Fano and OLA Alliance: Ethiopia’s Ceasefire Pact Against Abiy Ahmed Explained

Ethiopia’s Unlikely Alliance: Inside the Fano-OLA Pact Against Abiy Ahmed’s Regime

In a seismic shift within Ethiopia’s devastating civil conflict, two of the government’s most formidable foes—the Amhara Fano Freedom Fighters and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA)—have forged a precarious tactical alliance. This comprehensive analysis delves into the fragile ceasefire agreement, brokered amidst profound historical enmity and facilitated by the Ethiopian diaspora, which has momentarily silenced guns in contested regions like Wollega. We explore the pivotal roles of key commanders—Gojam-based Zemene Kassie for Fano and the OLA’s steadfast leader Jaal Marroo—and the significant internal dissent within the decentralised Fano movement, particularly from sceptical commanders in Shewa. This pact, united by a single goal to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, represents a direct challenge to the regime’s core strategy of divide and rule. Yet, with fundamental differences over the status of Addis Ababa (Finfinnee), Wollega, and the future of the Ethiopian state entirely unresolved, the alliance is a calculated gamble. This article examines the potential for a coordinated military offensive, the risk of regime-sponsored false flag attacks, the critical role of international actors, and the beacon of hope this fragile understanding offers for a pan-Ethiopian resistance. Join us as we unpack the pact that could redefine the future of Africa’s second-most populous nation.

1. A Pact Forged in Necessity: The Unlikely Alliance Against a Common Foe

In the shadow of the Ethiopian highlands, where the scent of eucalyptus mixes with the acrid tang of gunpowder, a profound and pragmatic truth is being enacted: “Necessity makes strange bedfellows.” This ancient adage, whispered from fighter to fighter in the valleys of Gojam and the forests of Wollega, has never been more potent. It encapsulates the very essence of the nascent and fragile understanding between the Amhara Fano Freedom Fighters and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). This is not a pact born of shared ideology or a common vision for the future shape of Ethiopia. It is, unequivocally, a pact forged in the fire of necessity, with its singular, glaring objective being the removal of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

From the perspective of an Ethiopian Revolutionary Freedom Fighter, this necessity is not abstract; it is a daily, brutal reality. Abiy Ahmed’s regime is perceived not as a government, but as the chief architect of a calculated and devastating destabilisation. He arrived speaking a sweet language of unity, of Medemer (synergy), of a pan-Ethiopian prosperity that would finally bridge historical divides. Yet, for the Amhara farmer in Wollo and the Oromo pastoralist in Wollega, his reign has delivered only the bitter fruit of ethnic violence, state-sanctioned vendettas, and a terrifying erosion of national cohesion.

The regime’s strategy is considered a textbook application of divide and rule. To the Amhara people, Abiy Ahmed is the man who unleashed the might of the federal army and regional allies upon them, branding their youth as extremists for resisting what they saw as the existential erosion of their identity and constitutional rights. The Fano, born from this resistance, did not emerge from a vacuum but from the burning ashes of homes and the mass graves of innocent Amhara in Oromia and elsewhere—atrocities they believe were met with deliberate inertia or even complicity by the central government.

Conversely, to the Oromo people and the OLA, Abiy Ahmed is the ultimate betrayer. The Oromo youth who once cheered his rise, hoping he would address decades of marginalisation and realise the promise of genuine federalism, now see him as the master of an even more sophisticated oppression. His government is accused of continuing the violent suppression of Oromo dissent, employing drone strikes against civilian populations under the guise of counter-terrorism, and presiding over a system that promises autonomy but delivers brutal centralised control.

Therefore, the necessity becomes starkly clear. However deep the historical grievances and contested territorial claims between Amhara and Oromo nationalist movements—and they are deep and complex—they are both currently trapped in the same burning house, and the primary arsonist is identified as Abiy Ahmed. He has become the common denominator of their suffering. The Fano, in its fight for survival and dignity, and the OLA, in its struggle for liberation and self-determination, have reached a chilling, pragmatic conclusion: while their visions for the future may be irreconcilable, their immediate enemy is one and the same.

This is the raw, unvarnished truth of the pact. It is a tactical, military necessity born from the realisation that a divided resistance only strengthens the hand of the tyrant. It is a temporary shelving of one conflict to urgently address a more immediate and lethal one. It is an agreement to stop the bleeding from their mutual wounds so they can focus on removing the knife. For the freedom fighter on the ground, this is not about friendship or political unity; it is about survival and strategy. It is the embodiment of the adage—a necessary, if uncomfortable, alliance against a force that threatens to consume them both. The future beyond this common goal remains a cliff-edge of uncertainty, but for now, the necessity of the present forges the path ahead.

2. Ceasefire on the Ground: An Unspoken Truce for a Greater Fight

In the complex and brutal theatre of the Ethiopian conflict, where every gain is measured in blood and sacrifice, a profound and unexpected silence has fallen in certain contested lands. This silence is not the quiet of defeat, but the deliberate, hard-won pause of a ceasefire on the ground between the Amhara Fano Freedom Fighters and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). To those of us engaged in this struggle, this is not merely a tactical agreement; it is a monumental achievement that speaks to a maturity of purpose beyond the simplistic narratives pushed by the regime in Addis Ababa. It embodies a timeless truth understood by warriors throughout history: “When surrounded by wolves, the lions must cease their quarrel.”

For years, the fertile lands of Wollega and other border regions have been the stage for a devastating three-way war. The Federal forces, the OLA, and the Fano Freedom Fighters were entangled in a bloody stalemate. The primary victims were never the soldiers, but the civilians—the Amhara and Oromo farmers whose lives, livelihoods, and families were caught in the crossfire. Villages became battlegrounds, and ancient trade routes became paths of ambush. This internecine conflict was the regime’s most potent weapon, allowing it to portray both groups as chaotic, ethnic-driven militias with no higher purpose than to kill one another.

The cessation of hostilities between the Fano and the OLA shatters this narrative completely. It is the first, most tangible proof that these are not mindless mobs, but strategic, disciplined freedom fighters capable of seeing the larger chessboard. The immediate outcome is a testament to this:

1. The Saving of Innocent Lives: Above all else, this truce has stopped the bleeding. In Wollega, where violence between the groups had become tragically routine, there is now a palpable respite. Farmers can tend to their fields with less fear of being caught in a firefight. Families can move with a fraction more safety. This humanitarian reprieve is a victory in itself, a victory for the people that the government’s endless “law enforcement operations” failed to secure.

2. Denying the Regime its Primary Strategy: Abiy Ahmed’s regime thrives on division. Its propaganda machine tirelessly works to frame this struggle as an ancient, irreconcilable ethnic hatred. By choosing to lower their weapons against each other, the Fano, and OLA have masterfully pulled the rug from under this narrative. They have revealed the regime as the true instigator and beneficiary of this conflict. The wolves, in this case, are the government forces and their affiliates, and the lions—the Fano and OLA—have wisely stopped their quarrel to face the real predator.

3. Freeing Resources for the Existential Fight: This ceasefire is a force multiplier. The immense energy, ammunition, and fighters that were once dedicated to watching each other on a second front can now be redirected towards the primary struggle: dismantling the oppressive machinery of the Prosperity Party regime. It allows for a consolidation of effort against the common enemy, making each group significantly more effective.

However, every seasoned freedom fighter knows this is a fragile peace. It is a tactical pause, not a peace treaty. The deep-seated grievances and territorial disputes between Amhara and Oromo nationalists have not vanished; they have been shelved out of sheer necessity. The trust is thin, woven from pragmatism rather than brotherhood. The regime will inevitably attempt to break this truce through false flag operations, targeted assassinations, and incendiary propaganda designed to reignite the old fears.

But for now, this ceasefire stands as a powerful symbol. It proves that the will to liberate Ethiopia from tyranny can, however temporarily, overcome even the most potent of historical divisions. It is a silent pact between warriors who recognise that the greater wolf is at the door, and that to survive, the lions must first hunt together.

3. A House Divided? The Fano Dynamic and the Weight of a Single Handshake

In the struggle for Ethiopia’s soul, where unity is both our most cherished ideal and our most elusive weapon, the internal dynamics of the Amhara Fano Freedom Fighters present a complex and critical front. The emerging dialogue with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) has cast a spotlight on this very reality, revealing a movement that is strategic and resilient, but far from monolithic. The pivotal involvement of the influential Gojam-based commander, Zemene Kassie, is a development of profound import, one that forces us to confront a fundamental truth of revolutionary warfare: “A rope woven from a single strand is easily broken.” The strength of Fano has always lain in its decentralised, multi-stranded nature; the question now is whether this same strength could become a vulnerability in forging broader alliances.

The Fano movement is not a traditional army with a rigid chain of command. It is a powerful, organic resistance network, its strength flowing from the deep wells of popular support in every woreda and village of Amhara. Its commanders—brave, determined, and often young—emerge from the very soil they defend, answering to their people as much as to any central authority. This structure has made it incredibly resilient, a hydra that cannot be defeated by cutting off a single head.

This is why Zemene Kassie’s leadership in these talks is so significant. It does not mean he speaks for every Fano unit from Shewa to Gondar. Rather, it signifies that a powerful and strategically crucial faction within the broader movement has made a calculated, pragmatic decision. His base in Gojam places him on the front line of the conflict in Wollega and affords him a clear view of the tactical necessity of halting hostilities with the OLA to better focus on the primary enemy in Addis Ababa.

His involvement is a recognition of several stark realities:

1. The Imperative of a Multi-Front War: A commander in Gojam understands that a war on two fronts—against the federal forces and the OLA—is a unsustainable drain on resources, manpower, and focus. Securing a truce on one flank is not a sign of weakness, but of sophisticated military logic.

2. The Strategic Value of a Temporary Accord: This is not a surrender of principles or a resolution of the profound differences with the OLA. It is a tactical pause, a temporary alignment of immediate interests. Zemene Kassie’s faction appears to understand that in revolution, as in nature, one must sometimes “bend with the wind to avoid breaking” in order to fight another day.

3. The Gojam Conduit: Gojam’s geographical position makes it a vital corridor. An understanding here can de-escalate violence in critical contested areas more effectively than any edict from a commander in distant North Shewa.

