an integral component of the recovery process. This process must address the material, psychological, and social harms inflicted upon the populace of Tigray. International donors, humanitarian organisations, and the Ethiopian government must collaborate to design and fund comprehensive reparations programmes, prioritising marginalised groups such as women, children, and displaced people.

A comprehensive reparations program should encompass a range of interventions, including financial compensation for property loss and livelihood destruction, as well as psychosocial support for survivors of violence and trauma. Programmes aimed at rebuilding infrastructure, such as schools, hospitals and water systems, should prioritise inclusivity, ensuring that all communities benefit equitably. Furthermore, initiatives aimed at the restoration of cultural heritage sites and the preservation of historical artefacts can assist in the reclaiming of the identity and dignity of a population whose existence has been systematically undermined.

Furthermore, truth and reconciliation initiatives, grounded in inclusivity and transparency, can complement these efforts by fostering dialogue, acknowledging wrongs, and paving the way for societal healing. It is imperative that such processes are survivor-centred, ensuring the voices of those who have endured unimaginable suffering are heard and that perpetrators are held accountable for their actions. The efficacy of restorative justice, when implemented with integrity and empathy, is demonstrated by the lessons from past conflicts, such as South Africa’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission.

Solidarity: Amplifying Voices and Sustaining Momentum

Finally, it is imperative to emphasise the indispensability of sustained solidarity. It is incumbent upon the global community to maintain a state of heightened awareness, thereby ensuring that the voices of Tigrayans are given due prominence and that those in positions of leadership are held accountable for their actions – or, indeed, their inactions. Diaspora networks, advocacy groups, and concerned citizens play a vital role in keeping the spotlight on Tigray, ensuring that its plight does not fade from public consciousness. Social media campaigns, petitions, and grassroots mobilisations have the potential to translate public outrage into tangible outcomes.

Individuals worldwide also have a part to play. These contributions include education about the crisis, the sharing of reliable information, and advocacy for policy changes. Furthermore, the amplification of collective action through communication with elected representatives, the organisation of awareness events, and the provision of support to organisations operating in Tigray can serve to increase the impact of such actions. It is imperative to recognise that every effort, no matter how seemingly insignificant, contributes to a collective movement that demands justice and accountability.

The Stakes: A Choice Between Indifference and Humanity

The situation is of the utmost importance. Inaction carries with it the risk of perpetuating cycles of violence, displacement, and despair, not only in Tigray but also throughout Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa. The region’s instability poses significant challenges to global security, exacerbating refugee flows, fuelling extremism and straining already fragile ecosystems. Conversely, the adoption of decisive measures could facilitate the realisation of a new paradigm – a world where the commitments to peace, justice, and humanity are honoured, thereby paving the way for a more secure, stable, and prosperous future.

The judiciousness of our contemporary choices will be subject to historical scrutiny. The question therefore arises whether the international community will continue to stand idly by as another generation is scarred by conflict and neglect. The opportunity now exists to channel our resources, resolve, and compassion toward building a future rooted in equity and hope. The populace of Tigray merits no less, and neither does the wider human race.

Thought-Provoking Question:

If the act of remaining silent in the face of injustice can be considered an act of complicity, then what implications does this have for the global community in the context of Tigray?

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Ethiopia Autonomous Media

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  Troop Withdrawal from Tigray: A Non-Negotiable Step Toward Lasting Peace
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  Ethiopia’s Regional Security Strategy: Insights from Gurage Zone and Welkite City
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  The Enduring Legacy of the Battle of Adwa: A Beacon of Freedom and Unity
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  TPLF Rejects Calls for Third-Party Intervention in Tigray: A Stand Against External Influence

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