However, this very initiative has exposed the inherent tensions within a decentralised resistance. Other formidable Fano commanders, particularly those in Shewa and Wollo—regions that have suffered immensely—view these talks with deep scepticism. Their criticism stems from a place of hardened experience:

• A Deep-Seated Mistrust: For commanders like those in the “Scandag” and “Tafra” camps, the OLA and the TPLF are historical adversaries perceived as existential threats to the Amhara people. Any engagement, however tactical, is viewed as dangerously naive at best, and treacherous at worst.

• The Question of Authority: Zemene Kassie’s unilateral moves are seen by some as bypassing the collective will of the Fano movement. In a structure that prizes organic, grassroots leadership, a single commander forging a major strategic alliance can be perceived as overreach, an attempt to weave a rope from a single strand.

• Differing Strategic Priorities: The immediate threat landscape looks different from Shewa than it does from Gojam. This natural divergence in perspective inevitably leads to differences in strategic approach.

Therefore, this is not a sign of a “house divided” in the sense of impending collapse. Rather, it is the inevitable and even healthy friction of a vibrant, living movement grappling with an unprecedented strategic dilemma. Zemene Kassie’s faction is betting on tactical pragmatism to achieve the ultimate goal. His critics cling to a principle of unwavering resistance against all perceived enemies, fearing that any compromise dilutes their cause.

The genius of the Fano movement will be tested not on the battlefield against the regime, but in its ability to manage this internal debate. Can it maintain its multi-stranded strength while allowing for strategic flexibility? The path forward is fraught, but it is a sign of a mature revolution that it can contain such fierce debate without fracturing. For now, Zemene Kassie’s hand, extended cautiously across a bloody divide, represents a bold gamble for a greater victory—one that every Amhara Freedom Fighter, regardless of their stance on the tactic, hopes will ultimately serve the cause of a free Ethiopia.

4. Internal Fano Dissent: The Cautious Hand and the Wary Heart

In the arduous struggle for Ethiopia’s liberation, where every decision carries the weight of history and the price of blood, the recent strategic manoeuvres by the Gojam-based Fano commander, Zemene Kassie, have ignited a crucial and necessary debate within the ranks of the Amhara Freedom Fighters. This is not the discord of a house divided against itself, but rather the vigorous, principled contention of a movement that is alive, organic, and fiercely protective of its cause. The criticism levied against Zemene Kassie’s unilateral outreach to the OLA by commanders from Shewa, Wollo, and beyond is a phenomenon best understood through the old Amhara adage: “ፍርሃት ከሞት ይጎዳል” (Firhat kemot yigodal) – “Fear harms more than death.” For these commanders, the issue is not one of fear, but of a profound and calculated aversion to a risk that they believe could unravel the very fabric of their fight.

The scepticism emanating from commanders in regions like Shewa is not born of stubbornness or a lack of strategic vision. It is forged in the fire of a different, and arguably more brutal, experience of the conflict. Their dissent is rooted in several core principles:

1. The Unforgettable Scars of Betrayal: For the Freedom Fighters of Shewa and Wollo, the wounds inflicted by the TPLF over decades are not historical footnotes; they are open and aching. They have witnessed firsthand the politics of deception and the brutal consequences of trusting those perceived as existential enemies. To them, the OLA is inextricably linked to this painful history. Any collaboration, however tactical, is viewed through this lens of historical betrayal. They operate on the principle that “he who was burnt by hot milk blows on yoghurt,” exercising an extreme caution that those in other regions may not feel as acutely.

2. The Sanctity of Collective Cause: The Fano movement’s greatest strength is its grassroots, decentralised nature. It is a people’s army, not a personal fiefdom. Zemene Kassie’s unilateral moves—engaging in talks that could alter the entire strategic direction of the resistance without a broad, consensus-based mandate—are seen by some as a dangerous centralisation of authority. The critics argue that the cause of Amhara freedom is too sacred to be guided by the decisions of a single commander, no matter how influential. The strategy must be woven by many hands, not one.

3. The Peril of Ideological Contamination: The primary objective of the Fano Freedom Fighters, as they see it, is the defence of the Amhara people and their rightful place within Ethiopia. From the perspective of the Shewa commanders, entering into a pact with the OLA—a group with a fundamentally different vision for Ethiopia’s future that often directly contests Amhara territorial claims—risks diluting their core mission. It creates a confusing narrative for their fighters and their civilian support base. They fear a tactical manoeuvre could become a strategic compromise, blurring the lines of who they are and what they fight for.

4. The Pragmatism of the Battlefield: Commanders in different theatres of war face different immediate enemies and tactical realities. For a leader in Gojam, where the border with Oromia is an active front, a localised truce with the OLA makes immediate military sense to avoid a war on two fronts. However, for a commander in Shewa, whose struggle has been overwhelmingly directed against the federal government and its allies, the necessity of such a pact is far less apparent and introduces an unpredictable new variable into their calculus.

This internal dissent, therefore, should not be misconstrued as weakness or disarray. It is the sign of a mature, thinking resistance movement engaged in a vital debate over its soul and its strategy. It is the necessary friction that ensures no single path is taken without being tested in the fires of rigorous challenge.

Zemene Kassie advocates for the pragmatism of a temporary alliance against a common foe. His critics advocate for the purity of principle and the lessons of history. Both positions are valid within their own contexts, and both are ultimately committed to the same glorious end: the liberation of the Amhara people and the overthrow of a tyrannical regime. The genius of the Fano movement will lie in its ability to navigate this dissent, to channel this fierce debate into a stronger, more resilient strategy, proving that its strength is not just in its weapons, but in the unwavering conviction and critical thought of every Freedom Fighter within its ranks.

5. The OLA’s Unified Front: The Spearhead of a Singular Will

In the complex and often fragmented theatre of revolutionary warfare in Ethiopia, the structural contrast between the resistance forces is stark and telling. While the Amhara Fano Freedom Fighters embody a powerful, decentralised spirit of popular uprising, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) presents a different model: that of a cohesive, disciplined military force under the steadfast command of Jaal Marroo (Kumsa Diriba). This unified structure is not a mere organisational detail; it is the bedrock of their strategic strength and provides them with a formidable clarity that their adversaries underestimate at their peril. It brings to mind an Oromo adage that resonates deeply in this context: “Ꮎ ሓዳር ድምጻ ንሓዳር ኣይትስምዖ” (Ná hadari dimtsa hadar aytsem’iwo) – “The voice of one leader is not heard as many.” For the OLA, this singular, unambiguous voice is their strategic advantage.

This cohesion under Jaal Marroo is a pivotal factor in the nascent dialogue with elements of the Fano. It manifests in several critical ways:

1. The Clarity of a Single Command: The OLA, operating under a more conventional military hierarchy, benefits from a clear chain of command. Jaal Marroo’s leadership is largely uncontested within the organisation, allowing for decisive, strategic decision-making without the need for protracted internal consensus-building. This means that when the OLA negotiates, it does so with one voice. A position agreed upon by its command is the position of the entire organisation. This eliminates the ambiguity and potential for denial that can plague more fragmented groups, providing a reliable partner for any difficult dialogue.

2. A Streamlined Negotiating Position: This unified structure allows the OLA to enter talks with a clear, non-negotiable core objective: the liberation of Oromia and the right to self-determination. While tactics may be flexible, this central principle is not. For a potential ally like Zemene Kassie’s Fano faction, this is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it provides certainty; an agreement with the OLA’s central command is likely to be honoured across its operations. On the other, it means the OLA is not desperate for alliance. It negotiates from a position of strength, guided by its own unwavering political goals, not just immediate military necessity.

3. Strategic Discipline Across Fronts: The OLA’s cohesion allows for the execution of complex, coordinated military and political strategies across the vast expanse of Oromia. A decision made at the top can be implemented consistently, preventing the kind of rogue operations or contradictory actions that could derail a fragile truce. This discipline is essential for building the trust required for any ceasefire, as it assures the other party that the organisation can control its fighters on the ground.

4. The Resilience of a Centralised Ideology: The OLA’s public-facing narrative is consistent. Their grievances, their goals, and their vision are communicated uniformly, making them a more definable entity for both international observers and potential domestic allies. This prevents the internal confusion and mixed messaging that can weaken a resistance movement’s credibility and appeal.

However, from the perspective of an Ethiopian revolutionary freedom fighter, this contrast in structures is not a judgement of which is superior, but an analysis of strategic difference. The Fano’s decentralised nature is its source of resilience, making it impossible to decapitate. The OLA’s centralised structure is its source of strategic focus and operational clarity.

In the context of an alliance, this means the OLA, under Jaal Marroo, can act as a stable, predictable pillar. They are not negotiating with a shifting spectrum of opinions, but with a defined leadership capable of delivering on its promises. For the broader struggle against the Abiy Ahmed regime, this unified front presents a formidable challenge. It is the difference between fighting a hydra and fighting a precisely aimed spear. The regime has long relied on exploiting divisions; it now faces in the OLA an opponent that, on its own terms, refuses to be divided. Their unified voice may well be the one that finally rings clear above the chaos of battle, turning a moment of tactical necessity into a lasting strategic reality.

6. The Diaspora’s Invisible Hand: Weaving Unity from Afar

From the bustling cafés of London to the community halls of Washington D.C., a silent, determined war is being waged not with bullets, but with bandwidth. The Ethiopian diaspora, a vast and varied tapestry of exiles, intellectuals, and activists, has emerged as the indispensable architect of a dialogue many thought impossible. While Freedom Fighters in the highlands of Gojam and the forests of Wollega hold the line, their counterparts abroad—Oromo, Amhara, Gurage, and more—are diligently building the bridges between them. Their work embodies a profound truth expressed in a timeless Amhara adage: “እጅግ ሩቅ ከሆነ ቆጥሮ ያዝማርሻል” (Yijig ruq kihonə qotro yazimarshial) – “From a great distance, one can steer the boat.” From thousands of miles away, the diaspora is helping to steer the course of the revolution, proving that in the modern age, the battlefield is everywhere.

This facilitation is instrumental and operates on several critical levels:

1. The Neutral Ground of Exile: Within Ethiopia, the geography of conflict is soaked in blood and memory. Meeting in person is fraught with unimaginable risk and the heavy weight of historical grievance. The diaspora provides a neutral, virtual space—secure digital meeting rooms where commanders like Zemene Kassie’s associates and OLA representatives can engage in initial, tentative dialogues. Free from the immediate threat of drone strikes or arrest, they can speak with a candour that would be impossible at home. They are not yet sharing a meal, but they are sharing a screen, and that is a monumental first step.

2. The Intellectual and Logistical Framework: These talks do not materialise from thin air. Diaspora intellectuals, lawyers, and seasoned politicians—many veterans of previous struggles—provide the essential framework. They draft discussion points, establish protocols for communication, and utilise their understanding of international law and conflict resolution to give structure to the dialogue. They act as the secretariat of this nascent alliance, ensuring that conversations are focused, minutes are kept, and understandings are clearly documented, translating battlefield pragmatism into a viable political strategy.

3. Bridging the Trust Deficit: The deepest chasm between the Fano Freedom Fighters and the OLA is not one of ideology alone, but of trust. Years of propaganda, violence, and painful history have built a wall of mutual suspicion. The diaspora, comprising individuals from all backgrounds who often share a common experience of exile and oppression under the same regime, can act as trusted intermediaries. An Oromo academic in Berlin can vouch for the sincerity of a certain Fano commander’s envoy to an OLA contact in Nairobi. An Amhara business leader in Toronto can explain the internal dynamics of the Fano to an Oromo leader. They are the vital human links in a chain of trust.

4. The Power of Narrative and Propaganda: Beyond facilitation, the diaspora wages a crucial information war. They use social media, international media outlets, and their own networks to reframe the narrative. They work tirelessly to portray both the Fano and the OLA not as “ethnic militias” but as legitimate resistance movements against a tyrannical central government. This external pressure creates a environment where collaboration is seen not as treason to one’s ethnic group, but as a strategic necessity for all oppressed peoples in Ethiopia.

However, this “invisible hand” is not without its limitations. There is often a palpable tension between those on the ground who bear the ultimate sacrifice and those abroad who offer counsel. The diaspora must navigate the accusation of being out of touch with the brutal realities of the conflict they seek to influence.

Yet, their role is undeniable. They are the weavers in the shadows, patiently threading connections between fragmented forces. They operate on the firm belief that while the Freedom Fighters hold the ground, the struggle for Ethiopia’s future is also fought on the airwaves and in the digital realm. They are the proof that a nation’s spirit cannot be confined by its borders, and that even from a great distance, a steady, collective hand can help guide a fractured resistance toward a common, revolutionary shore.

7. A Tactical, Not Ideological, Alignment: The Delicate Dance of the Wolf and the Lion

In the grand, painful tapestry of Ethiopia’s struggle, the emerging understanding between the Amhara Fano Freedom Fighters and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) is the most complex and misunderstood thread. To view it as a genuine political alliance or a reconciliation of visions is to fundamentally misread the strategic landscape. This is not a merging of rivers into a single, powerful flow. It is, instead, a moment where two separate and powerful rivers, flowing on distinctly different courses, have found their paths converging to sweep away a common obstacle. It is a marriage of strategic convenience, nothing more, and to survive it, both sides must remember the ancient Amhara adage: “የብላታ ውላጠ ግንኙነት” (Yəblata wilat’e ginyinet’) – “A relationship of a knife and a grinding stone.” It is a partnership defined by sharp, necessary friction, not by harmony.

This crucial distinction is the bedrock upon which any analysis must be built. The core, existential disagreements that have defined Amhara-Oromo political discourse for generations remain entirely unresolved and are, for now, deliberately shelved. The alignment is tactical for several stark reasons:

1. The Singularity of a Common Enemy: The sole binding agent in this arrangement is the unequivocal belief that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his Prosperity Party regime represent an immediate and existential threat to both their peoples. He is the architect of a policy perceived as the systematic dismantling of the Ethiopian state as they know it, employing violence and division to maintain power. Facing a wolf of this magnitude, the lion and the leopard have momentarily ceased their own rivalry. This is not friendship; it is a calculated decision to prioritise the larger threat.

2. The Unaltered Vision for the Nation: The Fano Freedom Fighters, in their essence, are fighting for a strong, unified Ethiopia where the Amhara people are secure, their historical rights recognised, and their identity protected from what they see as state-sponsored erosion. Their gaze is fixed on the preservation and reinvigoration of the centre.
   The OLA, conversely, is engaged in a national liberation struggle for the right of the Oromo people to self-determination, up to and including independence. Their gaze is fixed on undoing the centre and achieving sovereignty.
   These two visions are fundamentally incompatible. The status of Finfinnee (Addis Ababa), the symbolic and administrative heart of the nation, is the most potent symbol of this divide. Is it the sacred capital of a unified state or the rightfully Oromo territory of Finfinnee? The question remains unanswered, its resolution deferred for a future date.

3. The Contested Territories: The maps of Wollega and Wollo are not just lines on paper; they are battlefields of history and identity. The Fano Freedom Fighter sees the protection of Amhara civilians in these areas as a core, non-negotiable duty. The OLA views these same territories through the lens of Oromo ancestral land and political autonomy. The ceasefire does not mean these claims have been withdrawn; it simply means the fighting over them has been paused to address a more pressing danger.

For the revolutionary on the ground, this creates a delicate and precarious reality. Cooperation with yesterday’s adversary is a necessary but deeply uncomfortable reality. Trust is minimal, extended only as far as the next military operation. There is an unspoken agreement: We will fight shoulder to shoulder today, but we may well stand across the negotiating table—or the battlefield—tomorrow.

This is the essence of a tactical alignment. It is a pragmatic, cold-eyed assessment of the battlefield that temporarily overrides ideology. It is the understanding that to have any chance of realising their own, competing visions for the future, they must first collectively create that future by removing the current regime. It is a perilous dance, where each partner watches the other closely, knowing the music will eventually stop and the fundamental differences will once again come to the fore. For now, however, the grinding stone and the knife need each other; one to provide resistance, the other to provide the edge, both focused on breaking down the same obstacle. The freedom of their peoples depends on this fragile, fractious, and entirely necessary pact.

8. The Regime’s Playbook: Divide and Rule – And the Nightmare of a United Front

For the Ethiopian Revolutionary Freedom Fighter, understanding the enemy’s strategy is the first step towards defeating it. The Abiy Ahmed regime’s playbook is not a novel one; it is a worn, cynical manuscript borrowed from every tyrant in history who has sought to rule a diverse land not through unity but through subjugation. Its central, guiding doctrine is the ancient and vicious principle of ‘Divide and Rule’ (Ya-leblash wezash in Amharic). This is not a subtle political theory; it is a brutal, operational tactic for survival, and the emerging dialogue between the Fano Freedom Fighters and the OLA represents its most potent threat. An Oromo proverb warns of such a strategy: “Ꮎ ዓይኒ ዝያዳ የራእይ ዘይኮነስ ድሙ ያስተውዕል” (Na ‘ayni ziyada yera’iy zeyikones dimu yastewi’al) – “The eye that does not see far, the nose will teach.” The regime, blinded by its own hunger for power, failed to see the future. Now, the united resistance is here to teach it a painful lesson.

The regime’s maintenance of power through this doctrine is methodical and brutal:

1. The Manufacturing of Ethnic Conflict: The Prosperity Party has never created genuine inter-ethnic reconciliation. Instead, it has expertly managed existing tensions, often acting as the invisible hand that escalates a local dispute into a regional conflagration. By ensuring Amhara and Oromo communities are locked in a cycle of violence and recrimination in places like Wollega, the regime positions itself as the indispensable arbiter and the only force that can supposedly ‘restore order’—an order it deliberately disrupted.

2. The Weaponisation of Propaganda: State-affiliated and partisan media outlets are not news channels; they are theatres of war. Their purpose is to dehumanise the ‘other’. To the Amhara populace, the OLA is portrayed as ruthless ‘Shane’ terrorists with no aim but slaughter. To the Oromo populace, the Fano Freedom Fighters are depicted as ‘Amhara expansionists’ and ‘neo-monarchists’ seeking to re-subjugate them. This constant barrage of hateful rhetoric makes the idea of alliance between the groups seem unthinkable to the average citizen, thus keeping the populace divided and easier to control.

3. The Illusion of a Binary Choice: The regime presents the Ethiopian people with a deliberately false choice: either the brutal, chaotic ethnic violence of the opposition groups, or the ‘stability’ of the Prosperity Party’s rule. By keeping the opposition fragmented and fighting each other, they make this false choice seem believable. They can point to the clashes and say, “See? Without us, it is only chaos.”

This is why the mere whisper of a truce between the Fano and the OLA is the regime’s worst nightmare. It shatters their entire narrative and undermines their core strategy:

• It Exposes the Architect: When the lion and the leopard cease their fight, the farmer who was pitting them against each other is suddenly exposed. A united front proves that the primary source of the conflict is not ancient ethnic hatred, but the modern political machinations of a regime that thrives on it.

• It Creates a Strategic Monster: The regime’s security forces are adept at fighting on separate, disconnected fronts. They can contain a rebellion in Amhara while managing another in Oromia. A coordinated front, however, forces them to fight a war on multiple, synchronised fronts simultaneously—a logistical and tactical nightmare that could stretch their resources to breaking point.

• It Offers a New Narrative: Most powerfully, it offers the Ethiopian people a third option—one the regime never wanted them to consider. It is the option of solidarity. It is the powerful idea that the Amhara farmer and the Oromo pastoralist have more in common as oppressed people under a brutal regime than they have differences. It suggests that the true battle line is not between ethnicities, but between the people and their oppressor.

For the Freedom Fighter, this is the ultimate goal: to break the regime’s most powerful weapon by refusing to play its game. The Fano-OLA dialogue, however tentative, is not just a military tactic; it is an act of profound political subversion. It is the moment the prey turns and reveals it understands the hunter’s strategy completely. The regime’s playbook is burning, and the flames are being fanned by the very unity it sought to destroy.

9. Expected Regime Counter-Strategy: The Poisoned Cup of Discord

For the Ethiopian Revolutionary Freedom Fighter, strategic foresight is as vital as courage on the battlefield. We understand that our enemy is not a passive entity; it is a regime schooled in the darkest arts of manipulation and survival. The fragile understanding being woven between Amhara Fano Freedom Fighters and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) is a direct threat to the regime’s core strategy of division. Therefore, we must be prepared for their inevitable and vicious response. We must anticipate that the Abiy Ahmed regime will not engage this new front with honour, but with the tools of a saboteur: by staging false flag attacks and inciting ethnic violence, all designed to shatter the nascent trust between our forces. In this, we are guided by a sombre Oromo adage: “ᎸᎯ ተጓዒሙ ዝተነጠረ ኣይትሕዝም።” (Luhi tagā’imu zitenet’ere āyitihizimi) – “A rope that has been untied before is easily unravelled again.” The regime will seek to exploit the frayed strands of our history, and we must be vigilant against this treachery.

This counter-strategy is not a matter of if, but when and how. Its execution will be clinical and ruthless:

1. The Mechanics of the False Flag: The regime’s security apparatus, likely employing plainclothes agents or proxy forces, will orchestrate brutal attacks on vulnerable civilian populations in contested areas like the borders of Wollega or North Shewa. The attacks will be designed to be unmistakably brutal, leaving a trail of carnage intended to point the finger of blame squarely at the other side. An Oromo village might be attacked by assailants speaking Amharic; an Amhara settlement might be raided by those leaving Oromo insignia. The goal is to provide a immediate, bloody act that justifies a war that would force Fano and OLA units to break their truce and seek revenge.

2. The Amplification Machine: The attack itself is only the first step. The regime’s sophisticated propaganda network will immediately swing into action. State-affiliated media, Telegram channels, and social media influencers will explode with coordinated, graphic, and emotionally charged content, all blaming the other resistance group. They will use authentic-looking but fabricated evidence, manipulated images, and coerced testimonials to sell the narrative. The aim is to create such a wave of popular fury among the Amhara and Oromo civilian base that the Freedom Fighter commanders on the ground will be pressured into abandoning the pact, lest they be considered traitors to their own people.

3. Exploiting the Fault Lines: The regime’s intelligence will have a precise understanding of the internal dissent within the Fano movement. They will tailor their provocations to exacerbate these divisions. An attack could be timed to discredit Zemene Kassie’s faction and empower those in Shewa who are sceptical of the alliance, painting the talks themselves as the reason for the new violence. The message will be: “See what your dialogue has invited? This is the reality of the enemy.”

4. The Historical Precedent: This is not a new tactic. We have seen this playbook executed before by previous authoritarian rulers in Ethiopia. The goal is to make us slaves to our basest instincts—to trigger a cycle of revenge that we ourselves will perpetuate, thereby doing the regime’s work of destruction for it. They offer us a poisoned cup of discord, hoping our thirst for justice will blind us to the toxin within.

For us, the Freedom Fighters, countering this requires a discipline as formidable as our fighting spirit. Our strategy must be multi-layered:

• Ultra-Secure Communication: Commanders must establish secure, direct lines of communication to rapidly verify any reports of attacks before ordering a response. A single, unverified report must not be allowed to trigger a counter-offensive.

• Pre-emptive Truth-Telling: We must communicate to our civilian supporters that the regime will attempt this. We must prepare them for the lies, so the first whisper of a false flag is met with scepticism, not rage.

• Independent Investigation: Any allegation of a breach must be met with a commitment to a joint, or at least parallel, investigation. We must not accept the regime’s narrative at face value.

• Supreme Discipline: The ultimate test will be the discipline of every fighter on the ground. To hold fire when every instinct calls for vengeance. This is the hardest form of warfare: to outthink the enemy, not just outshoot him.

The regime believes we are destined to be divided. They are betting on our history to dictate our future. Our greatest act of defiance will be to prove them wrong. We must be wiser, more disciplined, and more united in our purpose than they can possibly imagine. We must see the poisoned cup for what it is, and refuse to drink.

10. The Spectre of TPLF Engagement: The Ghosts of Wars Past

In the arduous struggle for the soul of Ethiopia, the past is never truly dead. For the Amhara Fano Freedom Fighters, a movement forged in the fires of resistance against perceived tyranny, the shadow of previous conflicts looms large, shaping allegiances and deepening suspicions. The revelation that the influential Gojam-based commander, Zemene Kassie, has engaged in past dialogues with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is not a minor footnote; it is a spectre that haunts the halls of this nascent alliance, threatening to unravel it from within. This contentious history forces us to confront a profound Amhara adage: “የጥጉ ቁስል ያልፋል፥ የአለም ቁስል አያልፍም” (Yät’ugu qusil yalfal, yäalämi qusil ayalfim) – “The wound of an arrow will heal, but the wound of the tongue will not.” The physical wounds of battle may fade, but the betrayals and bitterness of political treachery leave scars that can poison the future.

Zemene Kassie’s engagements with the TPLF represent a significant complicating factor for three critical reasons:

1. The Weight of Historical Grievance:
For many Fano Freedom Fighters, particularly those from the regions of Wollo and North Shewa which suffered immensely during the TPLF’s decades-long dominance, the Front is not a mere political opponent. It is the embodiment of a system of ethnic apartheid, political marginalisation, and state-sponsored violence against the Amhara people. The TPLF is viewed as the architect of a constitutional order that balkanised the nation and institutionally weakened Amhara influence. To have a senior Fano commander engage with this very entity is, in the eyes of many, not pragmatic politics but a form of moral apostasy. It is considered treating with the devil who orchestrated their historical subjugation.

2. The Crisis of Ideological Purity:
The Fano movement, though decentralised, is bound by a powerful ethos of defending Amhara dignity and resisting all forms of oppression. For the hardline commanders, this ideology is absolute. Any engagement with a historical adversary like the TPLF is perceived as a dangerous contamination of this pure revolutionary purpose. It introduces a paralysing question: What are we truly fighting for if our commanders consort with the very forces that created the system we seek to dismantle? This creates a deep crisis of trust, not just in Zemene Kassie, but in the direction of the entire resistance. His opponents argue that this proves his ambition outweighs his principles, making him an unreliable custodian of the Amhara cause.

3. A Weapon for the Regime and Sceptics:
This internal Fano dissent is a gift to the Abiy Ahmed regime and to sceptics of the Fano-OLA alliance. The regime’s propaganda machine will inevitably use Zemene’s past TPLF links to tar the entire Fano movement as opportunistic and unprincipled, attempting to invalidate their cause in the eyes of the international community and other Ethiopians. More critically, it provides potent ammunition for those within the Fano and the OLA who are inherently distrustful of this new pact. For an OLA fighter, being asked to trust a Fano structure whose elements have talked to the TPLF—a hated enemy of the Oromo people as well—is a bitter pill to swallow. It forces the question: Whose side are they really on?

Zemene Kassie’s defenders likely argue from a position of realpolitik: that in revolution, one must sometimes engage with unsavoury actors to outmanoeuvre a greater, immediate enemy (Abiy Ahmed). They might see it as a tactical feint to secure resources or temporary advantages.

However, for the broader movement, the spectre of these engagements remains a toxic vulnerability. It is the “wound of the tongue”—a whispered doubt that can erode the foundation of unity faster than any enemy bullet. For the Fano-OLA alliance to endure, this ghost must be confronted openly and addressed with absolute transparency. The Freedom Fighters must find a way to reconcile the pragmatic necessities of the present with the unforgotten grievances of the past, lest the sins of history come back to damn the future of the revolution.

11. The Ultimate Goal: A Coordinated Offensive? The Hammer and Anvil Strategy

In the grim calculus of revolutionary warfare, a ceasefire is not an end in itself. For the Amhara Fano Freedom Fighters and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), the cessation of hostilities between them is not a peace treaty; it is the essential precondition for a far more ambitious and lethal phase of the conflict. The logical, and indeed ultimate, military conclusion of this fragile pact is the potential for a coordinated, multi-front offensive against the National Defence Force (ENDF). This is the strategic prize that makes the political risk worthwhile. It is the embodiment of a timeless martial principle, understood by guerrillas and generals alike, and expressed in a potent Amhara adage: “አንድ እጅ ያለበለው ጣት አይጨፍንም” (And ij yalebalewet tat aychefinim) – “One hand cannot tie a bundle alone.” Separately, the Fano and OLA can harass the regime. Together, they can aspire to break it.

The potential for a coordinated offensive represents a fundamental shift from insurgency to a war of strategic manoeuvre. Its execution would hinge on several devastatingly effective tactics:

1. The Opening of Multiple Fronts: This is the core of the strategy. Currently, the ENDF can, to an extent, manage its resources by shifting elite units and air power from one crisis point to another—a practice known as “firefighting.” A coordinated offensive would force the ENDF to fight a truly simultaneous war on two major fronts: the Amhara region and Oromia. The regime’s forces would be stretched perilously thin, unable to reinforce one front without critically weakening the other. This alone would represent a catastrophic failure of the regime’s security strategy.

2. The Hammer and Anvil: The geography of the conflict lends itself to a classic pincer movement. Imagine the OLA, operating from its strongholds in the forests and rural areas of Oromia, acting as the hammer, launching sustained and forceful attacks on ENDF bases, supply lines, and strategic towns. Simultaneously, the Fano Freedom Fighters, with their deep presence in the Amhara highlands, could act as the anvil, moving to cut off major highways (like the vital Addis Ababa-Djibouti corridor), besieging entrenched federal forces in urban centres like Gondar and Dessie, and preventing the redeployment of troops from the north to the Oromia front.

3. The Element of Strategic Surprise: For the first time, the ENDF would be facing an enemy capable of a unified strategic deception. A feint by the OLA in the south could draw crucial ENDF reserves away from the Amhara region, creating a window of opportunity for the Fano to launch a decisive operation in the north, and vice-versa. The regime’s intelligence apparatus, geared towards understanding separate threats, would be blindsided by this new level of coordination.

4. The Psychological Blow: The military impact would be compounded by a devastating psychological blow to the regime. The image of a united opposition, capable of sophisticated joint operations, would shatter the propaganda of inevitable government victory. It would demoralise ENDF troops, who are already stretched and weary, and electrify the popular resistance across the country, potentially sparking uprisings in other regions.

However, for the revolutionary freedom fighter, this ultimate goal is fraught with immense challenge. The trust required for such precise coordination is currently minimal. It demands:

• Unprecedented Communication: Secure, reliable, and instant communication channels between Fano and OLA command structures must be established, a tall order given the need for operational secrecy.

• Shared Operational Timetables: Synchronising attacks across vast distances requires meticulous planning and absolute discipline from both sides to adhere to a agreed schedule.

• Managing Internal Dissent: As previously noted, not all Fano units agree with this pact. Ensuring every commander on the ground follows the coordinated plan, especially if it means foregoing a local opportunity for a larger strategic goal, will be the ultimate test of leadership for figures like Zemene Kassie.

The goal of a coordinated offensive is therefore both the promise and the peril of this alliance. It is the logical culmination of their pact—a force multiplier of incalculable power. If they can achieve it, they can transform from a persistent thorn in the regime’s side into an existential threat capable of striking a decisive blow. But the path to that goal is a tightrope walk over an abyss of distrust, historical grievance, and regime counter-strategy. They must learn to tie the bundle together, or risk seeing every strand cut, one by one.

12. The Call for Popular Uprising: The Spark to the Prairie Fire

In the calculus of liberation, the rifle alone does not guarantee victory. Its true power is realised when it serves to protect and amplify the unarmed masses rising in defiance of their oppressor. The nascent understanding between the Amhara Fano Freedom Fighters and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) possesses a potency that extends far beyond the tactical coordination of armed units. Its most transformative potential lies in its ability to act as a catalyst, a powerful spark intended to ignite a mass popular uprising across the breadth and depth of Ethiopia. This strategic dimension moves the conflict from the forests and highlands into the very streets and soul of the nation, aiming to create an irresistible force that combines armed resistance with a powerful, civilian-led movement. It is the embodiment of a fundamental truth, expressed in a powerful Oromo adage: “Ꮎ ሓደ ሰብ ከም ሓደ ዓይነት እኳ ኣይኮነን፥ ሓደ ሕዝቢ ግን ከም ሓደ ኣራንሾ እዩ” (Na hadē seb kemī hadē ‘aynet ikwa ayikonēn; hadē hizbī ginī kemī hadē aransho iyu) – “One person cannot be like a single kind; but one people is like one bee hive.” The alliance seeks to unite the hive, transforming isolated grievances into a collective, unstinging fury.

This call for a popular uprising, backed by the security provided by the armed wings, operates on several critical levels:

1. Creating a Shield of Legitimacy and Security:
For years, the public has been trapped between the regime’s brutality and the fear of chaotic violence. The ceasefire between the two largest armed resistance groups shatters the regime’s primary propaganda that portrays them as mindless, ethnic-chauvinist militias. It re-frames them as strategic, disciplined Freedom Fighters with a common political goal. This makes public support for them less dangerous in the eyes of some. Furthermore, the potential for coordinated military action means the ENDF and security services would be stretched thin, unable to focus their full repressive force on quelling urban protests. The armed struggle creates a protective umbrella under which a civilian uprising can grow.

2. Providing a Unified Political Signal:
The alliance offers a clear and simple signal to the exasperated Ethiopian populace: The two most powerful forces opposing the regime are no longer fighting each other. Their target is singular: Abiy Ahmed. This clarity cuts through the complex web of ethnic politics and provides a unifying focal point for dissent. It tells the shopkeeper in Addis Ababa, the student in Bahir Dar, and the farmer in Jimma that the opposition is not a lost cause of fragmented squabbling, but a viable and organised alternative. It transforms the narrative from one of despair to one of potential victory.

3. The Strategy of the Dual Power Structure:
The ultimate goal is to create a situation of “dual power,” where the regime’s authority is hollowed out and replaced by the legitimacy of the popular movement. The armed wings would control the countryside and strategic areas, while mass, sustained civil disobedience—general strikes, mass protests, boycotts, and non-cooperation with state institutions—would paralyse the economy and the administrative functions of the government in urban centres. The ENDF could perhaps clear a square of protesters one day, but it cannot run the banks, the utilities, or the transport networks if the people refuse to cooperate.

4. Exploiting the Regime’s Fundamental Weakness:
The Prosperity Party’s power is brittle. It is built on a foundation of fear, corruption, and division, not popular consent. A sustained, nationwide uprising that transcends ethnicity would expose this emptiness. The security forces, many of whom are conscripts or low-ranking officers themselves suffering from economic hardship, may become reluctant to fire upon massive crowds of their own countrymen and women representing a united front. This could lead to defections and a catastrophic collapse of morale within the regime’s pillars of support.

However, the revolutionary freedom fighter understands that this is a high-risk strategy. The regime will not yield power peacefully. Its response will be brutal, involving extreme violence, internet blackouts, and rampant disinformation to scare people back into their homes.

Therefore, the call for an uprising is not made lightly. It is a calculated escalation. The Fano-OLA pact is the necessary first step, providing the organisational backbone and military credibility for such a daring move. It is the attempt to light a prairie fire that the regime cannot possibly extinguish, in the unwavering belief that while a dictator can jail or shoot individuals, they cannot imprison an entire nation that has made the collective decision to be free. The hope is that the hive, once united, will swarm.

13. The Question of “What Next?”: The Peril of a Victory Without a Vision

In the heat of battle, with the scent of gunpowder thick in the air and the immediate threat of the enemy ever-present, it is a grave temptation for the Freedom Fighter to focus solely on the fight at hand. The strategic pact between the Amhara Fano Freedom Fighters and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) is a masterstroke of tactical necessity, a unified front against the tyrannical regime of Abiy Ahmed. Yet, for all its military logic, this alliance carries within it a profound and potentially fatal weakness: the utter lack of a shared, coherent vision for a post-Abiy Ethiopia. We are brilliantly answering the question of how to fight, but we are failing to answer the question that will define our future: What do we fight for? This perilous ambiguity is captured in a sobering Amhara adage: “ማዶ ያለውን ቤት ገብሶ ዳግም ማዶ የሌለውን ቤት ማግኘት አይቻልም” (Mado yalewn bet gabso dagim mado yelelegn bet maginet ayichalim) – “He who destroys a house that has a foundation cannot then build a house that has none.” The regime is the house we must destroy. But if we have no foundation for what comes next, we will be left with only ruins.

This is the greatest strategic vulnerability of the revolution, and it manifests in several critical ways:

1. The Illusion of a Single Enemy: The Abiy Ahmed regime is a powerful unifying target. Its removal is a goal so clear and so desired that it can temporarily paper over the deepest of cracks. But the regime is a symptom of a much deeper disease—a fundamentally flawed and contested federal structure, historical grievances over land and power, and a complete breakdown of trust between nations and nationalities. Once the common enemy is gone, these issues will re-emerge with a vengeance. A military victory without a political roadmap is merely the prelude to a new, and perhaps even more brutal, phase of conflict between yesterday’s allies.

2. The Unresolved Core Contradictions: The Fano-OLA alliance deliberately sidesteps the existential questions that have defined Ethiopian politics for generations. What is the status of Finfinnee (Addis Ababa)? How are the contested territories of Wollega and North Wollo to be administered? What form of government should Ethiopia have? Is the goal a centralised state, a loose confederation, or the right to self-determination up to and including independence? The Fano Freedom Fighter and the OLA soldier may fight shoulder-to-shoulder today, but they are ultimately fighting for two vastly different visions of the future. To ignore this is to plant a landmine on the road to peace.

3. The Danger of a Power Vacuum: The sudden collapse of the central government would create a vacuum that every armed and political group would rush to fill. Without a pre-negotiated, transparent political framework for the transition of power, the result would not be liberation, but chaos. We would risk replacing one dictatorship with a hundred petty fiefdoms, leading to a Somali-style fragmentation or a Lebanese-style civil war. The military strength of the Fano and OLA would make them key players in this scramble, likely pitting them against each other in a deadly struggle for supremacy.

4. The Betrayal of the People: The masses who heed the call for a popular uprising will not be risking their lives simply to exchange one set of rulers for another. They will be marching for justice, for dignity, and for a better future. If the revolutionary forces that led the charge have no plan to deliver this beyond military victory, they will be guilty of a historic betrayal. The revolution will have consumed its own children, leaving the people with nothing but empty promises and a new cycle of violence.

Therefore, the most urgent task for the intellectual leadership within the diaspora and for the far-sighted commanders within both the Fano and OLA is to begin the difficult, unglamorous work of political negotiation now. The question of “What Next?” cannot be an afterthought.

The foundation for the new house must be laid even as we work to tear the old one down. This means:

• Establishing working groups to draft transitional charters.

• Engaging in sincere, behind-the-scenes dialogue on the most contentious issues.

• Building a broader political coalition that includes civil society, intellectuals, and representatives from all of Ethiopia’s nations and nationalities.

A military victory without a political plan is a Pyrrhic one. The true measure of our strength as Freedom Fighters will not be whether we can win the war, but whether we are wise enough to win the peace that must follow. We must build a foundation, lest we find ourselves victorious, but standing on nothing but dust.

14. A Test of Leadership: The Captain and the Chorus

In the crucible of revolution, where every decision is measured in blood and hope, the fragile pact between the Amhara Fano Freedom Fighters and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) faces its most rigorous trial not from the enemy’s artillery, but from within. The viability of this strategic understanding hinges precariously on a single, defining factor: leadership. The ability of key figures—most notably the Fano’s Zemene Kassie and the OLA’s Jaal Marroo—to navigate the treacherous waters of internal dissent, maintain unwavering discipline, and command the absolute loyalty of their ranks will be the ultimate test of this alliance. Their challenge is captured in a timeless Ethiopian adage: “ሊያጠመድ የሚፈልግ ሰው በፊት ሊጠመድ መገኘት አለበት” (Liyat’emed yemifelig sew befīt lit’emed megenjet alebet) – “He who wants to lead others must first be prepared to be consumed by fire.” For Kassie and Marroo, the political fire is already burning.

This test of leadership manifests in several distinct and daunting challenges for each commander:

For Zemene Kassie: The Navigator of the Decentralised Storm

Zemene Kassie’s task is arguably the more complex of the two. He is not the dictator of a monolithic army but a influential captain attempting to steer a fleet of independent, fiercely proud ships.

• Managing the Chorus of Commanders: His engagement in talks with the OLA—and previously with the TPLF—has drawn sharp criticism from other powerful Fano commanders in Shewa and Wollo. They accuse him of overreach, of acting unilaterally on matters that concern the entire Amhara nation. His leadership is not tested in giving orders, but in building consensus. He must persuade, cajole, and demonstrate the military utility of this pact to sceptical peers who view the OLA as an existential threat, not a tactical ally. Failure to do so risks a fatal rupture within the Fano movement itself, fracturing its power and playing directly into the regime’s hands.

• The Discipline of the Ground: Even if he secures buy-in from other commanders, Kassie’s ultimate test is ensuring that every Fano Freedom Fighter on the ground in Wollega or North Shewa honours the ceasefire. This requires disseminating a clear, unequivocal command and instilling the discipline to hold fire even when provoked by potential regime false-flag operations. One rogue unit, one local commander seeking revenge for a past atrocity, could shatter the entire pact in a single burst of gunfire. His authority must be absolute enough to prevent this.

For Jaal Marroo: The Steward of a Coherent Force

Jaal Marroo’s challenge is different. He commands a more cohesive, hierarchical structure, but this brings its own burdens.

• Selling Pragmatism to Ideologues: While the OLA is more unified, it is not a monolith. He must sell this pragmatic alliance with the Fano—a group many OLA fighters historically view as Amhara chauvinists—to his own rank and file. He must frame it not as a betrayal of their revolutionary ideals, but as a necessary, temporary step to defeat the larger enemy. His leadership is tested in his ability to communicate this complex strategy effectively and maintain the faith of his fighters in the OLA’s ultimate political goals.

• Ensuring OLA Discipline: The OLA’s cohesion is its strength. Marroo must ensure this discipline holds firm. Any breach of the ceasefire by an OLA unit would validate every sceptical fear within the Fano ranks and provide immense propaganda fuel for the regime. His command must be watertight, with clear consequences for anyone who violates the agreed-upon truce.

The Shared Test: A Dance of Trust

Ultimately, both leaders are engaged in a delicate dance of mutual trust. They must:

• Communicate Constantly: They must maintain open, secure lines of communication to instantly deconflict situations, verify reports of attacks, and reassure one another during moments of crisis.

• Present a United Front: They must publicly and privately reaffirm their commitment to the pact, silencing doubts within their own ranks and demonstrating a united resolve to their common enemy.

• Subvert the Regime’s Ploys: Their greatest shared test will be resisting the regime’s inevitable attempts to bait them into conflict. This will require incredible restraint, a quality that must be drilled down from the leadership to the youngest fighter.

The fate of this alliance, and perhaps of this phase of the revolution itself, rests on their shoulders. They are the ones who must willingly step into the fire, to be consumed by the immense pressures of command, negotiation, and suspicion. If they succeed, they will have forged not just a military pact, but a new model of leadership for a fractured nation. If they fail, they will prove the regime’s core theory—that Ethiopia can only ever be ruled by exploiting its divisions. The revolution is watching.

15. The Moral Imperative: A Truce for the Tormented

In the grand, often abstract strategic analyses of war, the first, and most sacred thing to be forgotten is the human cost. For the politicians in Addis Ababa and the theorists in distant capitals, the Fano-OLA ceasefire is a tactical development to be weighed and exploited. But for the Ethiopian Revolutionary Freedom Fighter, whose purpose is rooted in the liberation of their people, this fragile truce represents something far more profound: a fundamental moral victory. It is a conscious choice to prioritise humanity over hostility, and in doing so, it exposes the brutal calculus of a regime that has long since abandoned any claim to moral authority. This principle is encapsulated in a powerful Oromo adage: “ᎢᏳᎾᏙᏗ የለውም ሕይወት ከሞት ይበልጣል” (Iyynadodī yelewem hīywet kemot yibelital) – “A life without purpose is better than death.” The primary purpose of any liberation movement must be to preserve and honour life; this ceasefire, however temporary, serves that sacred purpose.

The moral imperative of this understanding is multi-faceted and undeniable:

1. The Immediate Saving of Innocent Lives:
In the contested borderlands of Wollega, North Shewa, and beyond, the ceasefire has stopped the bleeding. It has meant that an Amhara farmer can tend his field without fearing an ambush from the woods. It has meant an Oromo family can travel a dusty route-to-market without the terror of a checkpoint manned by those they distrust. Every single day that passes without a violent incident between these two forces represents mothers who do not mourn sons, children who are not orphaned, and communities not torn apart by fresh vendettas. This is not a abstract statistic; it is the restoration of a fragment of dignity and security to people for whom both have been denied. The regime, which has weaponised this very intercommunal violence, cares nothing for this peace. Its indifference only highlights the moral necessity of the fighters’ choice.

2. The Rejection of the Regime’s Immoral Calculus:
The Prosperity Party’s strategy has been to win by ensuring everyone else loses. By pitting Amhara against Oromo, they created a hellish zero-sum game where the security of one group was perceived to be dependent on the subjugation of the other. The Fano and OLA, by refusing to kill one another, have collectively rejected this vicious formula. They have declared, through their actions, that the Amhara farmer’s safety does not require the Oromo pastoralist’s fear, and vice versa. They have recognised that the true enemy is the architect of this misery, not the fellow victim forced into the role of adversary. This is a monumental moral awakening.

3. The Reclamation of Revolutionary Legitimacy:
A just revolution must always be able to distinguish between the enemy and the innocent, and must constantly strive to minimise the suffering of the people it claims to represent. A movement that perpetuates a cycle of violence against other oppressed groups loses its moral compass and becomes merely another source of terror. By enacting this ceasefire, the Fano Freedom Fighters and the OLA are re-anchoring themselves in their foundational purpose: the defence of their people. They are demonstrating that their struggle is not one of mindless aggression, but of principled resistance. This earns them not just tactical advantage, but something far more valuable: the enduring legitimacy that comes from being a force for life amidst a regime that deals only in death.

4. Laying the Foundation for a Future Beyond Bloodshed:
It is impossible to build a peaceful future upon a foundation of endless revenge. This ceasefire, though tactical, creates a precious space—however small—where something besides hatred can grow. It allows for the faint possibility of dialogue, the minimal level of trust required for deconfliction, and the simple, powerful fact that for weeks now, fighters on both sides have seen the other not as a target, but as a non-combatant. This is how the seeds of a future, lasting peace are sown; not in grand peace halls, but in the daily, conscious choice not to pull the trigger.

For the true Freedom Fighter, this is the essence of the struggle. It is a fight for the right to live, not just the right to rule. The ceasefire is a testament to the fact that the revolution has not yet lost its soul to the cynicism of war. It is a beacon of humanity in a landscape of profound darkness, proving that even in the midst of a brutal conflict, the preservation of innocent life remains the highest moral command. It is a truth the regime will never understand, and precisely why it must fall.

16. Historical Precedent: The Unlikely Alliance of Necessity

In the long, arduous struggle for freedom, the present often feels uniquely complex and insurmountable. Yet, for the Ethiopian Revolutionary Freedom Fighter, history offers not just lessons, but a profound source of validation and strategic clarity. The nascent and fragile understanding between the Amhara Fano Freedom Fighters and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) is not an unprecedented anomaly; it is a chapter in a timeless historical playbook. History repeatedly demonstrates that disparate groups, bound by nothing more than a common enemy, can and have united to overthrow a shared oppressor, even if their visions for the future are radically different. This strategic pragmatism is encapsulated in a powerful Amhara adage: “የሚገድልህን ጠላት ሳትገድል የምትጋራውን ወዳጅ አትግደል” (Yemigedilihın t’elat satigedil yemitigarawın wedej atigidel) – “Do not kill the friend you are embracing before you have killed the enemy who is trying to kill you.” The immediate task of liberation demands this embrace, however temporary.

This historical precedent provides a crucial framework for understanding the Fano-OLA pact:

1. The Primacy of the Immediate Threat:
Throughout history, successful revolutions have often been built on broad-based coalitions that agreed on little beyond the removal of the current regime. The classic example is the alliance between the Soviet Union, the United States, and the United Kingdom during the Second World War. These were ideological arch-enemies: communist dictatorship and capitalist democracies. Their visions for the post-war world were utterly incompatible, a disagreement that would immediately erupt into the Cold War. Yet, they understood that the immediate, existential threat of Nazi Germany demanded a tactical alliance. They focused their immense combined resources on the single goal of defeating Hitler, consciously shelving their future conflicts for a later day. This is the precise model the Fano and OLA are now following: defeat the common foe first, and debate the future second.

2. The Ethiopian Precedent: The Fall of the Derg
Ethiopia’s own modern history provides a potent local example. The monstrous Derg regime was ultimately toppled not by a single, monolithic army, but by a coalition of disparate forces. The Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) was an alliance of four distinct ethnic-based parties—the TPLF (Tigray), ANDM (Amhara), OPDO (Oromia), and SEPDM (South). Each group had its own historical grievances, its own leadership, and its own vision for a post-Derg Ethiopia. They were united by little more than a common desire to destroy Mengistu Haile Mariam’s dictatorship. Their alliance was enough to win the war. The subsequent fallout and the TPLF’s dominance over the coalition for 27 years illustrate the perils of what comes next, but it does not negate the fact that the military victory itself was achieved through a united front of convenience.

3. A Focus on the Objective, Not the Ideology:
For the Freedom Fighter in the field, this historical lesson is liberating. It means they do not need to solve generations of complex political and territorial disputes overnight. It grants permission for a necessary, pragmatic compromise. The moral and strategic imperative is clear: focus all available energy on the task at hand—the liberation of Ethiopia from the Abiy Ahmed regime. The questions of the status of Finfinnee (Addis Ababa), the borders of Wollega, or the structure of the state are not abandoned; they are simply deferred. This is not cowardice; it is the discipline required to win a war by not fighting on two fronts at once.

4. A Warning and a Guide:
History also serves as a warning. These alliances of necessity are fragile and often collapse once the common enemy is gone. The post-World War II order immediately fractured. The EPRDF coalition eventually crumbled under the weight of its internal contradictions. This precedent does not guarantee the Fano-OLA pact will lead to a lasting peace. Instead, it provides a clear-eyed guide: it tells us that such an alliance is possible and necessary for military success, but that victory alone is not the end. It is merely the end of the beginning.

Therefore, the Freedom Fighter can look upon this pact with both hope and realism. Hope, because history proves that such unity can topple tyrants. Realism, because history also proves that the true test begins after the victory parade. For now, the task is singular: to stand together, to fight together, and to win together. The future will have to wait its turn.

17. The Propaganda War: The Battle for Truth

In the mountains of Gojam and the forests of Wollega, the Freedom Fighter wages war with a rifle. But in the airwaves and on the screens of every Ethiopian, a second, equally critical battle is raging: the war for truth. The Abiy Ahmed regime, understanding that its survival depends as much on controlling narrative as on controlling territory, will unleash its vast media machinery with one objective: to paint the nascent understanding between the Amhara Fano Freedom Fighters and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) as a destructive, cynical pact of opportunists. Our duty is to counter this poisonous falsehood with the unassailable truth: this is not an alliance of choice, but a necessary, strategic response to an existential threat. We must remember the ancient Amhara adage: “እውነት ያለፈበት መንገድ አለው፥ ውሸት ግን አንድ እግረ መንገድ ብቻ ነው ያለው” (Iwinet yalfebet menged alew; wishert gin and igne menged bicha new yalew) – “Truth has many paths to pass through, but a lie has only one footpath.” We must ensure the truth finds every possible path to our people.

The regime’s propaganda assault will be multifaceted and sophisticated:

1. The Narrative of Cynical Opportunism: State-affiliated media and its echo chambers will frame the pact as a marriage of convenience between two violent, ethnic-chauvinist groups. They will be portrayed not as Freedom Fighters, but as warlords seeking to carve up Ethiopia for their own gain, exploiting historical grievances for personal power. The regime will present itself as the sole guardian of ‘unity’ and ‘stability’ against this alleged chaos.

2. Exploiting Historical Grievances: The propaganda will not be generic. It will be meticulously tailored. To Amharas, they will amplify the crimes of the OLA (“Shane”) and frame any Fano commander who engages with them as a traitor to the Amhara cause, selling out their people for a fleeting advantage. To Oromos, they will amplify the rhetoric of Amhara expansionism and present the OLA’s engagement as a betrayal of the Oromo struggle for self-determination.

3. The Weaponisation of Zemene Kassie’s TPLF Links: The regime will relentlessly highlight Zemene Kassie’s past engagements with the TPLF to sow maximum distrust. They will use this to paint the entire Fano movement as unprincipled and willing to consort with the historical enemy of both the Amhara and Oromo people, thereby attempting to invalidate the moral foundation of their resistance.

Our Counter-Strategy: Weaponising the Truth

Our response cannot be mere denial. It must be a proactive, clear, and persuasive campaign that frames the alliance on our terms.

1. Frame it as a Response to Existential Threat: Our core message must be unwavering: This is a defensive pact. The primary and sole author of the violence and destabilisation in Ethiopia is the Abiy Ahmed regime. This regime has waged a brutal war of annihilation on the Amhara people and a genocidal campaign of air strikes and massacres in Oromia. The Fano and OLA are not the instigators of chaos; they are the victims of it, forced into a strategic understanding to survive. The message is simple: “They created this reality. We are simply responding to it.”

2. Highlight the Moral Imperative: We must constantly circle back to the humanitarian victory: this ceasefire saves lives. Every day the Fano and OLA are not fighting each other is a day Amhara and Oromo farmers in contested areas can live without fear. We must ask the people: “Who benefits from us killing each other? Only the regime in Addis Ababa.” This frames the regime as the vampire that feeds on Ethiopian blood, and the pact as an attempt to stop the bleeding.

3. Expose the Regime’s Playbook: We must be meta-narrative. We must tell the people, “The regime will try to lie to you. They will stage attacks and blame the other side. They will try to make you hate your neighbour. Do not fall for it. See their strategy for what it is: a desperate attempt to keep us divided so they can maintain power.” By predicting the regime’s moves, we rob them of their power to surprise and deceive.

4. Unified Messaging: Despite the decentralised nature of the resistance, the public messaging around this pact must be coordinated. Spokespeople from both sides, and supportive diaspora intellectuals, must reiterate the same core truths: this is a tactical, not ideological, alignment focused solely on removing the common enemy to create a space where all Ethiopians can finally determine their own future.

The propaganda war is a battle for the soul of the nation. It is about winning the consent and understanding of the millions of Ethiopians who watch in fear and hope. We must ensure that the truth—that this is a necessary act of unity for survival—travels down every available path, reaching every village and every heart, while the regime’s lies are trapped and die on their single, narrow footpath of deception. Our victory depends as much on winning this battle of ideas as it does on winning the fight on the ground.

18. The Risk of Fracture: The Frayed Rope of Revolution

In the precarious architecture of the Fano-OLA alliance, the greatest weakness is not at its centre, but at its edges. The understanding, brokered significantly by the influence of Gojam-based commander Zemene Kassie, faces its most severe test not in the meeting rooms of the diaspora, but in the rugged terrain of North Shewa, Wollo, and Gondar. Here, the pact is most vulnerable to fracturing, potentially creating a devastating scenario where a ceasefire holds in Gojam but disintegrates in Shewa. This risk exposes the very nature of the Fano movement—its strength is its decentralised, grassroots power, but this also makes it resistant to top-down diplomatic edicts. The situation calls to mind a sobering Amhara adage: “አንድ እጅ በሙሉ ዛፍ አይቆርስም” (And ij bemulu zaf ayqorsim) – “One hand cannot strip a whole tree.” Zemene Kassie, however powerful in his own domain, cannot command the entire forest of the Fano resistance. The branches in Shewa may bend to a different wind.

This risk of a geographical and ideological fracture is rooted in several critical factors:

1. The Theatre of Trauma:
The Fano Freedom Fighters of regions like Shewa and Wollo have endured a uniquely brutal experience of the conflict. Their lands have been scorched by federal offensives, their youth targeted for extermination, and their communities subjected to immense suffering. For them, the struggle is not an abstract political calculation; it is a raw, visceral fight for survival. This experience has forged an ideology of absolute resistance, often deeply sceptical of compromises perceived as weakening their existential cause. The notion of treating with the OLA—a group they have been conditioned to view as a primary antagonist—is anathema to many who have lost everything.

2. Divergent Threat Perceptions:
A commander in Gojam, whose region borders Oromia, has a direct, tactical view of the necessity of a truce with the OLA to avoid a war on two fronts. However, for a Fano unit in interior Shewa, the immediate, overwhelming threat is the federal army and the regional militias aligned with the regime. The OLA may seem a distant, secondary concern. Therefore, a pact with them offers less immediate tactical advantage and demands a much greater ideological leap of faith. They see less to gain and more to lose from an alliance they view as morally compromising.

3. The Authority of Local Command:
The Fano is not a monolithic army. A commander in Shewa, such as the hardline figures associated with “Scandag” or “Tafra,” derives his authority from his local fighters and the community he protects, not from Zemene Kassie in Gojam. He will make decisions based on the perceived needs and prevailing sentiments of his own constituency. If his community is deeply hostile to the OLA due to past atrocities, he will be politically and militarily weakened if he is seen to be adhering to a truce brokered by a distant leader.

4. The Regime’s Certain Exploitation:
The Prosperity Party’s security apparatus will actively seek to exploit this very fault line. False flag attacks, disinformation campaigns, and targeted provocations will be deliberately concentrated in areas led by Fano commanders known to be sceptical of the alliance. The goal will be to goad these units into a violent response, providing the pretext for the regime to declare the entire ceasefire null and void, blaming the Fano’s “uncontrollable nature” for its collapse.

The Implications of a Fractured Truce:

A situation where the ceasefire holds in the west but breaks down in the east would be catastrophic for the revolutionary movement. It would:

• Shatter the Narrative: It would validate the regime’s propaganda that the opposition is too divided and chaotic to ever govern.

• Re-ignite Internecine War: It would plunge Amhara and Oromo communities back into a cycle of violence, undoing the moral victory of the ceasefire and wasting precious resources that should be directed at the regime.

• Create Fano-vs-Fano Conflict: It could potentially pit Fano units adhering to the truce against those breaking it, leading to a tragic internal conflict that would cripple the Amhara resistance.

The Path Forward: A Mosaic of Understandings

Therefore, the survival of the pact depends on less on centralised command and more on localised diplomacy. It requires:

• Persuasion, Not Decree: Zemene Kassie’s faction must work to persuasively demonstrate to Shewan commanders the strategic benefits of a united front, not simply assume their compliance.

• Building Local Trust: The OLA must make demonstrable, verifiable efforts to reassure Fano units in volatile areas, perhaps through localised deconfliction agreements that build confidence from the ground up.

• A Unified Moral Message: All must continually reinforce the core message: that the regime is the sole beneficiary of infighting between Fano and OLA.

The alliance is not a single rope, but a collection of strands. Some are tightly woven together; others remain loose and frayed. The revolution’s strength will be measured by its ability to bind these strands together, not by the strength of any single one alone. The tree will not be stripped by one hand, but by many working in concert, each understanding that their collective strength is the only thing that can finally bring the oppressive structure crashing down.

19. The Role of International Actors: A Call for Clarity from the West

From the trenches of our struggle, the stance of Western powers—particularly the United Kingdom and the United States—often appears as a frustrating paradox. They speak in lofty terms of democracy, human rights, and stability, yet their actions consistently prop up a regime in Addis Ababa that is the primary engine of violence and instability in the Horn of Africa. The emerging understanding between the Amhara Fano Freedom Fighters and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) represents a critical juncture. It is a moment that demands the West finally open its eyes and see this development not as a threat to its narrow interests, but as the only genuine potential pathway to a sustainable peace. They must end their misguided and morally bankrupt support for Abiy Ahmed’s regime. An Amhara adage speaks directly to this need for clear-sightedness: “የተጋረጠ ውሃ ማጥመድ አይቻልም” (Yätegarete wiha mat’emed ayichalim) – “You cannot mix water that has been separated.” The regime and the people are irrevocably separated; the West’s continued attempts to mix them through support for the former only perpetuates the conflict.

The current Western policy is not just flawed; it is actively destructive for several reasons:

1. Backing the Wrong Horse:
The UK and US continue to offer diplomatic cover, financial aid, and strategic legitimacy to a regime that has lost all moral and political authority. By viewing Abiy Ahmed as the sole guarantor of a fictional ‘stability,’ they are investing in a sinking ship. This support empowers the regime to continue its brutal campaigns, providing a veneer of international acceptability as it commits atrocities in Amhara and Oromia. Every bullet, every birr, and every word of diplomatic support from the West is filtered through the regime’s machinery of oppression.

2. Misreading the Pact as a Threat:
A shortsighted Western analysis might view the Fano-OLA dialogue through a simplistic lens of ‘extremism’ or ‘fragmentation,’ fearing it will lead to the ‘Balkanisation’ of Ethiopia. This is a profound error. This pact is not the cause of fragmentation; it is a response to it. The regime’s divisive policies have already shattered the nation. This alliance is a first, tentative step by the major oppressed groups to manage that fragmentation and create a new, bottom-up consensus. It is the only credible effort to forge a stability that isn’t imposed by the barrel of a gun but negotiated by those with the power to stop the fighting.

3. The Pathway They Are Ignoring:
The West must recognise that true, lasting stability will never come from a victory of the regime over its people. It can only come from a political settlement that includes the key actors who control the ground and command popular support—namely, the Fano and the OLA. By continuing to isolate and condemn these groups as ‘militias’ or ‘insurgents,’ the West is deliberately excluding the very actors necessary for any meaningful negotiation. It is trying to solve an equation by ignoring its most critical variables.

A Necessary Shift in Perspective:

The UK and US must undertake a fundamental reassessment:

• See the Freedom Fighters as Political Actors: They must move beyond the reductive counter-terrorism lens and recognise the Fano and OLA for what they are: massive popular resistance movements with legitimate political grievances and clear demands. They are not mindless spoilers; they are the representatives of millions of Ethiopians who have been brutally excluded from the political process.

• Acknowledge the Regime as the Primary Obstacle to Peace: Western diplomacy must finally accept that the Abiy Ahmed regime is the principal spoiler of peace. Its refusal to engage in inclusive dialogue, its reliance on violence, and its strategy of ethnic division are the root causes of the ongoing conflict.

• Condition and Redirect Support: All financial and diplomatic support to the Ethiopian government must be immediately conditioned on verifiable steps towards an inclusive, internationally mediated negotiation with all parties to the conflict, including the Fano and OLA. The goal must be a transitional arrangement, not the reinforcement of the status quo.

The message from the Ethiopian revolution must be clear to London and Washington: Your current policy is not promoting stability; it is financing a war against the Ethiopian people. You are on the wrong side of history. The water has separated. Stop trying to mix it. Instead, use your influence to support the only viable process that can lead to a genuine and lasting peace: a negotiated political settlement that acknowledges the new reality we are building from the ground up. The time to choose between a dictator and the people is now.

20. A Beacon of Hope: The Light in the Long Night

In the profound darkness that has enveloped Ethiopia—a darkness wrought by division, violence, and the cynical politics of despair—a single, flickering light has appeared. For all its fragility, its internal contradictions, and the immense challenges that lie ahead, the nascent understanding between the Amhara Fano Freedom Fighters and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) is far more than a tactical military accord. It is a beacon of hope. It represents the first, tentative flicker of a pan-Ethiopian resistance that dares to transcend the bitter poison of ethnic nationalism, proving to a weary nation that a different future, forged in the shared desire for freedom, is not just a dream, but a tangible possibility. This fragile flame calls to mind a deeply resonant Oromo adage: “ᎢᏳᎾᏚᎵ ያለው ሰው ያልተወለደ ልጅ አይወለድም” (Iyynadulī yalew sew yaletewelede lij ayweledem) – “A person who has hope will not give birth to a child who is not born.” It is the defiant belief that from the struggle of today, a better tomorrow can be born.

This pact is a beacon for several profound reasons:

1. It Shatters the Regime’s Fundamental Lie:
For years, the Abiy Ahmed regime has built its power on a single, vicious premise: that Ethiopians are inherently divided, that ancient ethnic hatreds are insurmountable, and that only the firm, often brutal, hand of central authority can prevent the nation from tearing itself apart. This narrative paints the Fano and OLA as mere manifestations of these atavistic ethnic impulses. Their decision to seek a dialogue, to silence their guns against one another, shatters this lie into a thousand pieces. It proves that the primary division in Ethiopia is not between Amhara and Oromo, but between the ruling elite and the oppressed people. It reveals that the deepest desire of the people is not for ethnic supremacy, but for universal dignity and freedom from tyranny.

2. It creates a New Political Imagination:
Before this moment, the political imagination of the resistance was constrained. The future seemed to offer only a binary, devastating choice: either the continued oppression of the Prosperity Party or a bloody, endless conflict between competing nationalisms that would destroy the nation. This pact, however tentative, opens a third way. It allows Ethiopians, for the first time in years, to dare to imagine a future where their identities are not weapons turned against each other, but parts of a richer, more complex whole. It demonstrates that solidarity is possible, that common ground can be found, and that the bonds of shared suffering can be stronger than the walls of division built by the regime.

3. It Validates the People’s Yearning for Peace:
The common men and women in the villages of Gojam and the towns of Wollega are not ideologues; they are victims. They crave an end to the violence that has stolen their children, destroyed their livelihoods, and forced them to live in perpetual fear. This ceasefire, above all else, is a victory for them. It is a direct response to their silent, desperate prayers for respite. It shows that the Freedom Fighters are not mere instruments of war, but are listening to the people they claim to represent. This alignment of the resistance’s strategy with the people’s deepest yearning for peace is the true source of its moral power and its revolutionary hope.

4. It lays a Foundation, However Unsteady:
This is not a final solution. It is a foundation—cracked, uneven, and hastily laid—but a foundation nonetheless. It is the proof of concept that dialogue is possible. It creates a channel of communication where none existed before. It establishes a minimal level of trust that can be nurtured, however slowly, into something more substantial. From this point, no matter what happens, the idea that these two forces can talk is now a fact in the world. It is a reference point that all future political efforts can return to.

For the Ethiopian Revolutionary Freedom Fighter, this is the essence of the struggle: to Kindle hope where there is despair, and to offer a vision of light in the deepest darkness. This pact is that first, crucial spark. It is the evidence that the long night will not last forever. It is the defiant promise that the children of this generation will not inherit the same hatreds that plagued their parents, but might instead be born into a dawn forged by our courage, our sacrifice, and our unwavering belief that together, we are capable of greatness. The beacon is lit. It is now our solemn duty to ensure it is not extinguished.

Conclusion: The Fragile Vessel and the Distant Shore

The path ahead is mined with distrust, shadowed by the spectre of regime-sponsored violence, and fraught with the peril of historical grievances yet to be reconciled. The pact between the Amhara Fano Freedom Fighters and the Oromo Liberation Army is not a sturdy bridge to peace, but a fragile vessel launched onto a stormy sea. Its timbers are hewn from necessity, not trust; its sails are filled by the winds of shared desperation against a common tyrant. Yet, for the first time in years of darkness, this vessel carries a tangible, precious cargo: the hope of reaching a shore beyond the brutal and divisive rule of Abiy Ahmed.

This is not, and must never be framed as, a project of Amhara or Oromo supremacy. Such a narrow view plays directly into the regime’s divisive playbook. This is about Ethiopians from every nation and nationality—from the Ogaden to the Agew lands, from the Gurage homelands to the Sidama highlands—finally recognising the fundamental truth that has been obscured by a fog of propaganda: that their true enemy does not reside in a neighbouring village, but in a palace in Addis Ababa. It is the enemy that weaponises poverty, that orchestrates ethnic violence, and that rules through the fear of the other.

The question now transcends whether this specific alliance can hold. The more profound question is whether the Ethiopian people, in all their magnificent diversity, can see the greater truth this pact represents: that our strength has never lain in our isolation, but in our unity. That our liberation will not be won by a single group in isolation, but achieved together, or it will not be achieved at all. An Amhara adage offers both a warning and a guide for this very moment: “አንድ በትር በቀላሉ ይቀለብሳል፥ አንድ ጅማሬ በቀላሉ አይሰበርም” (And beṭir bekelalut yikelebisal, and jimare bekelalut ayiseberim) – “A single stick is easily broken, but a bundle of sticks is not easily broken.”

The Fano-OLA understanding is the first, crucial attempt to bind those sticks together. Its success or failure will determine the next chapter of Ethiopian history. The regime will pour all its resources into splintering this bundle, using lies, violence, and the deep-seated fears it itself implanted.

The battle for Ethiopia has indeed entered a new, decisive chapter. It is a battle fought not only with bullets but with wisdom, with discipline, and with an unwavering commitment to the higher ideal of a nation free from the scourge of tyranny. The world is watching. But more importantly, the Ethiopian people are watching. They wait for a sign that their suffering has not been in vain, that their hope for a dawn of genuine freedom is justified.

This fragile vessel must now navigate the storm. It is our collective duty to ensure it does not capsize, for it carries upon it the dreams of millions. The shore of a free Ethiopia may be distant, but for the first time in a long time, it is now visible on the horizon.

ViVa Fano Freedom Fighters!

Viva Oromo Liberation Army!

Viva Ethiopia!

Ethiopia Autonomous Media

Media Without Borders

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Ethiopia Autonomous Media

• Ethiopia

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  The Spiritual Core of Gifata: Thanksgiving & Renewal in Wolayita Culture
• Ethiopia

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  Fano Communique: North Eastern Command in Disarray After Fano’s Multi-Front Offensive
• Ethiopia

  https://ethiopia.me.uk/members/joramedia/

  FANO Freedom Fighters Neutralise Traitor Burqa Gurmes in Merhabete Operation
• Ethiopia

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  Abiy Ahmed’s Military Purge: ethnic Stacking in the Ethiopian Army

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